Manchester United: Why Their Early Season Dominance Is Not Sustainable

Even by the high standards of Manchester United, it's been a dream start to the Barclays Premier League season.

Goals? You bet. Eight past Arsenal. Five on Bolton. Three against Spurs and Chelsea.

Points? Oh yeah. Five straight wins to open the season. 16 points through six matches. A goal differential of plus-17.

My, oh my, Fergie's boys are flying high.

Here's saying it won't continue. It can't, at least not at the standard United has set. Over a 38-match league season, it's impossible for any team—even one as good as Manchester United—to do what it has over the opening six fixtures.

That's not to say United will struggle. With that squad and Sir Alex Ferguson doing some of the best managing of his illustrious career, the Red Devils must be considered the favorites for the title.

Just don't expect them to score 17 goals, win five and draw one out of every six matches.

Here are five good reasons why.

1. Stoke Showed United Can Be Beaten

Stoke didn't actually beat Manchester United.

But the Potters did come tantalizingly close.

In the process, they ended United's 100 percent run in the league and showed their English brethren how the defending champions can be beaten.

The strategy was two-fold. First, out-muscle United. Then, channel the attack through Peter Crouch, the tall target man.

It almost earned Stoke a win. After falling behind in the first half, the Potters leveled through Crouch's goal in the 52nd minute and could have won if not for his poor finishing later in the second half.

David Hirshey, whose talents as an analyst are admittedly overshadowed by his skills as a wordsmith, noted the importance of Stoke's physical approach in his weekly ESPN column.

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"Saturday it was Manchester United's turn to experience the shin music, an uncompromising melody that squarely knocked off Liverpool two weekends ago and had caused Chelsea fits on the Prem's opening weekend.

(snip)

If (Stoke's) run to last year's FA Cup final wasn't eye-opening enough, its swoop for Crouch and its recent positive displays in Europe should act as a flare signal to the rest of the top-flight sides that this is a team to be reckoned with. The only part of Pulis that is remotely speed oriented is the uber-chic tracksuit that he sports on the sidelines. He has built the anti-Blackpool—a gritty, hard-working squad designed to harry and pressure opponents all over the field with welt-producing zeal—and if some teams cower in the face of his side's relentless aggression, so much the better."

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What Hirshey fails to mention is Stoke's success using Crouch to unlock United's defense. A slight man at 156 pounds (he stands 6'7"), Crouch nonetheless bullied United's defenders for much of the second half.

His physical work resulted in a goal and several more scoring opportunities, both for himself and his teammates.

It's a tactic another team used against United just a few days later.

2. Basel Did Too

Enter Basel, which nearly shocked Manchester United on Tuesday in the Champions League.

Unlike Stoke, Basel outplayed United at Old Trafford. And unlike Stoke, Basel did it without using a physical style.

But like Stoke, Basel made perfect use of a physically imposing target man.

It nearly turned Basel's early two-goal deficit into a 3-2 win.

Here's what happened. Basel trailed 2-0 at halftime thanks to two Danny Welbeck strikes in as many first-half minutes. But the Swiss champs had chances to score in the first half. Led by the hold-up play and darting runs of Marco Streller, they created a number of chances, only to be undone by poor finishing.

The only thing that changed in the second half was Basel's finishing.

Streller, who stands 195 centimeters tall (about 6'5") and weighs 83 kilograms (about 183 pounds) according to the team's website, continued to manhandle the United defense. He held up play when he needed to, and ran at defenders when the situation dictated it. Finally, the goals started coming, with Fabian Frei getting Basel's first in the 58th minute and Alexander Frei adding a late brace.

United equalized through Ashley Young's late header, but Basel had put a scare into Sir Alex Ferguson's team.

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"I think we were careless. It's a wake-up call in many ways," said Ferguson. "A lack of concentration saw us give the game away really but we rescued it.

''To concede three goals at home, the defence and midfield have to be better than that in terms of concentration. If you lapse, the quality of the Champions League can make you suffer.''

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Fergie's right about the quality in the Champions League. But the Premiership has plenty of teams good enough to do the same thing to United.

3. Injuries Will Take Their Toll

Injuries are as much a part of the game as managers choosing their formations.

Injuries happen. No team is immune.

Manchester United is no exception, as the past week proved. Ferguson picked a team without either Wayne Rooney or Javier Hernandez for the Champions League match against Basel. Both were injured.

Danny Welbeck performed well in their absence, but United won't always be so fortunate.

4. The Inescapable Burden of History and Statistics

Manchester United won't keep up this pace. History and statistics tell us so.

At its current pace, United would finish the season with 101 points. No Premier League team has ever finished with more than Chelsea's 95 in 2004-05.

Even when Arsenal went undefeated for the entire 2003-04 season, the Gunners finished with 90.

The most goals ever scored in a top-flight season are 128 by Aston Villa in 1930-31. But that was a different era. Since the Premier League formed, the record is 103 by Chelsea in 2009-10.

Manchester United could approach both of Chelsea's records this season. But even doing that would mean a dip in form compared to the first six matches of the season.

5. Expecting the Unexpected

Who could have expected Manchester United to beat Arsenal 8-2?

It happened, though, as do many other unexpected things in football.

But here's the point: It goes both ways. United can't and won't always be on the good side of unexpected events. Upsets happen. Teams go through patches of bad form.

And it's almost beyond the realm of possibility to think United could replicate its demolition of Arsenal, which was going through an unprecedented bad week at the time.

Repeating the results against Spurs and Chelsea will also be difficult, though not impossible. But this much is sure: United's dominant start to the season has been historic.

And we might never see anything like it again.