St. Louis Cardinals: Predicting Their 2012 Opening Day Lineup

Frank BerteltSep 21, 2011

Even as far back as this past spring training, St. Louis Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak has been running through multiple long-term scenarios, ones that include star slugger Albert Pujols re-signing with the team and ones without the three-time National League MVP.

As Decision Day quickly arrives for Pujols and the Cardinals, certainly contingency plans are in place in case Pujols decides to leave the Gateway City.

The Cardinals were in first place as late as the morning of July 27, the day the team traded away center fielder Colby Rasmus to Toronto for starting pitcher and pending free agent Edwin Jackson and bullpen help.

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Less than a month later, the Cards were 10 games in back of Milwaukee. After the Rasmus deal, St. Louis went 12-15 while the Brew Crew caught fire, going an unbelievable 23-5 in the same stretch.

Mozeliak went from a win-now mode with the aggressive trade of Rasmus, the team’s top prospect a couple of years ago who had fallen out of favor with manager Tony La Russa because the young outfielder would rather listen to his dad’s advice than that of the Cardinal coaches, to a re-grouping situation looking toward the 2012 campaign.

The bounty from the Toronto deal netted the team a bunch of end-of-season rentals, and only left-handed pitcher Marc Rzepczynski seems to factor into St. Louis’ long-term plans.

The Cardinals are managing to make a run at the National League Wild Card race with a mid-September run coupled with a partial Atlanta meltdown. The Braves' lead is 1.5 games, but just one in the loss column with a week to go.

With the regular season winding down, St. Louisans will be keeping an eye on the end of the World Series, when shortly thereafter the Cardinals will have an exclusive window to negotiate with Pujols, a free-agent who will likely command the biggest salary of any major leaguer this offseason.

After that window closes, other teams can begin to pursue the slugger who has a shot at being the only major leaguer ever to hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in each of his first 11 seasons in the bigs. He is batting .305 with 36 homers and 97 RBI, so he’ll need to maintain his average and get three RBI in the Cardinals' final seven games to keep that streak going.

There will no lack of suitors for Pujols, who has been included by many in the top-5 players of all time.

Pujols was adamant that he didn’t want to talk about a St. Louis contract extension during the season, so when a deal wasn’t struck by the beginning of spring training, rampant speculation spread concerning the possibility that the Cards’ franchise player could suit up elsewhere in 2012.

October will be a nervous waiting game as the major league playoffs unfold, then Mozeliak will have to be on top of his game come November in hopes of retaining Pujols, while also keeping the team’s other key players in the fold.

The team’s September success helped ease a lot of worries in the Cardinal camp, as Allen Craig showed that he’s fully capable of being a productive everyday player in the lineup.

Additionally, Jason Motte has had a strong second half, establishing himself as the team’s closer going forward.

And Mozeliak already got one tough decision behind him, agreeing with ace pitcher Chris Carpenter on a two-year, $21 million contract extension. The team had held a $15 million option for 2012, and it would have been difficult to pick up that option AND pay Pujols in the same offseason.

In essence, the team spread some of that Carpenter money out over two years, helping both the team and the 2005 Cy Young Award winner, who wanted to finish his career in a Cardinal uniform.

Other important decisions remain. Adam Wainwright could become a free agent, with the team holding a $9 million option for 2012 on the pitcher who missed the entire season recovering from Tommy John ligament-replacement surgery.

The Cardinals also hold options on catcher Yadier Molina ($7 million) and shortstop Rafael Furcal ($12 million).

In addition to Pujols and Edwin Jackson, Lance Berkman becomes a free agent after his one-year, $8 million deal expires.

Both Berkman and Furcal have expressed an interest in returning for the 2012 season—Furcal’s option will almost certainly not be picked up, so he’ll likely hit the market.

It appears more than likely that Mozeliak will pick up Wainwright’s option for both the 2012 and 2013 seasons at a total of $21 million, meaning the top two hurlers in the St. Louis rotation will earn a combined $19.5 million next year, less than either CC Sabathia or Johan Santana.

The Cards already have Kyle Lohse ($11.8 million) and Jake Westbrook ($8.5 million) locked up for another season, and back in July the team inked arbitration-eligible Jaime Garcia to a four-year contract extension.

So, the Wainwright contract is the lone task for Mozeliak in regard to his 2012 rotation.

The rest of the dominoes will likely fall based on whether Pujols decides to return.

