College Football Rankings: Week 3: Wisconsin No. 1, Arizona State Ranks No. 16

College football's 2011 season is two weeks old. So far, only a few surprises have shifted the trajectory of the teams at the top of our rankings. We all are free to rank teams and debate the rankings of others.

For example, does anyone else think LSU is ranked a little high after sloppily defeating an even sloppier Oregon team and manhandling a Championship Subdivision team?

Each week, we will look at how each week's rankings and projections have been affected by the previous weekend's results.

Throughout the year, I will generate two sets of rankings each week.

1. Based upon the original benchmark established in the preseason rankings (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/837924-ncaa-football-2011-a-way-too-late-pre-season-ranking-projection-stanford-1). (Most human polls seem to work this way already.)

2. Based upon season-to-date team performance regardless of original preseason placement.

The Top 25 +1 rankings will be for everything before bowl games. These are NOT predictions for how the BCS system will rank these teams. This is my prediction of how I will rank them in December. BCS Bowls, the National Championship Game and final top 10 projections appear at the end of each week's edition and are roughly based on the BCS system.

Remember to check back each week to compare your rankings with mine. Feel free to share your opinions for why your team should be ranked higher...or lower.

Projection-Based Top 25 +1: Wisconsin Badgers New No. 1, Stanford to No. 2

The preseason rankings were based upon a game-by-game projection of wins and losses for each team. Each week, those projections are adjusted to reflect wins and losses from that week as well as how each team played, win or lose. The +1 team is a school that has not quite earned a ranking but has played above expectations and is getting closer each week.

Key Developments from Week One

Michigan joins the rankings after standing tall and scoring fast to nip Notre Dame.

Wisconsin crushes reeling Oregon State, projected to win B1G and accomplish an undefeated season.

Nebraska drops and loses projected B1G championship due to underwhelming win over Fresno State.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State climb into top 10 after dominant play in first two weeks.

Arizona State joins bounds into the middle of rankings after a solid win over Missouri in overtime.

Projection-Based Top 25 +1              Losses & [Key Wins]

	Team	Record	Losses	[Key Wins]
1.	Wisconsin	(13-0)	None	[Nebraska, Michigan State]
2.	Stanford	(13-0)	None	[Oregon, USC, Notre Dame, Utah in PAC-12 Champ.]
3.	Boise State	(12-0)	None	[Georgia, TCU, Air Force, San Diego State]
4.	Alabama	(13-0)	None	[South Carolina in SEC Champ.]
5.	Florida State	(13-0)	None	[Oklahoma, VT in ACC Champ.]
6.	Texas A&M	(11-1)	Missouri	[Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Texas]
7.	Nebraska	(11-2)	Wisconsin, Wisconsin in B1G Champ.	[Michigan State, Michigan]
8.	Oklahoma	(10-2)	Florida State, Texas A&M	[Oklahoma State]
9.	Oklahoma State	(10-2)	Texas A&M, Oklahoma	[Missouri]
10.	LSU	(10-2)	Auburn, Alabama	[Oregon, Arkansas]
11.	Virginia Tech	(12-1)	Florida State in ACC Champ.	[None]
12.	South Carolina	(11-2)	Mississippi State, Alabama in SEC Champ.	[Georgia, Florida]
13.	Oregon	(10-2)	Stanford, LSU	[USC, Nevada]
14.	Georgia	(9-3)	Boise State, South Carolina, Florida	[Mississippi State, Auburn]
15.	Arizona State	(10-3)	Oregon, California, Stanford in Pac-12 Champ.	[Missouri, USC, Utah, Arizona]
16.	USC	(9-3)	Stanford, Oregon, Arizona State	[Utah, Arizona]
17.	Michigan State	(9-3)	Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Nebraska	[None]
18.	Baylor	(9-3)	Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma	[TCU, Missouri]
19.	TCU	(10-2)	Baylor, Boise State	[Air Force, San Diego State]
20.	Utah	(10-2)	USC, Arizona State	[BYU, Arizona]
21.	Michigan	(9-3)	Mich. St., Nebraska, San Diego State	[Notre Dame, Ohio State]
22.	Houston	(12-1)	East Carolina	[UCLA, defeats UCF in C-USA Champ.]
23.	Hawai’i	(11-1)	Washington	[BYU, Nevada]
24.	West Virginia	(9-3)	LSU, Pitt, UNC	[None]
25.	Auburn	(8-4)	Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, Alabama	[Mississippi State, LSU, Florida]
+1	Arkansas	(8-4)	Alabama, TAMU, South Carolina, LSU	[Miss. State, Auburn, Tennessee]
	Others “receiving votes”:
	Notre Dame	(7-5)	South Florida, Michigan, Air Force, USC, Stanford	[Michigan State, Pitt, Navy]
	BYU	(8-4)	Texas, Utah, TCU, Hawai’i	[None]	BYU
	Central Florida	(9-4)	BYU, Tulsa, So. Miss., Houston in C-USA Champ.	None
	Southern Mississippi	(8-4)	Marshall, Navy, SMU, ECU	None
	Tulsa	(8-4)	Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Houston	None
	Arizona	(7-5)	Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon, Utah, Arizona State	None
	Air Force	(10-2)	Boise State, TCU	[Navy, Notre Dame, San Diego State]
	Ohio State	(8-4)	Mich. St., Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan	None
	Northwestern	(8-4)	Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Mich. St.	None
	San Diego State	(9-3)	Boise State, TCU, Air Force	[upsets(?) Michigan, Washington State]
	Nevada	(9-3)	Oregon, Boise State, Hawai’i	[Texas Tech, Fresno State]
	Toledo	(9-4)	Ohio State, Boise State, Syracuse, Western Michigan	[Miami (OH) for MAC Champ.]
	Miami (OH)	(9-4)	Mizzou, Cincinnati, Toledo, Toledo in MAC Champ.	None
	Ohio	(10-2)	Temple, Miami (OH)	None
	Northern Illinois	(9-3)	Kansas, Wisconsin, Toledo	None
	Missouri	(8-4)	Arizona State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor	[only team to beat TAMU]
	Florida	(7-5)	Alabama, LSU, Auburn, South Carolina, Florida State	[Georgia]
	Mississippi State	(7-5)	Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas	[South Carolina]

