MLB Award Season: Predicting the Winner of Each Major Award

Time’s up, boys. Put down your pencils and await scribed judgment from the mighty sportswriter.

Decisions on the MLB’s individual awards may not arrive until after the postseason, but their fate will be sealed Wednesday when the regular season concludes.

With statistics and impressions sunk into stone, it’s only appropriate to predict what the voters will decide.

Besides, actually crafting opinions gets dull. It’s much more fun (and freaky) to read minds.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

Rationale: In this year’s least competitive awards race, the magnificent Verlander blows by the rest of the field. Although C.C. Sabathia owns the better FIP, most voters probably couldn’t tell you what that acronym means. Verlander’s league-leading marks in all of the traditional metrics (wins, strikeouts and ERA) have him lapping the rest of the field.

Selling Point: Verlander’s 24 wins—the first pitcher to hit that mark since 2002.

What the Voter Is Thinking: “Justin Verlander throws hard. I heart heat, and Huckabees, in that order.”

Runners-up: Jered Weaver and C.C. Sabathia.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

Rationale: Wins may not be the bell-weather they used to be for Cy Young voting, but in a close race they still matter. In this case, Kershaw’s 21 wins look particularly appetizing compared to the 19 wins Roy Halladay accumulated, since the two-win difference just happens to straddle a number divisible by 10.

It’s crazy, I know, but folks will vote for Kershaw because he’s a 20-game winner and Halladay isn’t. If the difference between the two was, say, 18 wins to 16 wins, I think it would hardly register.

That’s not to say Kershaw isn’t deserving—he is. The young lefty leads the league in ERA and strikeouts. Even though he’s benefited from a bit of luck, including an extremely low batting average on balls in play, those sorts of peripherals won’t affect his stock. He should win this one pretty easily.

Selling Point: He’s young, he’s good and he racks up the whiffs—248 of them, in fact.

What the Voter Is Thinking: “21>19. Math!”

Runners-up: Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.

AL MVP: Curtis Granderson

Rationale: The Justin-Verlander-for-MVP talk hit its peak when Verlander’s Tigers led their division by only a few games. The fact that they eventually won the AL Central with such ease took a lot of the focus away from Verlander and his candidacy.

Boston’s Jacoby Ellsbury could have slipped into that void, except for the fact that his team has been in the limelight for all the wrong reasons.

Then there’s Jose Bautista, who suffers enough from the endless debate over value and team results to counteract the fact that he’s been baseball’s best regular player.

That leaves Curtis Granderson—he of the 41 home runs and 24 stolen bases. In a deep field, he’s the one least damned by his team’s failures and successes.

Selling Point: I mean, that .557 slugging percentage is pretty sweet.

What the Voter Is Thinking: “Bautista? Doesn’t he play for, like, Canada or something? Pinstripes=love. God bless America.”

Runners-up: Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Bautista.

NL MVP: Matt Kemp

Rationale: This neck-and-neck race boils down to a typical MVP conundrum: the overall best player (Matt Kemp) versus the best player on a good team (Ryan Braun).

A couple of things work in Kemp’s favor here. First, he’s (kind of) in contention for the NL Triple Crown, and voters tend to flock to historic pursuits like moths to a flame. The mere mention of a Triple Crown gives Kemp an edge.

Second, Braun won’t get the full credit for willing his Brewers to a postseason berth, since teammate Prince Fielder also had a monster year. The shared spotlight negates some of the attention earned for propelling a contender.  

Selling Point: Kemps’s 8.4 WAR, combined with the guilt accumulated for not giving Jose Bautista the AL MVP.

What the Voter Is Thinking: “If I tell my daughters I voted for Rihanna’s ex-boyfriend, maybe they’ll finally respect me.”

Runners-up: Ryan Braun and Albert Pujols.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson

Rationale: In the post-wins era of evaluating pitchers, ERA is king. As a statistic, it appeals to traditionalists, contains no complicated formulas and reveals less obvious flaws to the casual fan.

Because of ERA's statistical preeminence, and despite a high FIP, a low strikeout-to-walk ratio and a laughably lucky batting average on balls in play, Hellickson’s 2.95 ERA makes him the front-runner.

