NFL Picks Week 4: Predicting the Outcome of Every Game

As the NFL season starts to take shape, let’s run through picks and predictions for all of the Week 4 matchups.

Teams like the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills and Washington Redskins are looking to prove that the first three weeks weren’t a fluke. Teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears are looking to prove that they were.

So who’s right? How will the NFL landscape play out in Week 4?



All lines according to betus.com.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Line: Dallas -1.5

Though Detroit hasn’t faced a particularly tough slate so far, the Lions haven’t shown any discernible weaknesses. Unfortunately for the Dallas Cowboys, the Lions’ biggest strength can directly target Dallas’ biggest weakness: Tony Romo’s ribs.

Even if Nick Fairley isn’t able to suit up for Detroit, Ndamukong Suh and the rest of the Lions' defensive front will hammer Romo all day long. On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will easily pick apart the thin Dallas secondary.

Unbelievably, the Detroit Lions will get to 4-0.

Prediction: Detroit Lions 24 - Dallas Cowboys 17

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

Line: N/A

This game will depend almost completely on the health of Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick, which is still up in the air. For the purposes of this prediction, let’s assume that Vick plays.

Though he may not be at full strength, Vick will still be a handful for the San Francisco 49ers defense. Patrick Willis is an all-world linebacker, but he doesn’t have the straight-line speed to chase Vick around all game. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles secondary has been surprisingly vulnerable, but Alex Smith isn’t blessed with the weapons, nor the talent, to really make Philly pay.

If Vick starts on Sunday, Philadelphia should cruise to a win at home.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 31 - San Francisco 49ers 17

New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: New Orleans -7

Jacksonville Jaguars rookie Blaine Gabbert may very well be a great quarterback someday, but at this point, he’s not prepared to deal with Gregg Williams’ complex blitz packages. The New Orleans Saints defense thrives on quarterback confusion, and a rookie quarterback is an easy target.

In the face of the New Orleans blitz, the Jaguars offense won’t be able to keep pace on the scoreboard. Drew Brees and the Saints offense will jump out early and snag an easy road win.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints 27 - Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

Line: Pick ‘em

After entering the season as a trendy pick to win the NFC West, the St. Louis Rams have stumbled to an 0-3 start. The Washington Redskins, on the other hand, have somehow found themselves at 2-1, locked in a three-way tie atop the NFC East.

Rex Grossman’s old self reappeared on Monday night, as he fumbled away the Redskins’ final chance at a win. Still, it seems that Grossman has truly taken a step forward in his career.

I looked for a reason to pick the Rams, but beyond Sam Bradford, there really isn’t anything special about this team. Washington holds an edge in talent on both sides of the ball, and will get a win to keep pace in its divisional race.

Prediction: Washington Redskins 24 - St. Louis Rams 23

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Line: Cleveland -1

The signature running games of both the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans have sputtered out of the gate, hampered by sickness and general ineffectiveness, respectively. On the other side of the ball, both squads field solid, yet unspectacular defensive units. This one will come down to quarterback play.

Neither team’s quarterback is blessed with immense physical talent, and neither has much in the way of weapons on the outside. I give a slight advantage to Matt Hasselbeck’s veteran savvy over Colt McCoy’s youthful exuberance.

The Titans will pull out a tight one on the road to move to a surprising 3-1 on the season.

Prediction: Tennessee Titans 19 - Cleveland Browns 17

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Line: Buffalo -3

With the Buffalo Bills coming off of a euphoric home win over New England, this trip to Cincinnati feels like a classic trap game. The AFC East’s perennial doormat is suddenly 3-0, alone atop the division and favored by three points on the road. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and the Bills have never been in this position before. Unfortunately for the good folks of Cincinnati, the Bills will not overlook these Bengals. Buffalo has had to grind out each of its three wins and won’t just give one away.

Fitzpatrick will dice up the Bengals' makeshift secondary, and the Bills will continue their winning ways.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills 24 - Cincinnati Bengals 13

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Minnesota -1.5

The matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs is unquestionably the NFL’s pillow fight of the week.

Both teams have staggered to 0-3 starts. The Vikings have done so in gut-wrenching fashion, taking a first-half lead in each of their games before falling apart in the second half. The Chiefs have made things easier on their opponents by rolling over right from the start.

The Vikings have the best running back in football in Adrian Peterson, and something tells me that after three consecutive losses, Minnesota will get back to its bread and butter this week. Look for Peterson to carry his Vikings to a comfortable win over the worst team in football.

Prediction: Minnesota 17 - Kansas City 9

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

Line: Chicago -7

Cam Newton hit the ground running in his NFL career. Well, not literally. Newton has drummed up a quick rapport with Steve Smith and suddenly morphed the Carolina Panthers into one of the most exciting passing offenses in the NFL. He’s carved up every defense he’s faced so far, including those daunting defenders up in Green Bay.