Performance-Based Top 25 +1: Virginia Tech Hokies' Defense Is Solid

But hold on! There's another poll?!?!

Yes! But this one is different.

This poll attempts to only consider year-to-date performance in establishing rankings. In the early weeks, before some teams get to face tougher competition, these rankings may look considerably at odds with the typical, expectations-based rankings. By the end of the season, the Projection-Based and Performance-Based Rankings should begin to look more alike.

For now, let Navy enjoy its No. 25 ranking before the Midshipmen's triple option meets the South Carolina Gamecocks' defense this weekend.

Rk	Team	Record	Losses	Wins
1.	Virginia Tech	2-0	None	Appalachian State, ECU
2.	Oklahoma	1-0	None	Tulsa
3.	Wisconsin	2-0	None	UNLV, Oregon State
4.	Alabama	2-0	None	Kent State, Penn State
5.	Boise State	1-0	None	Georgia
6.	Stanford	2-0	None	San Jose State, Duke
7.	Baylor	1-0	None	TCU
8.	LSU	2-0	None	Oregon, Northwestern State
9.	Arkansas	2-0	None	Missouri State, New Mexico
10.	South Carolina	2-0	None	East Carolina, Georgia
11.	Oklahoma State	2-0	None	Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona
12.	Florida State	2-0	None	Louisiana-Monroe, Charleston Southern
13.	Texas A&M	1-0	None	SMU
14.	Arizona State	2-0	None	UC-Davis, Missouri
15.	Michigan	2-0	None	Western Michigan, Notre Dame
16	Auburn	2-0	None	Utah State, Mississippi State
17	Nebraska	2-0	None	Chattanooga, Fresno State
18.	Florida	2-0	None	FAU, UAB
19.	Houston	2-0	None	UCLA, North Texas
20.	UCF	2-0	None	Charleston Southern, Boston College
21	South Florida	2-0	None	Notre Dame, Ball State
22	Tennessee	2-0	None	Montana, Cincinnati
23	Washington	2-0	None	Eastern Washington, Hawai’i
24	Texas	2-0	None	Rice, BYU
25	Navy	2-0	None	Delaware, Western Kentucky
+1	Washington State	2-0	None	Idaho State, UNLV

2011 Conference Champions & Championship Games Projection

Our projected rankings include December's conference championship games. Here are projected championship game competitors and championship winners.

Roughly geographically from west to east...

Pac-12 Conference: Stanford's Cardinal over Arizona State's Sun Devils

PAC-12

Stanford (12-0) v. Arizona State (10-2)

Stanford (13-0) 

Stanford's schedule looks relatively easy, and they should win the new Pac-12 North. If they can get past a rebuilt Oregon, the Cardinals have a shot at the National Championship Game.

