Roger Federer Could Launch to New Heights in 2009

With the 2008 tennis season now complete, it is no surprise that many are reviewing and previewing, assessing and guessing, judging and predicting this year and the next.

It has been a fascinating and an uplifting 12 months for fans of tennis. With a new cast of exciting athletes stepping into the limelight, there are great rivalries and fluctuating fortunes; real drama and new benchmarks in quality.

And at the centre of much of this drama has been the ever-present icon of Federer: the sun around whom the other players orbit. But has he burnt out? Or will he burn brighter again in 2009?

I began to record my year with Roger in order to preserve my personal Wimbledon story like a piece of glowing amber. But his story took me by the hand to an entirely unexpected and wonderful conclusion in Shanghai. His journey from the very first month to the penultimate one of 2008 was tumultuous and unexpected, plunging and soaring.

I followed in his path, holding onto his shirt tails with clenched fingers, some tears, and many thrills.

Thinking back to the start of the season, I remember an interview with John McEnroe after Roger’s 2007 Shanghai victory, closing the year as No. 1 again, counting down the slams towards Sampras’ record. JMac—often blunt but usually astute and an inveterate admirer of Roger—believed that, yes, he could do it all again in 2008 and add the grand slam record to his bulging portfolio. Then JMac added something to the effect that "this is always supposing the hunger stays and the body holds up.”

When Roger's losses began, the first surprise being his capitulation of the Australian title, it was clear to anyone who has been absorbed by this magician’s game and demeanor that there was something physical amiss. But the media—and some tennis experts too—questioned his hunger.

So it was almost a relief to have the confirmation of glandular fever. It explained so much: the food poisoning in Australia, the heavy-footedness at Melbourne, and later the shock of that inflamed cyst attached like an alien to the slant of his cheekbone.

But the diagnosis did not silence the baying critics, possibly because Roger’s work ethic ensured he continued with the required tournaments, media, ATP and sponsor commitments. However, he was clearly tired. Nadal was eating away at his ranking points, Djokovic was preening from his first Slam victory and further Masters success.

New stars were picking him off—not least Murray. He lost his Hamburg title and then the vultures started to gather over Roland Garros, where a fatigued Roger put a valiant face on a dreadful loss.

So the year went on. Wimbledon, the Olympic title, and No. 1 ranking fell in succession, yet still he stayed upbeat and worked hard. He looked tired and drawn through the summer hard court tournaments and eventually stepped off the treadmill at Stockholm.

Some (probably myself included) thought he should stay away from Madrid. Missing Paris may have saved him from injury and brought a different result at Shanghai. So many ‘what ifs…’. But he needs, in an almost primordial way, to be playing and, this year in particular, to prove to his critics that he is the best in the game.

Now I’m the least likely of his admirers to be optimistic and upbeat—it's not in my nature and may explain why I find Roger’s attitude so compelling. But let's view the season through a different tint of spectacles.

2008 has been a year of great results even without glandular fever. Semifinal in one slam, finals in two more, and triumphant at the fourth. He won titles at Estoril and his beloved Basel, and reached finals at several clay court events. Remember the state of his health, and yet he won doubles gold at the Olympics and led the Swiss to Davis Cup success.

Only Rafa exceeded these results and he has won nothing since he took the No 1 spot. And his body gave out well before Shanghai.

By every measure, Roger has excelled. And there’s another beacon shining forward to 2009. He has played some of his best tennis in the last months of the year.

His dismissal of Djokovic and Murray at Flushing Meadow was achieved with some of his best shot-making this season—the trademark of power, sublime touch, and grace united in one supreme package.

The same quality permeated a magnificent display against Nalbandian in Switzerland. And his play in Shanghai was as good as any I’ve seen. Had his back and his depleted system allowed half a dozen of his usual serves, he would have won—and against the only player currently on the tour with an all-round game that comes close to Roger’s.

Another thing that has struck me since I returned home to review my hundreds of photos from Qi Zhong is that, despite the back pain and the tiredness, Roger actually looked extremely fit. He was playing long, long rallies and running down drop shots and drives with ease.

The muscles, though they clearly began to hurt more as the match went on, looked lean and highly defined, most particularly in the legs. The torso was finely tuned; the skin was blemish-free; the hair fulsome and glossy. All good indicators of underlying health.

Remember, too, that Murray crashed out with exhaustion as a result of this energy-sapping match. Roddick could not complete the tournament, so Djokovic, who had made little progress since the summer, had enough resources to win the event. If Roger can perform like he did with injury and illness, woe betide the rest of the field in January.

There are questions about how Roger will approach the next year, how he will begin his Australia preparations, whether he will reduce his media commitments. There is no question, though, that after his winter rest and recuperation, he will come back strong.

Yes, the challengers will also be rested, hungry and keen to maintain their gains. A handful are on a rising curve and still improving: not just Murray but also Simon, Tsonga, maybe Monfils or Cilic.

If Nadal stays injury-free, his game is still developing. If Djokovic can sort out his stamina and endurance, he too will be a huge threat. But Roger's appetite will be sharpened by the fresh incentive of regaining his top ranking and grand slam titles. And don't underestimate the joy he clearly derives from playing—and winning.

So roll on 2009. It’s going to be a cracking year for men’s tennis.