College Football: 10 Teams in the Top 25 That Have Yet to Prove Themselves
We are now four weeks into the college football season.
Many teams have completed their out-of-conference schedule, and some teams have begun their conference slate.
There have been a number of great games, and a number of great matchups that didn't necessarily turn out to be as competitive as originally hoped.
And, of course, we have and have had two key top 25 polls.
I admit I'm not a big fan of early season polls. After all, what does it say if a team is 4-0 with all four wins over cupcakes? Moreover, what of the team that has played a monstrous September, has gone 2-2, but is poised to run the table for the rest of the season.
Ultimately, early season rankings serve no purpose other than entertainment and to reward teams based on their previously won reputations. They have no bearing on the season at hand.
Furthermore, they give an unfair advantage to said teams with a previously earned reputation. After all, in the event that three teams finish the year undefeated, and two of those teams began the season at Nos. 1 and 2, while the other team began unranked, who will finish the year left out in the cold?
In closing, I don't mean to insinuate that any of the teams in question are lousy or won't eventually earn a Top 25 ranking.
Rather, I am pointing out that a lot of teams that currently inhabit the polls have no justifiable basis for being there.
Virginia Tech Hokies
1 of 10Current Record: 4-0
Current Ranking: 11 (AP), 10 (USA Today)
Combined Record of Opponents: 4-7, plus FCS Appalachian State, who is 3-0 in FCS play
Quality Wins: None
Quality Losses: None
First/Next Real Test: October 1, Clemson Tigers
Breakdown: Many, including me, made a big deal of Virginia Tech's schedule. As it turns out, if the first four weeks of the season are a realistic indication, the Hokies' won't have as easy a path as first thought. Clemson, North Carolina and Georgia Tech all seem to present a significant challenge to V-Tech.
Nevertheless, their out-of-conference slate was as big of a cakewalk as first imagined, and the fact they squeaked by 1-2 East Carolina doesn't change that.
When it's all said and done, the Hokies may wind up undefeated, in the ACC Championship and deserving of whatever ranking they have.
But right now, they haven't beaten anybody.
Wisconsin Badgers
2 of 10Current Record: 4-0
Current Ranking: 7 (AP), 7 (USA Today)
Combined Record of Opponents: 3-8, plus FCS South Dakota, who also has a loss to Air Force and is 2-0 in FCS play
Quality Wins: None
Quality Losses: None
First/Next Real Test: Oct. 1, Nebraska Cornhuskers
Breakdown: After four weeks, the Badgers have rolled over every team in their path. In the process, they have compiled an average score of 48.5-8.5.
That is hardly impressive when one considers that one of their opponents is an FCS team and two of their other three opponents—Oregon State and UNLV—have lost to FCS opponents this year.
Meanwhile, the third opponent—Northern Illinois—beat an FCS foe, but they let up 30 points in the process.
In short, it seems ridiculous to reward Wisconsin for having that on their resume.
Oregon Ducks
3 of 10Current Record: 3-1
Current Ranking: 9 (AP), 11 (USA Today)
Combined Record of Opponents: 6-5, plus FCS Missouri State, who also has a loss to Arkansas and is 0-2 in FCS play
Quality Wins: None
Quality Losses: LSU Tigers
First/Next Real Test: Oct.15, Arizona State Sun Devils
Breakdown: This is a case of a team that lost their early-season marquee matchup, and is riding a hard-won reputation to gain unfair rewards.
In the end, their defense is suspect, and up to this point, four of their opponents' six wins belong to LSU.
In other words, outside of LSU, their opponents' combined record (including Missouri State) is 2-9. And one of those two wins was Arizona's win over FCS Northern Arizona.
Michigan State Spartans
4 of 10Current Record: 3-1
Current Ranking: 25 (USA Today). They are not ranked in the AP poll.
Combined Record of Opponents: 3-8, plus FCS Youngstown State, who is 2-1 in FCS play
Quality Wins: None
Quality Losses: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
First/Next Real Test: Oct. 1, Ohio State Buckeyes
Breakdown: MSU head coach Mark Dantonio has a career record of 2-18 against top 25 teams.
And while letting that sink in, consider that in one of his two wins—the 2010 Spartan victory over Wisconsin—he wasn't even on the sideline, as he was recovering from a heart attack.
With that in mind, I am at a loss to understand why voters have any confidence in a Michigan State team that lost to a 2-2 Notre Dame squad while handily beating a bunch of nobodies.
TCU Horned Frogs
5 of 10Current Record: 3-1
Current Ranking: 20 (AP), 20 (USA Today)
Combined Record of Opponents: 6-4, plus FCS Portland State, who is 2-0 in FCS play.
Quality Wins: Air Force Falcons is arguable
Quality Losses: Baylor Bears
First/Next Real Test: Oct. 8, San Diego State Aztecs
Breakdown: It is impossible to deny all that Gary Patterson has accomplished at TCU.
His record as the head coach of the Frogs is 100-29. Between 2008-2010, his team went 46-3, which makes them the second winningest program over that three-year stretch. In that time, they have also earned invites to two BCS bowls.
Due to this, he and his team have gained a reputation as one of, if not the best, non-AQ team in the country. Next year, the Frogs will be an AQ team if the Big East holds together.
