2011 MLB Playoffs: Why Ivan Nova Will Get the Yankees to the ALCS

We are within 24 hours of Game 5 of the ALDS between the Yankees and the Tigers.

On Tuesday night, A.J. Burnett saved the season for the Yankees by pitching very well en route to a 10-1 Game 4 win over Detroit.

Now, the season rests in the hands of the 24-year-old, Ivan Nova, who will take the ball on Thursday night.

On Wednesday, we saw someone write a story saying Ivan Nova would blow up and lose the game and series for the Yankees.

There was no insight, no facts and no observations as to why Nova would lose beyond it being the author's own opinion—and, if you saw the comments section, nobody took the article seriously.

This story is the counter of that one. And, it's not only my own opinion, but backed up with facts and numbers.

Here is why Nova will get the Yankees past the Tigers and onto the ALCS against the Texas Rangers.

His Game 1 Start vs Detroit

Game 1 was originally started by CC Sabathia, but because of the rain on Friday night, it suspended the game and had it resume on Saturday night.

Nova, who was originally slated to be the Game 2 starter, took over for Sabathia in relief, and dominated the Tigers hitters.

Nova pitched 6.1 innings, allowed four hits, two runs, walked four, struck out five and got the win, his first ever postseason win.

Nova only gave up a few runs in the ninth inning as he was tiring out, but, by that time, the game was well out of reach for the Tigers.

Nova didn't back down from any of the hitters on Detroit and attacked them all game, and the victory was a result of it.

If Nova continues to challenge the Detroit hitters, he should continue the same success on Thursday that he had on Saturday

Doug Fister Is Pitching Game 5 for the Tigers

Nova will be facing off against Doug Fister in Game 5, the same pitcher he faced when Game 1 resumed.

Fister, who came in 7-0 with an ERA under 1.00 for Detroit, got absolutely smacked around against the Yankees.

Fister lasted 4.2, allowed seven hits, six runs, walked two and struck out six.

Fister put on a lot of runners, which lead to Al Alburquerque being put in and allowing the grand slam to Robinson Cano, which blew the game wide open for the Yankees.

Fister's record on the road isn't that promising either; 5-7.

His career record against the Yankees isn't either; 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in 18 innings.

Justin Verlander Is Not Scheduled to Pitch at All in Game 5

Tigers manager Jim Leyland has said that he will not pitch ace Justin Verlander out of the bullpen if needed.

We saw what he did to the Yankees in Game 3.

Eight innings, allowed six hits, four runs, struck out 11 and won the game.

Nobody on the Yankees wants to see Verlander on the mound in Game 5.

As far as the rest of the Tigers bullpen goes, that's a different story.

If Leyland sticks to not using Verlander, it might end up costing them the series.

Ivan Nova Is Pitching at Yankee Stadium

Pitching at Yankee Stadium should be in favor of Nova and the Yankees—Nova's record pitching in the Bronx in 2011: 8-2 with a 4.11 ERA.

Plus, throw in that Nova is also 1-0 with a 2.84 in the postseason too at Yankee Stadium.

If he were pitching in Comerica Park, I might feel a little differently about Nova in Game 5. But, with the crowd on his side, pitching in his building, I like Nova on the mound.

June 3, 2011

Anyone know the significance of that date?

If not, it's OK, it's the last time Ivan Nova lost a game.

Nova lost on June 3 to the Los Angeles Angels, pitching six innings, allowing eight hits and three runs in a 3-2 loss for the Yankees.

Not exactly a game where he got shelled; he lost a pitchers-duel type game.

Since then, Nova is 13-0, including Game 1 of the ALDS.

And, since June 3, Nova is also 7-0 pitching at home at Yankee Stadium.

To say that Nova has had a tremendous 2011 season is an under-statement.

And remember, Nova got sent down to AAA for nearly a month back in July.

Since his return to the majors on July 30: 9-0.

Seeing these numbers, I really like Nova's chances in Game 5.

The Yankees History of a Game 5 at Home

The Yankees have played several Game 5's in their history of the ALDS, going back to 1995.

In 1995, they lost to the Seattle Mariners on the road.

In 1997, they lost to the Cleveland Indians on the road.

In 2000, they beat the Oakland A's on the road.

In 2005, they lost to the Los Angeles Angels on the road.

But in 2001, they played Game 5 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium against the Oakland A's.

The Yankees had Roger Clemens pitching against Mark Mulder.

David Justice put the game out of reach with a sixth inning home run off Mulder that gave the Yankees a 5-3 lead, the Yankees bullpen shut down the Oakland offense the rest of the way and the Yankees beat Oakland and moved onto the ALCS to play the Mariners.

OK, granted, that game was 10 years ago.

But, with an elimination game at Yankee Stadium, I still like the Yankees to beat Detroit at home.

Prediction

When I originally did my series preview of the ALDS, I picked the Yankees to win over the Tigers in five games.

And here we are, with a Game 5 on our hands.

And I'm sticking to my prediction.

I am picking the Yankees to win Game 5 6-2, knock off the Tigers in the ALDS and move on to the ALCS to play the Texas Rangers in a rematch from 2010.