If he decides to stay in St. Louis, there are really only a few loose ends to tie up for next year, namely Molina’s contract and a plan for shortstop. It’s still conceivable that Berkman could return along with Pujols, but more so, it looks like Craig is ready to assume the starting job in right field—he’s younger, more athletic, a greater ceiling and, of course, cheaper.

Ryan Theriot, Furcal and even David Descalso could be looked at for the shortstop position.

Descalso and Skip Schumaker can potentially be the team’s second baseman next year. All these guys’ contracts expire at season’s end, and Schumaker faces an arbitration hearing on his 2012 salary.

In the event Pujols signs with another club, Mozeliak could use that money to take the team in a totally different direction.

Berkman could return to first base, where his limited range wouldn’t be such a liability, and Craig’s starting role in right would be solidified.

The Cardinals could go after a true leadoff threat, like Mets’ shortstop Jose Reyes, who is having a fantastic season in New York, batting .331 with 16 triples and 36 stolen bases. He has led the N.L. in triples in four of the last seven years.

Adding the switch-hitting shortstop would solve the Cardinals’ leadoff hole, a sore spot the past couple of years, and return the team to its 1980s glory days when Vince Coleman was wreaking havoc on the basepaths.

Reyes registered at least 50 steals four years in a row, from 2005-08 with a career high of 78 swiped bags during the 2007 season. St. Louis ranks last in the National League this year with 53 steals.

Reyes would represent not only a lower-cost option to Pujols, but add a dimension to the team, which this year has relied too heavily on power hitting.

The unused money could also help address other areas of need, should they determine that Jon Jay and Jason Motte are not long-term solutions in center field and closer, respectively.

Additionally, the manager’s seat may be vacant, since La Russa’s contract ends.

Some have speculated that both La Russa and Pujols will be courted as a tandem deal by the rival Chicago Cubs.

La Russa’s major league managerial career began in the Windy City as the White Sox skipper back in 1979.

His 16 seasons in St. Louis represents the longest stay he’s had with any club, longer than the eight years in Chicago or the 10 years in Oakland.

The Cubs are currently without a general manager after the mid-season firing of Jim Hendry.

Some reports have the Cubs eyeing former Cardinal GM Walt Jocketty, who hired La Russa back in 1996. Jocketty has spent the past four years in Cincinnati, helping guide the Reds to the 2010 N.L. Central crown, a year in which he was named the major league’s Executive of the Year.

Certainly, the solid play of Craig and Motte have given Cardinal fans hope they could be low-cost contributors next year, helping provide the needed funds to retain Pujols.

Craig has batted .370 in the Cards’ No. 2 hole despite missing a significant amount of time due to injury, the most serious one being a fractured kneecap he sustained in mid-June.

Motte has finally given the Cardinals some stability in the closer’s role. Since the All-Star break, the hard-throwing right-hander owns a 0.92 ERA, surrendering 16 hits in 29 innings with seven saves, while holding opponent hitters to a .160 average.

After 2012, a new influx of prospects could be ready to join the team. The team’s top prospect, pitcher Shelby Miller, is slated to hit St. Louis in 2013, followed closely by fellow stud pitcher Carlos Martinez.

The first base position in the Cardinal chain experienced a huge gain with the unexpected production of Matt Adams.

Adams, a 23rd-round selection in the 2009 draft, was named the Texas League Player of the Year after hitting .300 with 32 homers and 101 RBIs for Double-A Springfield.

This has happened despite not being listed among the organization’s top 30 prospects by Baseball America a year ago.

That will certainly change this offseason, as his maturation at the plate has been profound. Cardinal fans can watch his progression as he will play in the Arizona Fall League with the Peoria team.

Regardless of how the Pujols situation pans out, Adams will almost certainly be placed on the team’s 40-man roster next spring and spend at least the month of March in the big league camp.

The 2011 season in St. Louis was filled with nervous tension, starting with the Wainwright injury in spring training, followed by the Pujols contract drama, then the myriad of injuries to Matt Holliday, Allen Craig and David Freese.

Mozeliak hopes to have Pujols’ decision before Christmas, then the Cardinals can finally put this year behind them with much anticipation for 2012.

As for Albert? Well, it still seems unfathomable to see him in any other uni than the Cardinals’ threads.

POSSIBLE LINEUP WITH PUJOLS

1. Rafael Furcal, SS

2. Allen Craig, RF

3. Albert Pujols, 1B

4. Matt Holliday, LF

5. David Freese, 3B

6. Jon Jay, CF

7. Yadier Molina, C

8. David Descalso, 2B

SP1. Chris Carpenter, R