MLB Playoff Predictions: X-Factors for ALCS and NLCS

This year’s baseball playoffs seem to be as unpredictable and difficult to call as any year I can recall.  Every time I examine the eight teams and the current and possible matchups ahead of time, it’s really hard to separate the favorites from the teams that have no chance.  

Conventional wisdom would tell you to give the Rays little chance given they had to come the furthest to get into the playoffs and have the least “sexy” roster of all. Despite proving time and time again that they cannot be ruled out, they were eliminated by the Rangers. The Phillies, on the other hand, based on their roster on paper deserve to be declared the favorite, but there are several teams that could conceivably oust them in a series. 

So as we near the completion of the Division Series, it is no easy task to handicap the favorites, but I will try to identify the X-factors for each of the possible matchups going into the next round.

1. Rangers vs. Yankees: Rangers Starting Pitching

After winning their first-round matchup with the Rays, if the Rangers end up playing the Yankees, it is hard to not give them a chance given how they handled a similar Yankee team in the playoffs last year and are able to match strength with strength with the Yankees like no other team in the playoffs. 

The X-factor in this series will be the Rangers pitching.  If the Rangers can pitch up to their ability and deliver games to their bullpen against the Yankees, they have a strong chance of returning to the World Series again.  Both teams can “rake” with the best of them, but the Yankees pitching staff clearly is their weakness.  The Rangers have a bit more depth with CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison. 

The Yankees have the best starting pitcher in the series in CC Sabathia, but given the youth of upstart Ivan Nova and the erratic pitching of the rest of the staff, the Rangers are set up to have an advantage here.  The question is: Can they carry it out?

2. Rangers vs. Tigers: Justin Verlander

The Rangers would be in for an interesting matchup with the Detroit Tigers.  Like the Yankees, the Rangers were extremely difficult to beat at home.  Both teams won an AL-leading 52 games at home.  The Tigers on the other hand, boasted the AL’s strongest road record, tied with the Yankees and Red Sox, winning 45 games. 

The main X-factor in this seven-game series may be Justin Verlander.  This year, Verlander has made a strong case for himself as the best pitcher in the game.  With a longer series that is a bit more spaced out, Verlander may have the opportunity to raise his star status to another level and perform on the big stage in as many as three starts in this series.  He was not dominant in his lone start against the Rangers this year, but he did pitch a complete game giving up two ER and striking out four. 

If Verlander is on his game and locates his filthy “stuff” well, he may be one of the few pitchers in the game that can tame this highly potent lineup that the Rangers have.  On paper, the Tigers cannot keep up with the Rangers offense, but in the postseason, pitching can make a huge difference. 

3. Phillies vs. Brewers: Brewers Must Get a Win on the Road

To me, this is the most intriguing matchup of the Championship Series round.  The Phillies are the heavy favorite, as they came into the season as the “paper champions” of the National League, and backed it up with a dominant 102-win season led by their formidable starting rotation. 

The key in this series for the energetic and fun-loving Brewers that have been phenomenal at home all season is to get a win on the road in Philadelphia and find away to oust one of the Phillies’ Cy Young winners on their home field.  If they can do that, the Brewers will be positioned well to go home and play in front of an electric crowd that helped them to a major league-leading 57-win home record. 

The road does not intimidate the Phillies though, as they led the majors with 50 wins.  In a seven-game series, the Brewers must slay the dragon in Philly and then ride their home momentum in the middle games.  The Brewers have to like their chances with three home games in a row against the Phillies, especially if they come back 1-1. 

Conversely, if the Phillies can get up on the Brewers early in Milwaukee and take the crowd and their confidence away, they will have a lot easier of a time winning the series.

4. Phillies vs. Diamondbacks: Starting Pitching Depth

If the Diamondbacks are to upset the Brewers in Milwaukee, it will have been because of an outstanding pitching performance by ace Ian Kennedy.  The Diamondbacks have a lot of young and vibrant bats, but can their pitching carry them given they will have limited services from Kennedy? 

I think the X-factor is that despite the fact that the Phillies are in the same predicament with Halladay, they have three more ace-quality starters deserving of a Game 1 start to throw at the D'Backs in a series in which Halladay is pushed back.  It’s no secret that the Phillies have great starting pitching depth, and this series would exhibit it as much as any other.

5. Cardinals vs. Brewers: Brewers' Home-Field Advantage

Should the Cardinals upset the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies, the Cardinals would be faced with the task of playing the team that won their division with relative ease this year and dominated the matchup early in the season to gain distance in the division race. 

One way or another, it seems that the Brewers matched up well against the Cardinals this year and the advantage was amplified at home.  The one concern is that after a great start against the Cardinals early, they struggled against the Brewers over the course of the last two months going 1-5 to even up the series. 

In this series, however, I believe that home-field advantage would be the X-factor.  The Brewers have it, and I believe this will be the difference in the series.

6. Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks: Arizona Starting Pitching Edge

It is safe to say that this matchup would likely be the least desirable.  However, both teams do have solid pitching and fairly potent lineups.  The X-factor is that if the Diamondbacks starting pitching can out-duel the Cardinals pitching and keep the Cardinals' dangerous lineup at bay, the D'Backs could be in for a World Series run. 

Who Will It Be?

I predict that the Phillies will meet up in a great matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers and the Texas Rangers will meet the New York Yankees. 

The Phillies just are too destined to stumble now and the Brewers are tough to beat at home.

On the other side, the Rangers are already in the ALCS and I feel the Yankees will have another offensive explosion at home in the unseasonably warm temperatures in the Bronx.

Who Will Advance to the World Series?

It is very hard to make a call this early, but my gut tells me that the Rangers will out-slug and out-pitch the Yankees because they seem to have their number in a playoff setting.  The Yankees did win the season series 7-2, but I feel the Rangers can survive quiet bats better than the Yankees can. 

I think this year is a special year for the Brewers and if they can win a game or two in Philadelphia, I feel that they can overcome their regular-season woes against their opponent as well and make this a special season.  They have lightning in a bottle and I believe in them.

The Phillies seem like almost too easy of a choice and baseball seems to always throw twists.  With that said, if the Phillies lineup hits like they should and the pitching staff pitches like they should, they should be able to advance pretty easily.