NFL Week 2: 7 Last-Minute Picks Against the Spread

Week one in the NFL defied every logical line of thinking. Upsets coupled with blowouts, made kickoff weekend a memorable one.

Teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons, who returned much of their playoff, and in the Steelers case, Super Bowl rosters, were manhandled and blown out on the road.

Up and coming team's from last season, like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Kansas City Chiefs, suffered home losses. The Bucs were out of sync early and thus, were unable to pull off the comeback against a very promising Detroit Lions team.

Kansas City, whom many felt benefited from a very soft schedule last year, and made the playoffs only to be blown out by the Ravens at home, was blown out at home again, but this time by the Buffalo Bills.

A few teams that were supposed to look bad because they had young or low-grade NFL talent under center, also surprised. Case in point, the Carolina Panthers, and their rookie quarterback. Despite the loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the No.1 overall pick in this past April's draft looked impressive. Cam Newton passed for an opening day rookie record of 422 yards and threw for two touchdowns in a 28-21 loss.

The Washington Redskins, with Rex Grossman at QB, defeated the only Manning standing last week. The former Florida QB threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers in Washington's 28-14 win over the New York Giants.

When placing a wager on NFL games you should always follow two rules. The first is, and this is only if you have the discipline to do so, avoid week one. The second is, never believe everything you saw in week one.

Week two promises to again surprise, as well as deliver a few more upsets. Will the Ravens and Bears have let downs? The marquee matchup of the week has the San Diego Chargers traveling to New England to play the Patriots.

The following is a brief synopsis of every NFL game against the spread, and who will win. Each slide will have one or two important game facts, and or opinions, with one or two handicapping stats, to help you make up your mind.

If you are wondering about me, I do OK. In the last two years while competing in a well documented sports web site picking every NFL game against the spread, I won 174 games last season and 171 the year before.

My two-year average winning percentage is 67.3 percent, so for those of you not quick with math, I win almost seven of every 10 games bet on. That does not make me Brandon Lang but it's not that bad either.

So good luck and send me a message if there are any other questions or stats I may be able to provide you. Remember, please wager responsibly.

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers. (-14.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are upset, and they should be. They were absolutely destroyed by the Ravens in Baltimore during a 35-7 loss. They committed as many turnovers as they scored points, with five of them coming from QB Ben Roethlisberger.

There was a return to the fundamentals of football by head coach Mike Tomlin this week.

The Seahawks have Tavaris Jackson at quarterback and a young offensive line. The Steelers defense was embarrassed last week and will extract a measure of revenge against the Seahawks.

There is clearly a rebuilding process going on in Seattle, while nothing could be further from happening in Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost last week against the Ravens with virtually the same squad that beat Baltimore last January in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh is 6-0 under Mike Tomlin at home in September, while the Seahawks are 1-10 in the eastern time zone since 2007. The average margin of defeat for Seattle in those losses was 15.4 points.

The Seahawks are 5-2 vs. Pittsburgh against the spread since 1992 but that is a useless stat for this contest. Seattle will be 5-3 ATS vs. the Steelers by Sunday night, take Pittsburgh and give the points.

Steelers 38 - Seahawks 6

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4)

Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman, and Donovan McNabb for that matter, proved Mike Shanahan a profit last week. Grossman was very good in the victory over the New York Giants and could put up even better numbers against a depleted Cardinals secondary.

Remember, the Cardinals allowed over 400 yards to Cam Newton at home in week one and will travel east to play Washington for a one o’clock start time.

Kevin Kolb was also impressive in his Cardinals debut, but I cannot help but say it was against the Panthers. The former Eagles quarterback is 1-1 vs. Washington in his career with just one touchdown.

Washington is 7-0 vs. Arizona since 2001 and 4-2 against the spread in their past six. As long as Grossman does not become an enigma, the Skins should win and cover.

Washington 27 - Arizona 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of two sexy picks this year to make the playoffs in the NFC. The problem is, they ran into the other sexy pick last week at home, and lost.

How good was Detroit’s run defense last week against Tampa? LeGarrette Blunt, who rushed for a 1,000 yards in his rookie season last year, was held to just 15 yards on five carries last week, as Bucs QB Josh Freeman, was the team’s leading rusher.

The Minnesota Vikings looked putrid on offense in their loss to the Chargers last week. The Vikings led 17-7 at halftime, but gained only 26 yards of offense in the second half. Their new quarterback, Donovan McNabb, looked terrible against San Diego's defense and was only 7 of 15 for 39 yards, with one touchdown and one interception.

The game plan between these two teams will be very similar this week. Establish the running game early and often. However, Tampa QB Josh Freeman has a 103.1 passer rating in five career indoor starts. Adrian Peterson, who rushed for 98 yards last week, will look to pick apart the young front seven of the Tampa defense.

Look for Tampa to start strong on the road. They were 7-3 as underdogs ATS last year and four points may be one point to much. In fact, look for the Bucs to recover and win this one straight up.

Tampa Bay 24 - Minnesota 20

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-7)

Brian Urlacher is expected to play Sunday against the New Orleans Saints despite leaving Chicago earlier in the week after the death of his mother.

Urlacher had arguably the best game of his career during a week one win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Urlacher scored the Bears final points in the 30-12 home win by returning a fumble for a touchdown. He also had a team-best 10 tackles for the Bears and help set up another TD with a diving interception.

The Saints defense has looked horrendous in their last two games dating back to last year's playoff loss. They have allowed seven touchdowns and 83 points. Bears QB Jay Cutler, who threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns with one interception last week, could repeat that performance this week in the Super Dome.

However, he will not have to do it alone. Look for Bears running back Matt Forte, who returns to New Orleans after starring for Tulane during his college days, to have a big day. Forte had 158 total yards and a TD in the opener.