Even if USC is the best team in the division, the Trojans cannot win the Pac-12 South due to ineligibility. Arizona State looked strong in a narrow overtime victory over Missouri. They replace Utah due to a projection of a victory over Utah in the regular season.

Stanford might have a little trouble dispatching a solid but not great Arizona State team. Both teams feature strong offenses and capable defenses, but Stanford has the edge.

Western Athletic Conference: Bryant Moniz and Hawaii Warriors Repeat

WAC
 

Hawaii (11-1)

Hawaii's chance to repeat as WAC champions increases with the departures of Boise State and Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, Vai Taua, and Dontay Moch.

A win over the Colorado Buffaloes was a great way to start the season. 

Mountain West Conference: Boise State Broncos and Kellen Moore's Left Arm

MWC

Boise State (12-0)

Boise State has a tradition of winning. They joined the MWC for 2011, but the result should be the same. Their toughest conference opponents should be Air Force, San Diego State and TCU. These are all competitive teams, but the Broncos are methodically efficient under Chris Petersen's steady command.

Georgia was no match in the Broncos' Week 1 contest in Atlanta.

Big XII (XI, X, IX) Conference: The Aggies of A&M Win on the Way out

Big XII
 

Texas A&M (11-1)

Ryan Tannehill and Texas A&M found a rhythm to finish strong in 2010, defeating Oklahoma, Baylor, Nebraska and Texas. Their strong offense could be more potent this year.

The Big XII should be one of the toughest conferences to win in 2011. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Missouri could challenge. Texas may even recover from last year's debacle of a season. Perhaps this is the year Oklahoma and Texas finally lose their duopoly. 

TAMU made a decent SMU team look terrible.

B1G (10, 11, 12): Wisconsin Badgers Win 1st B1G Championship in Indianapolis

B1G

Wisconsin (12-0) v. Nebraska (11-1)
 

Wisconsin (12-0)

Like Boise State, Nebraska has a definite shot at winning their new conference title this fall. The B1G showed strength and parity at the top in 2010. Adding the Cornhuskers should reinforce that strength. Bo Pelini will have to adjust his use of quarterback Taylor Martinez, who ran roughshod over and around opponents but eventually ran into injury trouble by year's end.

Wisconsin will be hard to beat, especially with new quarterback and North Carolina State transfer Russell Wilson. Rose Bowl competitors from last year, the Badgers might be the only team to defeat Nebraska in the regular season.

Pelini's Blackshirts will want to repay Wisconsin the favor in the inaugural B1G Championship Game in Indianapolis. Previously, these projections placed Nebraska as the favorite. After a lackluster struggle with Fresno State and dominant play by Wisconsin, the Badgers look to have the edge.

Conference USA: Case Keenum's 6th Season & Houston Cougars' Magical Year

C-USA

Houston (11-1) v. UCF (9-3)
 

Houston (12-1)

Last year, UCLA took out Case Keenum in game three. This year, the Cougars got a shot at payback in Week 1, 38-34. Now, Houston can focus on being the winning program it could have been in 2010. The Cougars will probably find a way to lose a close game to a conference opponent but will look sharp most of the year as long as the defense can play consistently.

Central Florida celebrated a remarkable year in 2010, finishing with an 11-3 record, a C-USA championship over SMU, a bowl victory over Georgia and a No. 21 ranking in the final AP poll.

Both teams will be competitive this year. However, if Keenum's rebuilt knee and the rest of the Cougars stay healthy, they may be headed for a conference championship or more. If they can manage to win all the close games, they could gain attention as a potential BCS Buster. Defense will be key.

Mid-American Conference: Toledo Rockets, Miami Redhawks, NIU Huskies, & WMU

MAC

Miami (OH) (9-3) v. Toledo (8-4)
 

Toledo (9-4) 

This conference is tough to call. Four teams look capable of taking the MAC title this year. Toledo, Miami, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan may provide a challenge for each other. The MAC may be a more difficult conference to win than the Big XII.

In 2010, the NIU Huskies lost in heartbreaking fashion to Miami in a back-and-forth contest. In 2011, Chandler Harnish and the Huskies should return to form but may lose a key contest, much like Temple did in losing to Ohio in 2009, and miss the championship game.

Miami and Toledo's seasons include several difficult non-conference opponents, which may lead to key injuries. If they can stay healthy, they will be the most battle-tested of the competitive teams in the conference.