New York’s Ivan Nova suffers from a higher ERA and the sense that his 16-4 record references his team’s dominance rather than his own excellence. On the left coast, Anaheim’s Mark Trumbo won’t overcome the stigma a sub-.300 OBP, while teammate Jordan Walden's relief feats will get lost in the shuffle of another young fireballer's stunning accomplishments (next slide).

While those three lag, Tampa’s recent resurgence in the Wild Card race continues to help Hellickson’s cause and keeps him in the spotlight during this high-leverage final month.

Selling Point: 2.95 ERA, plain and simple.

What the Voter Is Thinking: “Whatever happened to rookie hazing? That stuff made for great article filler.”

Runners-up: Ivan Nova and Jordan Walden.

NL Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel

Rationale: Voters love records, and Kimbrel collects them by the handful.

When 2011 ends, pretty much every mark pertaining to rookies and relievers will belong to Kimbrel. That’s how good the Braves closer has been.

He’s got a 2.00 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, 126 strikeouts and 46 saves. No other rookie reliever in baseball history even compares. The only other two relievers to notch more than 30 saves during their rookie season, Kazuhiro Sasaki and Billy Koch, posted ERAs north of 3.00.

Anaheim’s Jordan Walden will join Kimbrel in the 30-plus save, sub-3.00 ERA club at season’s end, but that’s where the parallels end. Kimbrel has almost double Walden’s strikeout total and an ERA more than half a point lower.

First baseman Freddie Freeman may be the more valuable player to the Braves, but Kimbrel’s numbers are so extraordinary that voters won’t deny him.

Selling Point: 14.86 strikeouts per nine innings—a number you just read correctly.

What the Voter Is Thinking: “Maybe if I wrote a letter to Bud Selig telling him to ease up on the suspensions, guys would feel more comfortable humiliating rookies. I’ll jot that down in my dream journal.”

Runners-up: Freddie Freeman and Vance Worley.

AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon

Rationale: Anyone making a case for any other manager either loves change (Maddon won in 2008) or hates glasses (Maddon wears them).

Hats off to Ron Washington of the Rangers, Jim Leyland of the Tigers and Joe Girardi of the Yankees. A job well done, gentleman.

It’s still not the job Maddon did keeping a young team focused and motivated in the face of a gaping deficit in baseball's toughest division.

Selling Point: The Rays lost Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett, Carlos Pena, Rafael Soriano and Joaquin Benoit. They gained Johnny Damon. And they won how many games?

What the Voter Is Thinking: “I should develop a baseball video game called Maddon ‘12? Would that confuse people? Another one for the dream journal.”

Runners-up: Ron Washington and Joe Girardi.

NL Manager of the Year: Kirk Gibson

Rationale: An award usually reserved for the manager of the most surprising playoff team will find a familiar home come November.

Gibson’s team, reflecting the steely quality of its leader, never flinched in their brief tussle with the defending champions, the San Francisco Giants.

They caught and overtook San Francisco with such ease, that an unfamiliar observer would have thought the roles of former champion and upstart were reversed.

Selling Point: Worst to first ain’t a bad way of putting it.

What the Voter Is Thinking: “I don’t believe what I just saw.”

Runners-up: Ron Roenicke and Charlie Manuel.

Executive of the Year: Ruben Amaro, Jr.

Rationale: Amaro gets the edge over Rays' GM Andrew Friedman, Brewers' GM Doug Melvin and Rangers' GM Jon Daniels because of his ability to swing big deals in both major-player movement periods.

Amaro stole Cliff Lee from Daniels during the winter and then made one of the summer’s splashiest trades by poaching Hunter Pence from the Houston Astros. In two very different acquisition climates, Amaro got his man.

His success shouldn’t surprise Phillies fans. Over the last few years, Amaro has landed Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Placido Polanco, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee (again) and Hunter Pence—all while maintaining one of baseball’s better farm systems.

The man deserves a firm handshake and some hardware.

Selling Point: The Cliff Lee heist.

What the Voter Is Thinking: “Actually I’m not sure why you’ve tunneled into my brain on this one. Sporting News’ MLB Executive of the Year is awarded by a panel of peers, not sportswriters. As such, I have no thoughts on the matter and am preoccupied with the comings and goings of the McRib.”

Runners-up: Andrew Friedman and Doug Melvin.