Even so, former Panther Julius Peppers leads exactly the type of defense that could shut Newton down. The Chicago Bears are one of the few teams in football that have the defensive speed to corral the Panthers' young quarterback, and they'll prove it on Sunday.

Carolina will keep it close, but Jay Cutler will put up just enough points to get the Bears a narrow win.

Prediction: Carolina Panthers 23 - Chicago Bears 27

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

Line: Houston -4

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has been exposed. It’s been below average in recent years, but it's always been just good enough to get by. This season, the Pittsburgh front has cratered. It's been completely unable to protect Ben Roethlisberger and equally incapable of opening holes for Rashard Mendenhall.

This is music to the ears of Wade Phillips and his Houston Texans defense.

The Texans will swarm Roethlisberger and make this a low-scoring affair. The Steelers defenders will slow down the Houston offense, but in the end, Matt Schaub will put up just enough points to eke out a victory.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 13 - Houston Texans 20

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

Line: Atlanta -4.5

The Atlanta Falcons have stumbled out of the gate, but the team is still loaded with talent. The Seattle Seahawks, on the other hand, have little more than the home crowd going for them in this one.

Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones will tear up the Seahawks' defensive backfield, while the Falcons defense will dare Tavaris Jackson to do the same. When he fails, Atlanta will head back home with a win.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 34 - Seattle Seahawks 26

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals

Line: New York -1

Both the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals enter Week 4 coming off of a divisional road victory, yet these teams aren’t perceived to be in the same class.

For the Giants, Eli Manning is on a roll after tossing four touchdowns against the rival Eagles. For Arizona, the Kevin Kolb experiment hasn’t quite come together. However, he’s at least begun to develop a nice connection with Larry Fitzgerald. Even if the Giants formidable pass rush can get to Kolb, the “throw it up for Larry” strategy can still work against the injury-riddled New York secondary.

The Arizona Cardinals are surprisingly good at home in the desert. Look for that trend to continue in Week 4.

Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 24 - New York Giants 20

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers

Line: San Diego -7

After years of disappointing starts, the San Diego Chargers find themselves in an unfamiliar position at this point in the year: on top of their division. The Miami Dolphins have played well at times, but have struggled to close out games.

Vontae Davis should be able to shut down Vincent Jackson, but the rest of the Miami defense will have no answer for the Chargers. The Dolphins will almost certainly be playing from behind, and with Chad Henne at the helm, that’s not a good thing.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins 14 - San Diego Chargers 35

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers

Line: Green Bay -13

The Green Bay Packers were expected to be the best team in football coming into the year, and they’ve looked every bit of that so far. Jermichael Finley has proven to be an unstoppable addition to Aaron Rodgers’ already stocked corp of receivers.

With the combination of Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno, the Denver Broncos have a running game that can give the Packers some problems. Unfortunately, the Broncos will fall behind quickly and be forced to go to the air. Against Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews, that’s not a recipe for success.

Prediction: Denver Broncos 16 - Green Bay Packers 38

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders

Line: New England -4

The New England Patriots’ loss in Buffalo was a bit fluky, but it did reveal a few chinks in the Pats’ normally impenetrable armor. Notably, Fred Jackson showed that a dynamic, versatile running back can put up a dominant game against New England’s defense.

Darren McFadden fits that description perfectly.

With Richard Seymour anchoring the front, the Oakland Raiders have enough on defense to keep Tom Brady and the Patriots from running away early in the game. That, combined with McFadden’s explosive running ability and a raucous crowd in the black hole gives the Raiders enough ammo to pull the upset.

Prediction: New England Patriots 27 - Oakland Raiders 28

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

Line: Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens have been the definition of an up-and-down team this season, with blowouts of the Steelers and Rams sandwiched around a confusing loss to the Titans. In its wins, Baltimore has feasted on big plays. Against the New York Jets, those plays will be hard to come by.

This game will be a low-scoring, defensive battle, just as one would expect from these teams. Though the Ravens defense is still littered with names like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, the Jets defense is younger, faster and hungrier.

This one will be a dogfight, but Rex Ryan’s boys will find a way to squeak by.

Prediction: New York Jets 10 - Baltimore Ravens 9

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Line: Tampa Bay -10

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were pegged as a team on the rise coming into the season, and aside from one loss to the powerhouse Detroit Lions, they’ve been just that.

Regardless of what the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be, it’s clear what they are.

Without Peyton Manning, the Colts are a shell of the team they used to be. Strong individual efforts from Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis kept Indianapolis in the game against the Steelers, but Curtis Painter just isn’t capable of leading an NFL team to victory.

Josh Freeman, on the other hand, has proven to be quite capable of such things. Tampa Bay will continue its rise, while the Colts fall deeper into oblivion.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 12 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27