New England Patriots: Why They Shouldn't Take the Oakland Raiders Lightly

Raise your hand if you thought the New England Patriots would have their way with the Oakland Raiders when the schedule was released.

Now put your hand down if you still think it will be a cake walk for the Patriots.

This Raiders team is enjoying a good amount of success in the early going of the 2011 season, and they're doing it in an unconventional way, running the ball effectively and frequently, but they're doing it nonetheless.

That ground attack isn't the only thing the Patriots should be worried about. In fact, there are plenty of reasons the Patriots need to take the Raiders seriously.

YAC Attack

Only three teams had more total yards after catch than the New England Patriots in 2010. The Oakland Raiders were one of those teams. Of their total receiving yards, YAC accounted for 55.55 percent.

New England's defensive backs will have to wrap up and make sure tackles. Easier said than done at this stage for Belichick's bunch.

According to ESPN's Mike Reiss, six of New England's top seven tacklers are defensive backs. That's an indication of the fact that the Patriots are being targeted downfield, but it's worth adding that two of the top four are safeties, and one of them is Patrick Chung, who missed last week. That means that the safeties are often compensating for gashes in the running game and missed tackles in the passing game.

If the Raiders are able to get a head of steam and rack up the YAC, they could pillage New England's secondary like the Dolphins, Chargers and Bills already have.

Need for Speed

What was once a punch line of the Raiders' team-building strategy has now become their most dangerous weapon. The Raiders have incredible team speed, and Hue Jackson has found a way to harness that speed into an explosive offense.

The Patriots need to be aware of the speed, and even though it may mean giving up big-time yardage, if those yards don't result in points, they've won the battle. Thus far, New England's defense ranks eighth in Bendability, an indicator used by Cold, Hard Football Facts to measure the success of a bend-don't-break defense. Their number is 17.8 yards per point scored, or 124.6 yards for a touchdown. 

Yards are just yards unless they result in points. The Patriots need to make sure that's not the case against the Raiders on Sunday.

Darren McFadden Running Like He's in Madden

Darren McFadden entered the NFL with high expectations as the fourth overall pick of the 2008 draft. People were very quick to label him a bust after two injury-plagued seasons, in which he played 25 of 32 games, starting just 12. He averaged 3.9 yards per carry and scored just five touchdowns in his first two seasons combined. 

Fast forward to 2011, and it's very possible that McFadden could wind up as one of the best running backs in the league by the end of this season. His breakout campaign in 2010 (5.2 YPC, 1,664 yards from scrimmage, 10 total touchdowns) is being followed by a strong start in 2011 (6.4 YPC, 477 yards from scrimmage, four touchdowns through three games).

Slowing down McFadden isn't just a key to success—it's a must if the Patriots want to win on Sunday.

Hog Abuse

Don't call PETA; these are grown men fully capable of taking care of themselves. The Hog Index (both for offense and defense) measures the battle of the trenches using yards per carry, negative pass play percentage (sacks plus interceptions, divided by drop backs) and third-down conversion percentage. OK, so Oakland's Defensive Hogs rank 30th in the league with the worst YPC against them and 42.11 percent third-down conversions.

What should be more of a concern is their play on the offensive line.

In fact, their Offensive Hogs are currently ranked second in the league, and though that number is at least somewhat skewed by McFadden's hot start (Oakland averages 5.5 YPC), they also aren't giving up many negative pass plays (just 3.57 percent).

I don't need to tell you how bad New England's D-Hogs have been, but I will—they rank 26th in the league and give up 4.2 yards per carry on average while generating just 8.15 percent negative pass plays and allowing 43.24 percent conversions on third down.

New England's D-Hogs could be in for a roll in the mud on Sunday against Oakland's offensive line with a new attitude.

Defensive Passer Rating

The Oakland Raiders have an underrated pass defense that currently ranks 13th in Defensive Passer Rating. They rank right around the middle of the league, so it's not as though Tom Brady can expect another game like the one he had against the Bills. It's also worth mentioning that the Bills rank 14th in Defensive Passer Rating, so nothing is certain.

With just 58.5 percent completions against them, their rating is hurt a bit by six touchdowns and just three interceptions. For a defense that has racked up nine sacks through three games, those numbers could be a bit higher if their pressure starts influencing passes a bit more frequently.

That could be the case if New England is unable to protect Brady on Sunday.

Jason Campbell's Efficiency

Jason Campbell is underrated. There, I said it.

He's not deadly, just efficient. That efficiency can be more deadly than you think, though, as the Raiders quarterback currently boasts a passer rating of 93.8.

The Patriots have been a red carpet for quarterbacks, not only being walked all over but also making the quarterbacks look like All-Stars. They currently have a Defensive Passer Rating of 94.6.  

As mentioned previously, the Patriots will be better off if they put the ball into Jason Campbell's hands, but that doesn't mean he won't make them pay for it at least in some way.

The fact that he has just three touchdowns through three games is reason to believe that forcing Campbell to beat them is the best strategy, but his efficient play has me thinking he'll be another in a string of quarterbacks that have looked marvelous against New England's defense.

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter @erikfrenz.