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NL Cy Young 2011: Odds For the Contenders

Doug MeadJun 4, 2018

The National League Cy Young Award was pretty much a no-contest affair in the 2010 season. Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Roy Halladay dominated in his first year in the NL, with a 21-10 record, 2.44 ERA, nine complete games, four shutouts and 219 strikeouts in 250.1 innings.

Oh yeah, and he threw the 20th perfect game in the history of baseball against the Florida Marlins on May 29.

However in 2011, while Halladay has followed up his Cy Young season with another stellar performance, the decision as to who will emerge as this year's NL Cy Young Award winner is not quite so cut and dried.

Halladay has some teammates who just might have a say about that, in addition to a couple of other pitchers who have shown their stuff with some pretty remarkable performances as well.

There is officially one week left until the end of the regular season, and with the picture still not quite clear, it could come down to just who will dominate in the final games.

Here is a complete rundown of the contenders for the NL Cy Young Award, and the odds for each pitcher winning the award.

Johnny Cueto: Cincinnati Reds

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In the four years that Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto has been performing in the majors, he has improved exponentially with each passing year. With the promise that the 2010 season brought, Reds fans were anticipating continued greatness.

However, the 2011 season saw Cueto start the year on the disabled list with biceps tendinitis, and Cueto's season didn't get underway until May 8.

Cueto went six scoreless innings in his first start, and he hasn't slowed down much since. Over 24 starts, Cueto is 9-5 with a 2.31 ERA, just 0.04 behind NL ERA leader Clayton Kershaw. Opponents are only batting .220 against Cueto, and his 1.09 WHIP is sixth best in the NL.

However, Cueto strained a lat muscle in his last start against the Chicago Cubs on Sept. 14, and the Reds have shut him down for the season. Cueto will likely fall just short of the minimum innings required for the ERA title, however it doesn't take away from his sparkling performance this season.

Odds on winning the NL Cy Young Award: Five percent

Ian Kennedy: Arizona Diamondbacks

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When Ian Kennedy was acquired by the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-team trade with the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers that sent Curtis Granderson to New York and Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit, the D-Backs knew of Kennedy's potential as a starter, and were willing to allow him to grow.

Sure enough, Kennedy showed clear signs of growth in his first year with Arizona, finishing the 2010 season with a 9-10 record, a 3.80 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 32 starts.

Entering the 2011 season, Kennedy was again looked upon to continue his development atop the Diamondbacks rotation along with fellow starter Daniel Hudson.

With one week to go in the regular season, it would be safe to say that Kennedy has not disappointed.

Kennedy won his 20th game of the season on Monday, beating the Pittsburgh Pirates 1-0, and allowing just one hit in eight innings, matching his career high of 12 strikeouts and fanning the last six batters he faced. With the victory, Kennedy became the National League's first 20-game winner.

It's a pretty big effort to put forth to Cy Young Award voters with a performance like that in the final two weeks of the season for sure.

Odds on winning the NL Cy Young Award: 15 percent

Cliff Lee: Philadelphia Phillies

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There is no question that southpaw pitcher Cliff Lee has enjoyed his return to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Lee, who was 7-4 with the Phillies in 2009 following his trade from the Cleveland Indians, also pitched in with two victories in the World Series against the New York Yankees, showing that he can indeed pitch in pressure situations as well.

Now, back with the Phillies after signing a five-year, $120 million contract during the offseason, Lee has once again showed his brilliance, sporting a 16-8 record, 2.38 ERA and an NL-leading six shutouts. If NL ERA leader Clayton Kershaw falters in his final performance, Lee could claim that title as well.

As dominant as Lee has been however, Cy Young Award voters may be a bit turned off by Lee's performance in the months of April, May and July, when Lee was a combined 5-7 with a rather pedestrian 4.22 ERA.

The months of June, August and September have been lights out for Lee, but the overall body of work may hurt him.

Odds of winning the NL Cy Young Award: 15 percent

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Roy Halladay: Philadelphia Phillies

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It would be pretty difficult to look at Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Roy Halladay's 2011 season and see many negatives.

Following up on his 2010 Cy Young Award-winning season in which he became just the fifth pitcher in MLB history to win in both leagues, Halladay has been spot-on once again.

In 31 starts, Halladay is 18-6 with a 2.41 ERA, eight complete games to lead the NL, 217 strikeouts in 227.2 innings, and has only allowed 10 home runs all year.

Halladay, much like teammate Cliff Lee, could earn the NL ERA title as well, should current leader Clayton Kershaw falter in his last start.

Odds of winning the NL Cy Young Award: 20 percent

Clayton Kershaw: Los Angeles Dodgers

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When Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw defeated the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday night, he picked up his 20th victory of the season, tying him with Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ian Kennedy for the NL lead.

If Kershaw can hang on to that lead, he will have an excellent chance of winning all three pitching Triple Crown categories—wins, strikeouts and ERA.

Currently, Kershaw holds a thin lead with a 2.37 ERA, just 0.11 ahead of Cliff Lee and 0.14 over Roy Halladay.

Kershaw's 242 strikeouts are also tops, with Lee 10 Ks behind.

Kershaw also has the second-lowest WHIP at 0.99 and has held opposing hitters to a .208 batting average, also tops in the NL.

Kershaw will certainly be helped in the balloting by the fact that Lee and Halladay will likely split votes, however it would be pretty difficult to ignore a pitcher who wins the pitching Triple Crown.

Odds of winning the NL Cy Young Award: 45 percent

Doug Mead is a featured columnist with Bleacher Report. His work has been featured on the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, SF Gate, CBS Sports, the Los Angeles Times and the Houston Chronicle. Follow Doug on Twitter, @Sports_A_Holic.

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