The Redhawks of Miami may have to face Toledo twice in 2011. Toledo's Rockets return both starting quarterbacks from last year and have the offensive ability to match Miami.

Miami did look good in a close loss to Missouri. Toledo looked ruthless in a blowout against New Hampshire and quite capable in a narrow loss to in-state power Ohio State.

Southeastern Conference: Alabama Crimson Tide Roll

SEC

Alabama (12-0) v. South Carolina (10-2)
 

Alabama (13-0) 

Alabama took a back seat in 2010 as they suffered a letdown following 2009's National Championship year. The Greatest Rivalry in College Football provided last year's National Champion as well, the Auburn Tigers.

Alabama and South Carolina both look to return to the SEC game in Atlanta in December.

Alabama regroups with first-year starter and Greg McElroy's backup, A.J. McCarron. Trent Richardson should shine in a run-first offense again this year, especially with the departure of 2009 Heisman winner Mark Ingram. So far this season, defense seems to be the Tide's calling card while the offense still struggles to find its footing.

South Carolina made its first ever SEC Championship game last year, winning the East Division with a 9-3 record. Steve Spurrier, Stephen Garcia, and Marcus Lattimore look able to make a run again in 2011. Last week, the Gamecocks knocked off one of the only teams capable of challenging in the East, Georgia, the previously projected East division winner.

In the end, coach Nick Saban will have a disciplined team ready to take all comers in 2011. The Tide should give the National Championship Game a good run.

Sun Belt Conference: Troy Trojans 6-Peat, Corey Robinson's Sophomore Season

Sun Belt

Troy

Troy University has won at least a share of the Sun Belt championship each of the last five years—a conference record. In 2008 and 2009 the Trojans won outright. They look like strong favorites to win again in 2011.

Despite their Week 1 loss to Clemson, the Trojans are the best thing the Sun Belt has.

Atlantic Coast Conference: Florida State Seminoles Face Hokies Again

ACC

Florida State (12-0) v. Virginia Tech (12-0)
 

Florida State (13-0)

Jimbo Fisher has the Seminoles on the right track. Also, a relatively easy schedule sets up the possibility of a matchup of two undefeated teams in the ACC championship. FSU is relying on E.J. Manuel, a fast offense and an improved defense to win the day.

Virginia Tech lost star quarterback Tyrod Taylor and running back duo Darren Evans and Ryan Williams, but Logan Thomas and David Wilson should prove to be sufficient substitutes.

Florida State is ready for a return to relevance on the national stage, and an undefeated season could put them in National Championship conversations in November and December. The ACC could go either way, but no other team seems to be a challenge.

David Wilson and the Hokies looked like they put last year's loss to James Madison behind them in a walloping of FCS powerhouse Appalachian State.

Big East: West Virginia Mountaineers Might Be the Beast in the East

Big East
 

West Virginia (9-3)

Dana Holgorsen took a 61st-ranked offense at Oklahoma State and made it the No. 1 offense the following year. He has a history of operating high-flying, high-scoring offenses, just what West Virginia needs.

As Bill Stewart's replacement, Holgorsen should be able to capitalize on the strength of quarterback Geno Smith and a capable defense.

Still, the Big East will likely be weak again this year, so a 9-3 record may not be so difficult to beat.

Projections: BCS Bowls, Winners, National Championship Game and Final Top 10

My prediction for BCS bowls (winner):

(These projections are based on how I think the BCS will rank these conference winners and runners-up.)

Rose Bowl
Stanford v. Nebraska

Sugar Bowl
Oklahoma v. Florida State

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech v. West Virginia

Fiesta Bowl
Boise State v. Texas A&M

BCS Championship
Wisconsin v. Alabama

End of Season Top 10: Wisconsin on Top, Boise Grabs No. 2 Slot

Final Top 10

1.  Wisconsin (14-0)

2.  Boise (13-0)

3.  Alabama (13-1)

4.  Stanford (14-0)

5.  Nebraska (13-1)

6.  Texas A&M (11-2)

7.  Oklahoma (11-2)

8.  Virginia Tech (13-1)

9.  Florida State (12-2)

10. LSU (11-2)

Your Turn

Does Arkansas deserve to be ranked?

Add your comment to the comments section!

Share your opinions about each week's rankings and projections. Make a case for why your team should be included, ranked higher or even ranked lower. Also, feel free to ask for a single-team season projection or specific game projection.

Enjoy the season, everybody!