Odds for Top 10 Candidates To Win the 2011-2012 NBA MVP

Derrick Rose became the youngest player to win the NBA MVP Award last season as he was the man who held the Chicago Bulls together through injuries to get them to the Eastern Conference finals.

His winning this award was controversial, as awards seem to always be, but there isn't a person out there who would say he shouldn't have been considered.

With that season, he put himself in a situation where he will be considered at least a threat to win it again for the next five years or so.

However, we are sitting here on a morning that seems like it is basically going to decide whether the season sets off on time or not with the NBA owners and players association coming together to have some real concrete talks, so today could end up being a very turbulent day.  This could be the day that decides whether we see 82 games or 50 games (or none).

So with hours to go before the start of the NBA season likely gets pushed back (I'm not getting my hopes up until I see David Stern emerge from behind a curtain and announces "We have a deal.") I've decided to distract myself and pretend that we are actually going to be seeing some basketball played in the next few months.

So for your enjoyment and my distraction, I've decided to throw together a list of what our potential NBA MVP candidates look like and the odds of each candidate winning the award.

10. Carmelo Anthony 40:1

Carmelo Anthony's reputation as a top-10 player in the league has really taken a hit over the past year (if it ever really took off in the first place), so it's hard to imagine him winning an MVP any time soon.

However, when you consider just how good he is at scoring the ball, and that he has no huge flaws on defense, he's not exactly a player that you can ignore.

In a fast-paced Knicks offense, Carmelo can easily average around 26 points or so to go along with seven or eight rebounds and a handful of assists.  If the Knicks end up a top-four team with Carmelo as their main attraction, then he could be a viable MVP candidate.

9. Blake Griffin 35:1

I don't want to be too premature with this, but Blake Griffin had an amazing season last year.

Think about it, on the surface with his 23 points and 13 rebounds is easily as good as Dwight Howard's 22 and 14 season (of course, Dwight was the Defensive Player of the Year where Blake Griffin is a mediocre defender at best at this point).

Add some improvement this season on top of better teammates and the Clippers becoming at least a borderline playoff team and you have a potential 25-14 season plus a steal and a block a game (up from .8 steals and .5 blocks last season), and you have a viable MVP candidate right there.

8. Dirk Nowitzki 33:1

After finally winning a championship a season ago, we saw a side of Dirk Nowitzki that has rarely been on display throughout his career—one that was actually tough.

Dirk is as good a shooter as he's ever been, shooting nearly 52 percent last season, breaking the 50 percent mark for the second time in his career.

In any given season, Dirk has threatened to put up a 50-40-90 shooting season, and if he were to do that, he has every possibility of winning an MVP Award.

7. Dwyane Wade 20:1

On the surface, it seems unlikely that Dwyane Wade could be a candidate to win the MVP Award this season, especially because he is sharing floor time with LeBron James, a two-time MVP in his own regard.

However, Wade had the best shooting season of his career last year, and he only ended up with a point less per game and two fewer assists compared to the season before, while grabbing two more rebounds.

Numbers like that were good enough to get him seventh place in the MVP race, so he should at least be able to do something similar this season.

6. Kobe Bryant 16:1

No matter how old he is getting or how much doubt people have for the guy, it's nearly impossible to just rule Kobe Bryant out as an MVP candidate.

Kobe is going to average 25 points a game, five rebounds, five assists and a steal a game, that much is inevitable, and that much is enough to make him an MVP candidate. 

However, his age is too much to ignore, otherwise he would be higher on this list.

5. Chris Paul 13:1

As a point guard, you can't beat Chris Paul when it comes to the combination of the offensive and defensive game that he has to go along with his uncanny leadership ability.

Paul is going to average around 15-20 points and 10 assists, but on top of that, he's probably going to lead the league in steals again (for what would be the fourth time in five years) and shoot nearly 50 percent as a point guard.

When you take all of that into consideration, you have to give him a look as a preseason possibility as an MVP candidate.

4. LeBron James 8:1

Sure he's sharing a team with another MVP candidate and a guy who can be considered a top-30 player in the NBA, but even that doesn't hurt LeBron James' chances at winning the award that much.

James' stats obviously took a slight hit last season, averaging three points a game fewer to go along with a drop in his assist numbers, but his rebounding numbers stayed strong and with the opposing defense occupied with both Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, he was getting better shots and ended up shooting the best he has in his career at 51 percent.

Along with that, you have a guy who is going to end up on either the first or second All-Defensive teams (most likely first).

3. Kevin Durant 7:1

With his eyes locked on another scoring championship, and potentially an NBA Championship at the end of the season, you have to look at Kevin Durant as one of the best options to be the MVP at any point until he starts to show otherwise.

Durant is capable of having a transcendent season where he could threaten to put up 50-40-90 shooting percentages, which would probably have him ending up averaging around 27 to 30 points a game or more yet again, which would certainly put him up there in the conversation.

The Thunder are obviously going to be a top-four team in the West, and Durant is going to be the best player on the team yet again, so it's very likely that he could come out of this season with an MVP Award populating his trophy shelf.

2. Derrick Rose 6:1

He is the reigning MVP, so why isn't Derrick Rose the most likely to win it again this year?  Well, I'll tell you guys over the next two slides if you just quit asking so many questions.

Rose's reputation as a leader skyrocketed because he was the leader of a team that dealt with so many injuries.  It was looked at as if he held the team together through turbulent times (which he did) giving him the edge in a close race.

He had the stats to get the award with 25 points, nearly eight assists and four rebounds and defense that was very improved compared to a season ago.

Rose will, however, have a full season (presumably) from both Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah so he won't have the whole aura of holding a team together.

1. Dwight Howard 9:2

At this point in his career, and at this point in the cycle of the Orlando Magic, Dwight Howard probably has the best chance of winning the MVP this year.

Odds are, Orlando won't be a great team this year with so much money locked up in Gilbert Arenas and Hedo Turkoglu they won't have much room to add players, but since they have Dwight Howard, they'll be a top-five team in the East.

Given that, he could just go ahead and have the same season he did last year, which was very close to an MVP season, and get the, "How bad would his team be without him," vote.  However, it seems like Howard is due to go into Keyshawn Johnson, "Just give me the damn ball," mode and just having a statistically dominating season.

Either way, I'd say Howard has the most likely route to an MVP this season.

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