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NFL Picks: Reviewing Odds, Lines and Betting Trends from Week 1

Jeff GrantJun 7, 2018

Week 1 of the 2011 NFL regular season is officially in the books and sports bettors are already looking ahead to another full slate starting Sunday.

It's imperative to look inside the box score and recaps of last week's games to find out what you missed while enjoying the splendors of the red zone channel.

Let's take a closer look at what happened in terms of betting odds and trends that will help you prosper in upcoming weeks.

Turnovers

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NFL teams that won the turnover battle in outright fashion finished with a 9-2 against-the-spread record, including a 4-0 ATS mark for those that didn't commit a single miscue.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will likely need the entire year to make up for their minus-seven turnover differential heading into Week 2.

Turnovers are something that many casual bettors ignore when handicapping football, and that proves costly at the end of the season.

First Line Move

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Line moves come in a lot of variations, but often times the first one is the sharpest.

Casual bettors don't really understand it and will often miss the best available number over the course of the week.

Sharp bettors that played the Houston Texans as three-point favorites early in the offseason had nearly a touchdown advantage on players that walked into sports books for the first time last Sunday.

The first week of the regular season is unique due to the amount of time lines are available to wager on leading up to kickoff.

With that being said, the first initial move in all 16 games finished the opening week with a 7-9 ATS record.

Home Underdogs

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Home underdogs are something that every NFL bettor should monitor throughout the season, as these games often see the most early wagers when lines are released.

Teams that received points while playing in their home stadium went 3-2 ATS in Week 1.

Looking back at least year's opening week, home underdogs finished with a 5-3 ATS mark.

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Quarterbacks Rule Week 1

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Paced by New England's Tom Brady throwing for 517 yards on Monday Night Football against the Miami Dolphins—league quarterbacks provided dominant performances.

Seven signal-callers threw for over 300 yards, including three that went over the 400-yard mark.

Strangely enough for bettors, all the high-flying action led to a 6-10 ATS record for teams that finished with more passing yards than their opponent.

Preseason Record

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The NFL preseason is still seen as meaningless for the casual fan, but proved to be profitable for sports bettors crunching the numbers.

Teams that finished with a better exhibition record than their Week 1 opponent came away with a 7-4 ATS mark.

I guarantee that Kansas City Chiefs head coach Todd Haley places a little more emphasis on trying to win one of these so-called meaningless events next year.

His team was handed a 41-7 loss versus the Buffalo Bills as 3.5-point home favorites, which followed an 0-4 SU mark in the preseason.

EPIC NFL Thanksgiving Slate 🙌

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