NFL 2011: Top 10 Ways Week 1 Proved NFL's Unpredictability

One of the greatest things about sports is that the unexpected is routine and nothing goes according to plan.

In no sport is this more true than in football, a game in which countless factors determine the final outcome.  Failing to convert a third down in the first quarter could have repercussions that reverberate throughout the entire game.  A punt that went into the end zone instead of staying inside the 10-yard line could determine whether or not a team drives for a touchdown that could provide momentum.

Examples like these are reasons why the NFL is impossible to predict.  Try as they might, so-called "experts" will never be able to accurately predict outcomes for an extended period of time unless some magical, all-knowing mathematical formula is produced.

It struck me that in Week 1 of the 2011 NFL season, many things didn't go according to plan.  And by many, I mean nearly everything.  Here are the top 10 things that happened that prove the NFL is impossible to predict. 

10. Tony Romo Was Not a New Man in the Meadowlands

Romo played well enough, but he reverted to Old Romo in the fourth quarter, engineering a spectacular fourth-quarter collapse in front of a national television audience that did nothing to make people believe the 2011 version of the Cowboys will be different from years past.

Coming off of an injury-riddle 6-10 campaign last year, Romo had a chance to make a statement against a Jets team that is coming off consecutive AFC title game appearances.  For three quarters, Romo shredded the Jets secondary and gave the Cowboys a commanding 24-10 lead.  Then, after a superb over-the-top pass to Jason Witten went to the Jets' 1-yard line, Romo proceeded to dive to the end zone on third and goal and lose the ball.  But it didn't end there.

After a series of baffling penalties (including a delay of game) forced the Cowboys out of field goal range and allowed the Jets to tie the game at 24, Romo had a chance to exorcise his demons and lead Dallas on a game-winning drive.  But his errant—and absolutely inexplicable—throw went into the hands of Darrelle Revis and gave the Jets the field position necessary to kick a game-winning 50-yard field goal.

Tony Romo, a new man?  Not quite.

9. Special Teams Ruled Despite the Rule

During the preseason, the No. 1 concern on seemingly every fan's mind was the rule change that moved kickoffs up five yards.  The exorbitant amount of touchbacks was a bone of contention amongst nearly every football fan, because it essentially took away big returns and seemed to nullify the need to even kick the ball off in the first place.

While Week 1 had its fair share of touchbacks, three kickoffs were returned for touchdowns—tying an NFL record for most kickoffs returned for scores on opening day.  Randall Cobb, Percy Harvin and Ted Ginn, Jr. all went the distance.  Ginn also had a punt return for a score, one of several on the day as well.

We all thought the art of the kickoff return would die.  Apparently, it's still alive as ever.

8. Good Rex Showed Up in Washington

Rex Grossman's name is synonymous with things like "turnover" and "losing," but neither was really a factor in the Washington Redskins' 28-14 victory over the New York Giants.

Grossman had much more good than bad, contrary to what people believed would happen.  He was an efficient 21-of-34 for 305 yards, two touchdowns and—most importantly—zero interceptions.  His quarterback rating was a stellar 110.5.

Grossman has had his good days and his bad days.  But if "experts" had been paying attention, they might have seen Sexy Rexy's good day coming.  In his career, Grossman has only four 300-yard passing games.  Three of those have come in his last four games as a Redskin.

While it may not hold true for the rest of the season, Rex Grossman showed that the assumption he would struggle against the Giants was perhaps unwise.

7. Who Is Randall Cobb?

The Packers are the most explosive team in the league... the Packers are set for the season... the Packers don't need another receiver...

Try telling that to Cobb, the University of Kentucky product who shocked the world by stealing the show in the NFL season opener.  In a game with high scoring, big plays, and star-studded lineups, Cobb stood out above everyone and made a name for himself.  He scored on a stunning 32-yard catch and run play and tied an NFL record by returning a kickoff 108 yards for a touchdown.  He broke tackles, he stuttered around defenders and took it to the house like a wily veteran.

