Roy Halladay vs. Chris Carpenter: Breaking Down Key Game 5 Pitching Matchup

Bud Selig and Major League Baseball have lucked out big time in the early stages of this year’s playoffs.  It appears that the first round of the playoffs, which often seem to end in three or four games, will have THREE Game 5s this week.  Going in, I felt that all eight teams had the capability to make some noise in the playoffs, and knew that anything could happen.  This has played itself out in full effect as the Cardinals have come out of nowhere, barely sneaking into the playoffs, and now are the prohibitive favorites to win the World Series on the ropes in the first round.

After a big 5-3 win today in St. Louis to extend the series, the Cardinals now can feel quite confident going into Citizens Bank Park, where they won a game just a few days ago.  They have their ace, Chris Carpenter, on the mound and two of baseball's hottest bats this season in superstar Albert Pujols and resurgent Lance Berkman.  As an added bonus, Matt Holliday is back in the lineup as well to give them an extra boost. 

The Phillies have no reason to fear playing a Game 5 on their home field with all of the talent they have on their roster.  Nevertheless, there have to be some regrets for having not put away this team so that they can reset their rotation and stay fresh for the next round.

Oftentimes experiencing adversity early can help mold teams that are deemed as the favorite, having been locked into coast mode for an extended period of time at the end of the season after wrapping up their division and obtaining the best record in the NL early.

If you like pitchers duels, you have to be pleased with the matchup set up for us on Friday.  Outside of Verlander and Sabathia matching up in a Game 5 in the Bronx, which won't happen, there is no better pairing that could be assembled for a decisive game.  Two Cy Young winners that head quality staffs and have been successful in the playoffs are going at it with everything on the line.  Halladay has proven that he can throw a no-hitter in the playoffs, as he did last season, and Carpenter has been fairly solid in the playoffs as well, especially during the 2006 title run.

Halladay, the ace of the best staff in baseball, finished this season with a 19-6 record with a 2.35 ERA, which was second in MLB behind Clayton Kershaw.

Halladay just missed becoming a 20-game winner in both of his first two seasons, pitching with the highly touted Phillies.  Due to the fact that he was stuck in Toronto for several years without playoff appearances, he has only made four playoff starts, but he has been effective.  He is 3-1 with 2.72 ERA.  You cannot find many that are more dominant and consistent than Doc Halladay. 

On the other hand, Chris Carpenter had a good year, but nothing that compares to Roy Halladay.  He was 11-9 with 3.45 ERA with 191 strikeouts.  He did not fare particularly well in Game 2, in which he went three innings and gave up four runs.

But over the course of his career, Carpenter has been pretty solid in the playoffs (5-2, 3.38 ERA).  The 2005 CY Young Award winner is capable of pitching a gem on any occasion and with Adam Wainright down, Carpenter is considered the ace of this staff despite Kyle Lohse’s comparable performance in 2011.

Not only have the Cardinals been playing great baseball over the last month or so, earning them a spot in the playoffs by the smallest of margins, but they have also been encouraged by their being able to touch up Halladay.  Early in Game 1, Lance Berkman hit three runs off Halladay.  It took the Phillies until the sixth inning to take the lead that propelled them to a 1-0 lead in the series.

A lesson must be learned about capitalizing on such opportunities, however.  After Halladay settled, he ended up retiring the last 21 batters he faced in the game, striking out eight in eight innings.

It’s hard to bet against Halladay in a big game like this that will decide whether or not the Phillies advance into the next round.  The game is at home, where Doc will no doubt get a boost from the home crowd on multiple two-strike counts, and the hitters should be ready to go where they have hit significantly better thus far in the playoffs.  They struggled in St. Louis during this series hitting .212 at Busch, which is tied for last in the playoffs thus far.  Conversely, they are among the leaders with a solid .294 avg in their home ballpark during the playoffs. 

The Cardinals have been a bit better on the road, best in the playoffs thus far ironically, which should help them, but I am looking for the Phillies, led by a strong performance by their ace Halladay, and some timely run support from their potent lineup to come out on top and advance to the next round.  It is hard to overcome the best pitcher in baseball and a cast of characters that have made it at least to the championship series the last three years.