Looking Ahead to the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Most fans of the San Francisco 49ers are jumping for joy after a great road win against the Philadelphia Eagles.  I have been somewhat pessimistic about this team since training camp, where I picked them to go 4-12 on the season.

Since the 49ers need only two more wins to make me eat crow, I have sallied up to the table, put on my napkin and I am ready to chow down.  I just hope that I don’t get too many feathers stuck in my teeth. 

Now that I have finished my carrion bird sandwich, I think that I can move on with some things to look forward to in the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Positive No. 1: Finding a Way to Win

In the two-week East Coast road trip, the 49ers did not look good for large chunks of each game.  In the game against the Cincinnati Bengals, the offense never really got on track and only managed 13 points.

But that was enough against the No. 1 defense in the NFL (no joke).  The 49ers scored with 5:05 left in the fourth quarter and protected the lead. 

Against the Philadelphia Eagles they didn’t quit, evidenced by the timeout Coach Harbaugh took with one second left in the first half. 

According to Jim Mora Jr., it was a mind-boggling decision, but I believe that it was Harbaugh’s way of showing his team that he was going to fight for every second that he was given. 

In the end, the defense and the offense both stepped up and found a way to win–again.  If the 49ers keep up the magic that they have shown in the last two weeks, they have a very good chance to beat the Buccaneers.

Positive No. 2: Defense

The defense was stellar against the Bengals and did enough to win in Philadelphia.  There are some causes for concern (see later slides), but the 49ers have played the Cowboys and the Eagles, who are currently ranked number six and number four, respectively, in total offense.

Despite having some issues on defense, the squad has put itself in a position to win each week.  They will have a test in Week 5 because the Buccaneers may have the best quarterback (since Josh Freeman is not fighting injuries) and best running game they have faced all year. 

Freeman is a consistent quarterback that does not get a lot of hype because he plays in Tampa Bay.  But he has thrown for 969 yards this year and is really due for a breakout game. 

In addition, LeGarrette Blount is an absolute beast.  If the defense can stand tall early and force the Bucs to be one-dimensional, they should have a good shot.

Positive No. 3: Offensive Improvement

The offense got out of the basement in Week 4 by racking up 442 total yards (164 rushing and 278 passing), moving their average up from 213 yards per game to 270. 

Alex Smith was a little more consistent and, most importantly, the team did not quit.  In Week 4, the Buccaneers gave up 318 yards at home to the struggling Indianapolis Colts.  It is reasonable to assume that the 49ers will be able to move the ball against the Buccaneers on Sunday.

Cause for Concern No. 1: The Big Play

The 49ers gave up too many big plays against both the Cowboys and the Eagles.  The Buccaneers do not have all the offensive weapons that Dallas and Philadelphia have, but Josh Freeman is a big, strong quarterback that can extend the play and get the ball downfield for big gains. 

The 49ers are going to have to get to the quarterback quickly and get him down when they get there in order to prevent the big play on Sunday.  If not, there is a real risk of falling behind early.

Cause for Concern No. 2: Slow Starts

In the last two weeks the 49ers have not started off well.  It did not hurt them too much against the Bengals because they only had a 3-0 halftime deficit.  However, they were down 20-3 at the half against the Eagles, which cannot happen this week. 

As mentioned earlier, LeGarrette Blount is a beast, and he will pound the 49ers into submission if they get behind early.  The good news is that the 49ers are at home and the Buccaneers are traveling cross-country on a short week. 

If either team were going to get off to a slow start, I would anticipate that it would be the Bucs.  But the 49ers have to be successful in the first and second quarters to avoid a potentially ugly second half.

Cause for Concern No. 3: 3rd Down and Maintaining Drives

The 49ers were not terrible on third down against the Eagles, going 5-of-12 for a 41 percent conversion rate. 

However, many of those conversions were in the second half and the 49ers cannot afford a slow start on Sunday.  On the year, the 49ers have only completed 19-of-55 third down attempts and are 20^th in the league at 34 percent. 

Hopefully, they can continue to improve on offense and keep the third down percentage somewhere between 40-50 percent while keeping the defense off the field. 

Otherwise, Tampa Bay has a good shot of wearing down the defense over the course of the game with power running.

Cause for Concern No. 4: The Offensive Line

The 49ers have given up 14 sacks already this year for an average of 3.5 per game.  In the game last Sunday against the Eagles, they surrendered three sacks and numerous hits on Alex Smith.  

Every fan knows that no quarterback can be successful when he is on his back.  In addition, the offensive line has been inconsistent on running plays, looking really great at times and really mediocre on others.

If Smith can get the ball out a little quicker and the line can play more consistently they will be okay.  The good news is that the Buccaneers only have 10 sacks on the season, which gives the offensive line a chance to keep Smith’s shirt clean.

Prediction

The 49ers open as a 1-point favorite at home according to the Las Vegas odds makers, which essentially makes this a pick’em game.  However, the Buccaneers are still a young team who just came off a Monday Night Football win. They now have to travel to the west coast.

Sunday’s game seems like a letdown game for the pirates in pewter pants.  As long as the 49ers avoid the slow start, something they have done in both their home games this year, they should be able to jump on the Bucs early. 

The second half performances in the last two road games illustrate that this team is beginning to figure out how to win.  The Bucs did not play particularly well in their one road game of the season (a 24-20 comeback win against the 0-4 Vikings), so it is reasonable to expect they might struggle in this one. 

Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount  are too good for this to be a rout, but the 49ers will find a way to win again. 

Prediction: 49ers 27, Buccaneers 21