MLB Postseason Predictions: Which Superstars Will Win MVP and Cy Young Awards?

Now that the 2011 Major League Baseball is over, we can look ahead to what is going to happen in the postseason and start predicting which players are going to win the postseason awards.

The MVP and Cy Young races are all very close.

Some may not think so, just because of the narrative that certain players were able to put together this season, but when you really evaluate the stats, any one of the players up for these awards has a legitimate case to be made.

Justin Verlander was able to get a lot of wins (which old school voters like) and could be a unanimous choice to win the American League Cy Young award.

But, if you look at what CC Sabathia did this season for the Yankees, the race is a lot closer than you might think.

The MVP races in both leagues are close, though voters tend to favor players whose teams get into the playoffs, or at least are in contention for a playoff spot in September, which is going to sway votes away from players on teams who did not compete for a playoff spot.

So which players will win the postseason awards when they are handed out in November? Which players should win the awards?

Here is a breakdown of who should win and who will win the MVP and Cy Young awards in the American League and National League.

American League Cy Young Award

Should and Will Win

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

As mentioned in the intro, CC Sabathia should at least get some consideration for this award. He pitched in the American League East and had arguably the best season of his career.

He led all AL pitchers with 7.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) on Fangraphs—Verlander finished second (7.0)—and had a better xFIP, which takes into account everything a pitcher has control over while normalizing the home run rate, than Verlander (3.02 to 3.12).

But, at the end of the day, Verlander will walk away with his first Cy Young award, and deservedly so. He led all of baseball in innings pitched (251), strikeouts (250) and WHIP (0.92). He led all American League pitchers in Win Probability Added (5.01).

Some writers will vote for him because of his 24 victories, which is the worst possible way to pick a Cy Young winner.

Verlander should win and will win, but the fact that he has 24 victories has absolutely nothing to do with why he deserves to win.

American League Most Valuable Player

Should Win

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays

Let me state right off the bat that this race is extremely close between the top two, and if either player wins the award, they will deserve it.  

Jose Bautista was the best offensive player in baseball all season long. He finished the season hitting .302/.447/.608 with 43 home runs and a .441 wOBA, which measures a player's overall contributions on offense per plate appearance.

He played both third base and right field this season, and played both positions reasonably well. He should be first or second on every MVP ballot, but, because his team wasn't in playoff contention, some voters won't vote for him.

Will Win

Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox centerfielder had the narrative that voters love to give extra credit to; he played on a successful team that was in contention all season long and had a 30-30 season.

I am not saying that Ellsbury doesn't deserve the award, because he does. But the fact that he played on a better team that Bautista should not help him.

Ellsbury had a breakout season with 32 home runs, 39 stolen bases, a .321/.376/.552 slash line and played superb defense at a premium defensive position.

National League Cy Young Award

Should Win

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

We have officially run out of superlatives to describe Roy Halladay. He is the best pitcher in baseball and is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon.

The Phillies ace led all pitchers in Fangraphs' WAR (8.2), finished third in xFIP (2.71) and had the lowest walk rate in the National League. He finished third in baseball in Win Probability Added (4.82).

Where he separates himself from Clayton Kershaw is in quality of competition faced and the park he pitches in.

As great as Kershaw is, he pitches in a division with two of the worst offenses (San Diego and San Francisco) in the league, and he pitches primarily in a good pitcher's park.

Halladay faces better competition in the National League East and pitches in one of the worst pitcher's parks in the National League.

Will Win

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

We have been hearing about Clayton Kershaw's greatness for the last two years, and he not only lived up to that hype this season, but exceeded it.

Kershaw, Halladay and Cliff Lee are so close in so many categories that it is virtually impossible to separate them from each other.

Kershaw will get the rub from voters because he won the pitching triple crown. I think something else that helps him will be Halladay winning last year. The voters will try to give the award to someone new this time to keep things "fresh."

That's not to say that Kershaw doesn't deserve it, but he will likely win the award for the wrong reasons.

National League Most Valuable Player

Should Win

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

Remember last season, when Matt Kemp was a cancer to the Dodgers and had to be traded because of his bad attitude?

Maybe Kemp wasn't the problem, because he had a great season in 2011. So great, in fact, that he should win the NL MVP award.

Kemp led all National League players in Fangraphs' WAR (8.7). He had a .324/.399/.586 slash line with 39 home runs and 40 stolen bases. He did all that while playing a decent centerfield. An up-the-middle position player who plays average on defense and great on offense is rare and worthy of an MVP trophy.

Will Win

Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

Ryan Braun has the narrative to win the award: Best position player on one of the best teams in the National League. But he was not as valuable to his team as Matt Kemp.

Braun is a great hitter, and he has become a superstar thanks to his offense. But his defense has never been very good, which should be factored in when you are voting for MVP.

I am not bashing Braun, either. I am just saying that he was not the MVP of the National League.