No one thought that the most exciting player on the field on Thursday night would be this no-name second round pick.

6. Bengals Beat the Browns

At the beginning of the season, I thought it was a given that the Bengals would lose at least 14 games.  At least.

After seeing them thoroughly take apart the Cleveland Browns—a team that many "experts" considered a dark horse contender—I am forced to say that perhaps I am wrong.  All signs pointed to a Bengals implosion in 2011, but Cincinnati did its part in debunking conventional NFL logic by dispatching the Browns quite easily.

Though the Bengals will still finish with a losing record—of that, I am quite sure—they proved for at least one week that in the NFL, lack of talent means nothing when it comes down to who wants it more.

5. The Chicago Bears Will Not Lie Down

It was widely accepted that the 2010 version of the Chicago Bears lucked their way to an NFC Championship appearance.  They had a mediocre offense that was held up by a very good defense, and the bounces always seemed to go their way.

Whoa.  The Bears didn't just beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, they thoroughly dominated them with a ferocious defense and an efficient offense.  There was nothing lucky about what the Bears did, they simply were the better team.  Remember, the Falcons were 13-3 and the No. 1 seed in the NFC last season.  

The Bears don't seem to like their doubters.  I think we were all proven wrong this weekend.

4. Donovan McNabb Was Awful

This slide needs no explanation other than this: Donovan McNabb, he of the infamous 2010 season in Washington, had his first pass as a Viking intercepted and finished with the following stat line:

7-of-15 for 39 yards (2.6 yard average), one touchdown, one interception, 47.9 rating.

For someone with such high expectations, tell me this isn't a disappointment.  Also, as a Redskins fan, I personally see those stats, point very deliberately and laugh.

3. Jamaal Charles Might Not Be Ready

Against a Bills defense that last season could only be described as "horrid," Charles had a bumbling stat line of 10 carries for 56 yards and a touchdown.  But this speaks to a larger issue that everyone assumed would be solved in 2011.

Yes, I understand the Chiefs needed to throw the ball often as they were behind for most of the game, but it still barely justifies the limited use of one of the league's most talented running backs.  56 yards on 10 carries means Charles still averaged 5.6 yards per carry, which is superb.

I, along with many other pundits, figured Charles would get many more carries than normal this season.

I guess we were wrong.

We were wrong about the Chiefs and Bills too.  Buffalo dominated 41-7.

2. The Ravens Are Ready to Take over

There was really no reason to believe that the Baltimore Ravens could finally get over the hump against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2011.  The Steelers have dominated the NFL's best rivalry for a few years now, and there were no signs that it would let up.

Talk about being wrong.

In a matchup that has had as many blowouts as Los Angeles has football teams, the Ravens quite literally obliterated the Steelers and pounded them into submission.  The 35-7 final was defined by Pittsburgh's seven turnovers, forced by a terrifying Ravens defense.  Joe Flacco had his way with Pittsburgh's vaunted defense and the Ravens subsequently sent every pro football forecaster into hiding.

1. Cam Newton Set the Desert on Fire.

The biggest surprise of the weekend came courtesy of the biggest name in the 2011 draft.  But don't say you saw it coming, because you didn't.  No one did.  Any quarterback whose skill set is compared to Tim Tebow by experts should never be expected to throw for 422 yards in a debut.

What Cam Newton did defied all logic and convention.  Before the game, I had him going for around 180 yards and a score.  He only did about EVERYTHING better than that.  Should we even consider this guy a run-first quarterback?  He looked comfortable and poised and almost led the Panthers on a long game-tying drive.  It was about as successful a debut as he could have possibly hoped for.

To me, Newton's performance defined Week 1.  We all thought we knew what would happen at the start of the season, and we were all proven utterly wrong.  Newton personified this in his spectacular and thoroughly unpredictable rookie debut.