Nevertheless, at this point in the year, TCU is getting by based on their reputation. This is funny given that the success they have achieved has been despite getting an unfair shake because they are a non-AQ school.
Right now, the Frogs are one of only two non-AQ teams in the Top 25, even though I can think of at least one non-AQ team that is currently more attractive than TCU.
Ultimately, playing a tough game against a Baylor team that also hasn't done that much to earn a top 25 ranking—other than beat TCU—seems a bit generous.
Stanford Cardinal
6 of 10Current Record: 3-0
Current Ranking: 6 (AP), 4 (USA Today)
Combined Record of Opponents: 4-8
Quality Wins: None
Quality Losses: None
First/Next Real Test: Oct. 22, Washington Huskies
Breakdown: The Cardinal signal-caller is the hottest NFL prospect to come around in years, and is a lock for the first pick in the draft if he comes out this year.
Stanford also features an offensive tackle that is a likely top 10 pick and an offensive guard that is currently projected to go late in the first round or early in the second. Plus, they have a receiver and a tight end that will go somewhere in the middle of the draft.
Finally, the Cardinal scoring defense is currently tied for fourth in the country.
So yes, odds are this team will finish the season in a pretty good place.
But right now, unless you count their win over 1-3 Arizona—who, in some fairness, has lost all three games to current top 10 teams—Stanford has not yet done anything to earn a top 25 spot, let alone a top 5 seat.
South Florida Bulls
7 of 10Current Record: 4-0
Current Ranking: 16 (AP), 14 (USA Today)
Combined Record of Opponents: 7-5, plus FCS Florida A&M who is 2-1 in FCS play
Quality Wins: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Quality Losses: None
First/Next Real Test: Arguably, Sept. 29, at Pittsburgh Panthers. Otherwise, Oct. 22, Cincinnati Bearcats
Breakdown: There is an old philosophy that goes something like in order to win a national championship you've got be Notre Dame or beat Notre Dame.
The problem is that philosophy is as outdated as the idea that the Irish are still consistently an elite team. Nevertheless, the voters continue to buy into the Notre Dame hype, whether in a win or a loss.
South Florida began the season as an unranked team, even though they were one of the favorites to win the Big East. They subsequently beat a Notre Dame squad that was ranked No. 16.
The next week, USF popped up in the rankings, and they have slowly moved up to the No. 16 spot that the Irish vacated.
Personally, I'm willing to buy the argument that the Bulls are a good team. However, right now that argument is a bit premature.
Arkansas Razorbacks
8 of 10Current Record: 3-1
Current Ranking: 18 (AP), 18 (USA Today)
Combined Record of Opponents: 5-6, plus FCS Missouri State, who also has a loss to Oregon and is 0-2 in FCS play
Quality Wins: Arguably the Troy Trojans
Quality Losses: Alabama Crimson Tide
First/Next Real Test: Oct. 1, Texas A&M
Breakdown: Take away Alabama's four wins and the Razorbacks' opponents (including Missouri State) have a combined record of 1-10.
In some fairness, Arkansas destroyed Southwest Missouri State and New Mexico. Also, Troy is no pushover.
On the other hand, they barely put up a fight against Bama and were more-or-less finished by the middle of the third quarter. At that point, Penn State deserves to be ranked every bit as much as Arkansas (and I'm not saying Penn State should be ranked).
Texas A&M Aggies
9 of 10Current Record: 2-1
Current Ranking: 14 (AP), 13 (USA Today)
Combined Record of Opponents: 8-4
Quality Wins: Arguably, the SMU Mustangs
Quality Losses: Oklahoma State Cowboys
First/Next Real Test: Oct. 1, Arkansas Razorbacks
Breakdown: I acknowledge that this one is arguable.
After all, it is dismissive to say the win over SMU wasn't a quality win, just because SMU is a non-AQ team not named Boise State or TCU. And Texas A&M did thoroughly dispatch the Mustangs.
Moreover, they played a good game against a really good OSU Cowboys team—a game they ultimately lost by one point.
Nevertheless, wins over a good SMU team and a bad Idaho team, plus a close loss to a really good OSU team hardly seem like qualifications for a No. 14/13 ranking.
In the end, this team will have plenty of opportunities to prove themselves, beginning next week.
Florida State Seminoles
10 of 10Current Record: 2-2
Current Ranking: 23 (AP), 24 (USA Today)
Combined Record of Opponents: 8-3, plus FCS Charleston Southern, who also has a loss to Central Florida and is 0-2 in FCS play
Quality Wins: None
Quality Losses: Oklahoma Sooners and Clemson Tigers
First/Next Real Test: Florida Gators on Nov. 26
Breakdown: Come on!
Why are the Seminoles still ranked?
They have done absolutely nothing to earn their ranking other than be the FSU Seminoles and play a competitive early season schedule. In the end, I can think of multiple 2-2 teams that have lost two games to ranked foes.
Moreover, when one looks at the rest of their schedule, it is apparent that this was the part of the year that the Noles had to earn their spot.
Their remaining schedule consists of exactly two teams that currently have a winning record: Florida and Wake Forest.
In effect, will it mean anything if FSU is 9-2 and highly ranked when they play the Gators?
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