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Week 6 College Football Picks: Where's the Smart Money Going?

Jeff GrantOct 6, 2011

College football bettors now have five weeks of data to analyze, and this is normally the most profitable time of year for professionals.

Las Vegas bookmakers are still reporting massive handles on Saturdays, and that will only increase as fans anticipate the upcoming BCS standings on Oct. 16

Let's take a closer look at five teams that have drawn interest from smart money in Week 6.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions (-3.5)

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Penn State is definitely a program that garners at least two points in terms of home-field advantage, which actually signified that Iowa was originally favored in this contest.

Oddsmakers opened up the Nittany Lions as 1.5-point favored, and it was quickly bet up two full points by Monday's close.

Sometimes lines are driven up in this manner to get a better price on the underdog, but that's thrown out the window when over 70 percent of wagers are coming in on that side.

The public is still fearful of laying points on a side that lost to Alabama and struggled against Temple in consecutive weeks.

Iowa's standing has gone up in the betting market from a public perspective due to its win over Pittsburgh, who beat South Florida on national television last week.

Did anybody tell them that the Panthers let the Hawkeyes off the hook in that contest?

October is Joe Paterno's best month recently, leading his team to an 18-7-2 ATS record.

Smart money is squarely on the Nittany Lions.

Temple Owls (-9) at Ball State Cardinals

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Who would back a team that just lost its last game by a 62-6 margin, failing to cover as 39.5-point road underdogs?

Smart money.

Buy low, sell high.

Sound familiar?

Temple is a solid 11-3 ATS on the road over the last two-plus seasons, but has been a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points just three times since the 1992 season.

Ball State is on a 2-11 ATS run when playing as host, but has been a home underdog of this kind just once over that same span.

The Owls opened as 11-point road favorites, and that number has plummeted by 2.5 points.

A similar move was found three weeks ago when Temple hosted Penn State—I wonder who was the underdog in that contest?

You get the drift.

Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-10)

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Often times in the world of sports betting, you really have to analyze what the oddsmaker is doing.

Take, for instance, Auburn vs. Arkansas on Saturday.

The Razorbacks are a double-digit favorite after completing a second-half comeback against the Texas A&M Aggies, eventually winning 42-38 as 2.5-point neutral-site underdogs.

Auburn is coming off a 16-13 victory over South Carolina as 10.5-point road underdogs.

So why the 10-point spread?

With a majority of wagers coming in on the Tigers, the betting odds on this contest have stayed fixed at 10 for the most part.

In taking a closer look, smart money made a significant move to drive the number down to nine in a matter of 20 minutes, only to jump back onto the Razorbacks.

Smart money will also love that the Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS as a favorite, while the Tigers are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

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Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecocks (-21)

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Gotta give the oddsmakers credit on this one, as Connor Shaw moving back into the starting quarterback role at South Carolina did absolutely nothing to this line.

Normally, such a move would cause a rush to the window to bet the underdog.

Smart money knows that Gamecocks head coach Steve Spurrier already thinks more highly of Shaw over Stephen Garcia, as he was named the starter heading into the season opener.

Things didn't work out so well versus East Carolina, but you get the picture.

South Carolina has revenge on its mind from a 31-28 loss in last year's meeting, while also posting a 5-1 ATS record following a straight-up loss.

Kentucky is 1-6 ATS as a road underdog.

TCU Horned Frogs (-4) at San Diego State Aztecs

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San Diego State has had this game marked on the schedule since it nearly upset TCU on the road a year ago, falling 40-35 as 27.5-point underdogs.

Smart money notices that the Aztecs have had two full weeks to prepare for this game, while the Horned Frogs dropped a 40-33 contest to the SMU Mustangs as 13-point home favorites.

Even more problematic for the traveler is that it needed to expend an incredible amount of energy to send the game to overtime, scoring 23 points in the final quarter.

Professional handicappers love a game that features a team that has no chance of fulfilling its seasonal goals against a program looking for a signature win.

That's exactly the situation that represents itself on Saturday night in Southern California.

They Control the NBA This Summer ✍️

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