NL MVP 2011: Odds for Who Wins Top Award

This season's NL MVP race is going to test the commonly held trend that has occurred in Major League Baseball's MVP voting.

Team performance outweighs individual accomplishments. It happened in the AL last year when a banged-up Josh Hamilton from the AL West champion Texas Rangers won out over Miguel Cabrera of the .500 Detroit Tigers.

Despite the fact that Cabrera's individual numbers dwarfed Hamilton's, and despite Hamilton missing several weeks, he still beat Cabrera quite easily in the voting.

The Dodgers' Matt Kemp has made a heavy push for the Triple Crown, a virtually mythical accomplishment these days; although he may ultimately end up short in his quest for the honor, he still enjoyed one of the greatest individual seasons in recent history.

Will his season trump that of his competitors for the award who reside on playoff teams? Here's my assessment of how it stands right now.

The Field

Players on non-playoff contender, pitchers and sluggers overshadowed by teammates make up the field.

Clayton Kershaw has become the NL's Justin Verlander, but as a pitcher on a mediocre team with a heavy MVP candidate, unlike Verlander, Kershaw has no shot at the award.

Joey Votto, Michael Morse and Troy Tulowitzki have had fine seasons for disappointing teams, leaving them out of any serious contention.

Yadier Molina, Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday all deserve consideration, but they're overshadowed by Albert Pujols. Likewise for Hunter Pence with the Phillies staff and Prince Fielder with Ryan Braun.

Rookie Craig Kimbrel's record-setting rookie season won't garner much MVP consideration, but he'll get some Cy Young votes.

Percentage chance of winning NL MVP: 10 percent

4. Albert Pujols

While it might be his last year in St. Louis, Pujols' sneaky good year has gotten the Cardinals back into serious playoff consideration when they were left for dead a month ago.

Pujols as well was written off by some after a slow start, perceived free-agent distractions and an injury left him in a rut.

The Cardinals might not make it as the NL wild card, but if they do, bump Pujols up a notch. He's batting .375 with five HRs and 19 RBI in September, when his teammates need him most.

A lot will rest on the next couple days and if the Cardinals make it to the playoffs and what his contribution is. A definite dark horse contender, but it's amazing he's even drawing consideration after how his season has unfolded.

Percentage chance of winning NL MVP: Five percent

3. Justin Upton

The best player on the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks has had an excellent season.

He's the cog that makes the D-Backs machine go and is an excellent fielder.

His numbers aren't eye-popping, but he's got the best intangibles of anyone on this list. However, in the MVP voting statistics are the most important thing.

It's a shame since he's led the resurgent D-Backs and has no doubt been their MVP.

Percentage chance of winning NL MVP: Five percent

2. Ryan Braun

Ryan Braun would certainly be the traditional favorite for the MVP. He's got excellent numbers, only slightly behind Matt Kemp's, and plays for a team headed to the playoffs.

Braun has a ton of talent around him too, which may work against him.

Teammate Prince Fielder could steal a vote or two, maybe leaving him just short of the award.

Percentage chance of winning NL MVP: 30 percent

1. Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp's "not quite Jose Bautista-like" ascension has been truly remarkable.

Kemp has been somewhat of an underachiever in Los Angeles until this year. That's all changed, as he's made a legitimate push toward the Triple Crown.

He'll probably miss out on the batting title but also has a legitimate shot at becoming just the fifth member of the 40/40 club, as he needs two home runs over his final games.

If the Dodgers were in playoff contention, he would be a shoo-in for the award.

Percentage chance of winning NL MVP: 50 percent