If New Orleans is to win this game against the Bears' tough defense, they will need Drew Brees to repeat his week one performance. Brees threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers in their week one loss.

He will be missing a few weapons at wide receiver. Marques Colston, who led the team last season with 84 receptions and 1,023 yards, is out with a broken collarbone, and Lance Moore sat out week one with a sore groin, and his status is unknown for Sunday.

The Saints are at home and will try to force a shootout. Cutler and the Bears will oblige. Chicago's emotions will be as high as the Saints will, as the Bears try to win this game for Urlacher.

The favorite is 5-0 ATS and 6-0 straight up in this series since 2001. While I like the Saints to break their four game losing streak to Chicago in an old fashion shootout, I look for the Bears to keep pace in a close game.

New Orleans 38 - Chicago 34

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+3)

Eagles QB Michael Vick is getting ready to face his former team for the second time since being released from federal prison. Two years ago, Vick came into the game and handled mop up duty, as he wound up throwing for one touchdown and running for another during a 34-7 rout of the Falcons.

Vick was cheered that day, and is expected to have his supporters from the A-T-L on hand again today. However, despite one losing season since his departure the Falcons have been just fine. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan took over as the Falcons quarterback after Vick was sent to prison, and guided the Falcons to three straight winning seasons.

Atlanta never had back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history, not even with Vick at the helm. The Falcons are the defending NFC South champions and considered, along with Vick's Eagles, among the top Super Bowl contenders in the NFC.

The Falcons were thumped in Chicago last week and the Eagles won easily in St.Louis. This week the Falcons must choose the lesser of two evils while facing their former teammate.

Do they let Vick stand in the pocket and look for receivers, or do they apply pressure and take a chance on him creating big plays with his legs? Last week, Jay Cutler found nine different receivers against the Falcons secondary.

My guess is, the Falcons will disguise their coverage a little better today than they did last week, and try to force Vick into throwing interceptions, as he still has problems reading defenses.

Whatever Atlanta does today, they must get running back Michael Turner on track. The Eagles are solid in the secondary but have question marks in their run defense. Rams running backs rushed for 146 yards last week, despite playing from behind. Granted, one of those was a 56-yard TD by Steven Jackson, but it was still on the ground.

Atlanta is 1-7 ATS and straight up against the Eagles since 2001. The Falcons are 20-4 at home since 2008, but are 6-17 ATS versus good offensive teams averaging 5.65 yards per play the last five seasons. The Eagles average six yards per play and should win in what used to be Vicks house.

Philadelphia 30 - Atlanta 24

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+6.5)

The Ravens had arguably the best all around performance of any team during week one of the NFL season. They hammered their hated rivals into submission, forcing seven turnovers in the process. In the past, the defense's performance last week would be all anyone was talking about, not anymore.

The new and more balanced Baltimore Ravens features an offense that appears to be as talented as any in the NFL this season. With Joe Flacco at quarterback, Ray Rice at running back and Anquan Boldin outside, the Ravens amassed 312 total yards of offense against the vaunted Pittsburgh D last week.

Flacco threw for 246 yards while Ray Rice and Ricky Williams combined for 170 rushing yards.

The Tennessee Titans had their offensive issues last week. They had six three-and-outs, and looked confused at times during their 16-14 loss to the Jaguars last week. One of the bright spots was new Titans QB, Matt Hasselbeck hooking up with wide out Kenny Britt.

Britt caught five passes for 136 yards and two touchdowns in the loss. Titan’s running back Chris Johnson, who avenged 94 yards per game on the ground against the Jags in his career, was held to just 24 yards last week. Johnson had just 15 touches in 11 Tennessee possessions.

These two teams have a rivalry that dates back to the days when they played in the AFC central. The Ravens have ended the Titans Super Bowl dreams on at least two occasions. Each team has won eight games in 16 regular season meetings.

Look for the Ravens to control the clock on the road today with Ray Rice and Ricky Williams. It will be hard for the Ravens to match their intensity from last week, but under John Harbaugh, the Ravens 18-1 versus teams with losing records.

The Ravens are 12-3 ATS when playing a team with a losing record over the last three seasons, and even though it is just 0-1, it’s a losing record. Look for the Ravens to cover and win pulling away late.

Baltimore 31 - Tennessee 13

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (7)

Quarterback Tom Brady gave the New England fans plenty of reason to 'lube up' and celebrate this week after his performance last week. The Pats piled up a team-record 622 total yards in a 38-24 win at Miami on Monday night, as Brady threw for the most yards ever in a Monday night contest.

The Patriots’ total yardage was also the most in the NFL since Pittsburgh amassed 645 yards versus Atlanta on Nov. 10, 2002. The problem is, the Patriots are in for a more difficult challenge today when they host the San Diego Chargers, who were the league's No.1 defense last season and allowed the fewest yards in the NFL last weekend.

New England has won four of the last five meetings, including victories in a divisional playoff contest in the 2006 season and the AFC championship game the following year. The Patriots won 23-20 at San Diego last season.

Brady was 19 for 32 with a touchdown in the game despite being sacked four times and held to a season low 179 total yards. Since that victory, Brady has thrown 30 TD passes and one interception in his last 12 regular-season games.

Today will be a tough task for Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. They head into New England trying to snap the Pats nine game winning streak of winning home openers, as well as Tom Brady's 28-game regular season home winning streak.

The winning streak by Brady is the most since the 1950's, and if the Chargers defense cannot contain Brady's young tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, underneath, than 29 is a sure thing.

The Chargers will not win the game, but they have a shot to cover. They are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage of 60 to 75 percent the last two seasons. I like the Pats, but I like the Bolts to spoil the spread with a late TD.

Patriots 30 - Chargers 24