Packers vs Bears: 5 Reasons Why the Bears Can Win This Game

Not to sound wishy-washy or anything, but keep in mind that I'm giving the reasons why the Bears can win on Sunday—this is no guarantee that they will win.

With that said, however, I do actually feel like this is a winnable game for Chicago. Now, before you have me drug tested, hear me out—the Bears are not going to play as badly as they did against the Saints.

For one thing, they were in the first half. Some of the problems that occurred in the second half are correctable.

Sure, injuries hurt (pun intended), and Green Bay's overall talent level, especially on offense, is superior to the Bears, but when these two teams take the field, you can throw the records and statistics out the window.

I know the Bears were awful last Sunday. But strange things happen in the NFL every week.

So let's look at five reasons why I should not be committed for suggesting that the Bears can win this game.

The Bears Defense Does a Good Job of Holding Aaron Rodgers in Check

As the cliche goes, you can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him. And that is certainly true when it comes to Aaron Rodgers, who is quickly establishing himself as one of the top three QBs in the game, if not the best.

But the Bears have generally done a decent job of limiting the Green Bay offense. Consider the following:

• In 16 regular season games in 2010, Rodgers completed an average of 65.7 percent of his passes, while he completed 71.7 percent of his passes in the two regular season games against the Bears.
• Yet despite that increased percentage, Rodgers averaged 7.6 yards per pass against Chicago, while he averaged 8.75 yards per pass in the other games (excluding week 14 vs. the Lions when Rodgers attempted only seven passes).
• Further, he threw only two TDs in the Bears games. He averaged more than double that amount of touchdowns against every other team.
• Rodgers also had just a 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio in the Bears games, while he had an almost 3:1 ration against everyone else.  
• 2009 tells a similar story. Against the Bears, Rodgers threw just one TD pass. But he threw 29 TDs in the other 14 games.
• Rodgers also failed to throw even 200 yards in a game vs. the Bears. But he averaged just under 300 yards in every other game in 2009.

The Packers have scored 69 points in their last four regular season games against Chicago, an average of slightly better than 17 points per game.

Meanwhile, they averaged 27.8 points in every other game over the past two seasons.

That hasn't always resulted in a Bears victory, but it means the teams are very competitive.  

Mike Martz Has Been Taken to the Woodshed

Lovie Smith has once again slapped his offensive coordinator on the wrist. While a lot of this is Jerry Angelo's fault, Martz has to recognize that this offense just isn't working here in Chicago.

You would have thought they had learned from the Giants game last year.

Personally, I think we need a different coordinator. But until that happens, Smith will need to be the leader of this team and tell Martz not to throw the ball so damn much, and quit using all those seven-step drops.

With Frank Omiyale starting for the injured Gabe Carimi, this is the same line the Bears employed last season, minus Olin Kreutz.

But the line will play better when Martz reduced the deep drops, empty backfields and allows Cutler to roll out. The Packer's edge rushers will not be able to simply put their head down and charge Cutler if there is the chance of a screen or an off-tackle run. 

The Saints blitzed the heck out the Bears and yet Martz didn't adjust.

The balance of run to pass was abysmal. The Bears will run the ball more this Sunday and allow Cutler to move in the pocket and even scramble, and the end result will be a much closer game.

If not, then you will see something similar to what happened in New Orleans. But Smith himself said he's talked to Martz, so I'm counting on changes coming.

Home Cookin'

That Superdome in New Orleans is a very difficult place to play, and the noise level was causing all sorts of problems for the Bears offense.

But the Bears are in freshly sodded Soldier Field this Sunday to face the Packers, with the "fourth phase" (i.e., the fans) on their side.

Since 2009 season began, the Bears are 8-9 on the road, and 11-6 at home. I know this isn't earth-shattering information, as most professional sports teams win more at home than on the road, but it illustrates the point that the Bears play better in their home stadium.

And actually, I believe the god-awful field conditions at Soldier Field help to slow down high-powered offenses like Green Bay.

Last year, the Bears split the series against the Packers, winning at home and losing at the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.  

Chris Harris and Roy Williams Might Play

It all starts with protection up front, but even if the pass protection is better, Cutler needs someone to bail him out. And Roy Williams is that tall target that could fill the void left by the departure of Greg Olsen.

After a lackluster preseason, Williams looked good against Atlanta, but went down with an injury. If he can return on Sunday, and that remains a question mark, that should help the receiver corps.

Look, Devin Hester is simply not a receiver. Earl Bennett has a crushed chest. When Dane Sanzenbacher is your best available weapon, you know you're in trouble.

Meanwhile, the return of Chris Harris is 50-50 but he would be valuable in making calls during the game that may not totally prevent some of the big passes that Drew Brees connected on, but at least provide some over-the-top safety help to limit them.

Take Advantage of Packers' Injuries

First of all, I realize that the Bears are banged up too. On the offensive line, Gabe Carimi and Lance Louis are out, while Marion Barber is questionable, and Chris Harris and Roy Williams missed last week's games, among others.

And yes, I also understand that the Packers won the Super Bowl last season despite the most injuries in the league.

So what's my point? The Bears are getting healthier, albeit slowly, while the Packers may be missing key pieces.

Except for Carimi, who may not play for more than a month, Louis is getting closer to returning and I expect Williams and Harris to play.

Meanwhile, Green Bay lost Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins to a season-ending neck injury.

Add that to a defense already suffering from the loss of defensive end starter Mike Neal with a knee injury, and these are situations that Cutler can take advantage of, providing the line gives him time to throw.

Plus, WR Donald Driver and cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Sam Shields have not practiced, though they all expect to play.