NFL Odds Week 3: Which Teams Will Cover the Point Spread and Why

Last week: 10-5-1.  Season totals: 23-7-2, Pct. .750.  Best Bets: 6-0, Pct. 1.000.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.    

SUNDAY

PHILADELPHIA 21, N.Y. Giants 16 (+7 1/2)—Following much speculation, it seems as if Michael Vick will be available — but even Vick can't hurt you while he's standing on the sideline.  Brandon Jacobs is the key here: If he can make sufficient headway against the tiny Eagle front seven, the Giants will win the time-of-possession battle and have a solid chance to at least snap their six game no-cover streak in the series, if not necessarily end their slide of the same length outright.

N.Y. Jets 24, OAKLAND 17 (+3 1/2)—With road games at the Ravens (to whom they have lost six straight) and the Patriots next up, you can all but pencil in the Jets for a 2-3 record after five games if they lose here.  Which is why they won't.  

New England 31, BUFFALO 14 (+9)—I don't believe that either Buffalo in general, or Ryan Fitzpatrick in particular, is for real.  Not for a New York minute — the Bills of course being New York State's only team—and they've lost 15 in a row to the Patriots, with a 4-10-1 spread record therein.  

CAROLINA 38, Jacksonville 31 (+3)—The Luke McCown experiment really didn't cost the Jags anything, as they won with McCown at quarterback in their opener and almost certainly wouldn't have beaten the Jets on the road in any case.  Now Blaine Gabbert does get his first NFL start, but Cam Newton is ahead of him on the learning curve.  They both figure to light it up though.  An over/under of 41 1/2?  That might be topped by halftime!   

Miami 20 (+3), CLEVELAND 14—Only Baltimore in November, and New England in January, managed to hand either the Dolphins or their backers a road loss in 2010—and Cleveland in September hardly stacks up to either.  Home team is 4-17-1 against the line in Miami's last 22 games dating back to December of '09.  

CINCINNATI 23, San Francisco 13 (+1)—Since Steve Young was forced into retirement 12 years ago this week the 49ers are 14-34 straight up on artificial turf, upon which Young's career record was 22-14.  Plus the home team in this one has won the last five, and the Bengals are 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven.  

TENNESSEE 21, Denver 14 (+4 1/2)—Both teams are 1-1, but the Titans are 2-0 against the spread while the Broncos are 0-2 — and Chris Johnson has an established history of doing better when facing 4-3 defenses than 3-4s, and Denver's is a 4-3.  

MINNESOTA 23 (+4), Detroit 17—Strictly on principle, one cannot give points on the Lions in Minnesota when they have lost 13 consecutive games there.  Not only that, but they haven't covered as a road favorite, or even won outright for that matter, since—get this—September 29, 1996!  Detroit is 0-10 since then in that role—and it's not as if the Vikings have been getting smoked in their 0-2 start, covering at San Diego, then just failing to hang on at home against road-loving Josh Freeman and Tampa Bay.  

NEW ORLEANS 27, Houston 10 (+4 1/2)—This is the week that Arian Foster's ailing hamstring will matter.  The Saints got back on track last week, especially on defense, and the home team has registered double-digit wins in both meetings to date; indeed, the predicted score is the average of those two results.  

ST. LOUIS 24 (+3 1/2), Baltimore 20 — Don't let the 59 points they have given up in their first two games fool you: The Rams are actually playing very decent defense—particularly against the pass, holding Eli Manning to 200 yards after limiting Michael Vick to 187 and 43.8 percent completions.  Since Art Modell moved the franchise from Cleveland the Ravens are 3-12 straight up in domes, and the home side has won all four games played between the relocated team and St. Louis.  Upset special.  

SAN DIEGO 28, Kansas City 10 (+15)—Yes, this is a lot of wood to lay this early on, but the Chiefs are impossible to endorse at any number the way they have been playing—not only in the regular season, but in the preseason as well.  

Atlanta 17, TAMPA BAY 10 (+1)—Josh Freeman, now 12-2 against the spread on the road, is 4-8-1 at home — and the Falcons are 4-0 straight up against him, and should make it 5-0 here.  

Green Bay 24, CHICAGO 14 (+3 1/2)—The Packers made Jay Cutler quit the last time they were in town.  They just might do it again.  

Arizona 23, SEATTLE 10 (+3)—After getting really torched by Cam Newton, then somewhat torched by Rex Grossman, Arizona's defense gets the drop in class it dreadfully needs—and teams that have gotten shut out since 2007 are 7-18 straight up in their next game (7-20 if you add the two that got blanked in their 2008 season finale, both of whom lost their opener in 2009). 

Pittsburgh 18, INDIANAPOLIS 9 (+11)—Warren Sapp shouldn't be the only one who's not impressed with the Steelers, whose offensive line has been equally inept at protecting Big Ben (six sacks and a whole slew of pressures allowed) and opening holes for the runners (95 yards rushing per game).  And how many points will they need to score to beat the punchless, Peyton-less Colts?  The kickers contribute all of the scoring, and the point-takers come away with a narrow cover.

MONDAY NIGHT

DALLAS 16, Washington 14 (+6) - The Redskins have the early lead in the NFC East because they're the only team in the division that has stayed healthy thus far—and they've covered in seven of their last nine versus the Cowboys, who may be without a raft of starters on offense including Tony Romo, who is serious about wanting to play with a punctured lung.

BEST BETS: CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA