College Football Picks Week 6: California Golden Bears vs. Oregon Ducks

The California Golden Bears (3-1) travel to face the No. 9 Oregon Ducks (3-1) in a Pac-12 Conference showdown that will be televised nationally on ESPN

Thursday night's kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 EDT from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore.

Oddsmakers sent out the Ducks as 24.5-point home favorites, only to see that line come down by a half-point, while the total has climbed four points to 63 at most sports books.

Let's take a closer look at this prime-time matchup from a betting perspective.

Cal Rush Defense vs. Oregon Rushing Attack

The Oregon Ducks rushing attack leads the Pac-12 Conference ranks sixth nationally in averaging 299.5 yards a contest. 

That's an impressive number after being held to just 95 yards on 28 carries in the season-opening loss to the LSU Tigers—a game that they actually won the statistical battle by a 335-273 margin in terms of total yards.

Running back LaMichael James is starting to reappear in the Heisman Trophy discussion, leading the country in rushing while also averaging 150.3 yards a contest in 19 career games against conference opponents.

California did a tremendous job of limiting his effectiveness in last season's 15-13 defeat as 18.5-point home underdogs, holding the Texas native to 91 yards.

The Golden Bears defense is second in the conference and ninth nationally in rush defense through four games.

It's an important battle to analyze when wagering on this contest.

Autzen Stadium

The home of the Oregon Ducks football program is one of the loudest venues in college football, and the oddsmakers have to inflate the line because of it.

Oregon has won its last 18 games inside Autzen Stadium, averaging 49.5 points a game in the process. 

That's a definite positive number when trying to lay 24 points in a football game.

It goes up even further when analyzing the last eight games in Eugene, as the nation's top offense has scored 59.9 points a contest over that span.

There's no doubt that this year's meeting will supply more than the 28 points scored a year ago in Northern California.

Cal's Against the Spread Record as Big Underdogs

California is known as an underachieving team when playing away from home, but it's still significant to note that the program is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games as an underdog of 10.5 or more points.

Bettors have to ask if the tariff is too high in playing the favorite in front of a national audience.

In the last 10 meetings, Cal has never been an underdog of this price, with the closest number being 18.5 in last year's contest.

The Golden Bears aren't going to win the conference, but are they 26 points worse than last year's 15-13 home loss?

We'll see.

Oregon Ducks Offensive Pace

The Oregon Ducks want to play faster than any offense in college football, which Cal slowed down last year by faking injuries on the defensive end.

I don't think the fans at Autzen Stadium are going to allow it, while the referees are going to be watching for it.

Oregon has had 27 offensive drives result in reaching the end zone, with 12 of them lasting 1:39 or less.

With each team coming off a bye week and meeting during the early portion of the season, I don't anticipate it being as big of a factor.

That doesn't mean that the Bears have any chance of stopping it.

California vs. Ranked Competition

California head coach Jeff Tedford has faced his share of ranked opponents, posting a 13-17 record in 30 such contests.

It's interesting to note that the program has dropped eight consecutive games versus teams in the top 10, which is the situation when traveling to face the No. 9 team in the country.

Prediction

I truly believe that the oddsmakers have cranked up this line due to many things, including the Ducks being motivated to make a statement on national television.

Quarterback Darron Thomas isn't getting much publicity these days in the Pac-12 Conference, as Matt Barkley and Andrew Luck are stealing the spotlight, but he's still thrown a touchdown pass in 17 consecutive games.

With that being said, Cal presents some problems for Oregon, especially on the offensive side of the football.

The Golden Bears are averaging 122 yards per game more on offense this season, while the Ducks are ninth in the conference and 77th nationally in total defense.

One more thing—eight of the last 11 meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.

I'm taking the points.