US Open Tennis 2011: Roger Federer's Rival Is Match Point

Roger Federer serves at 40-15, 5-4 in the fifth set. Novak Djokovic is nodding his head and grimacing, seemingly in acknowledgment that the match has escaped from him and is reaching its conclusion. The ball goes up, the serve is wide to the forehand, and Djokovic hits a return that looks harder than the serve was into the far corner. Federer cannot even respond to it.

From there, Djokovic breaks back, holds serve, breaks again, holds serve and the match is over. He wins the US Open semifinal against Roger Federer from two match points down. If this sounds familiar, it’s probably because almost the exact same thing happened last year.

Federer used to be an untouchable front-runner, having had a record of 178-0 if up two sets to love before Wimbledon this year. But that record was broken at Wimbledon and broken again this last weekend.

A pattern has emerged over the past few years of Federer having difficulty closing out matches. He lost having had match points against Gael Monfils in Paris last year. The same thing happened at Indian Wells against Marcos Baghdatis months before.

Against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2009, he was up 5-1 in the third set before ultimately dropping the match. Going back to 2006, he held match points against Rafael Nadal in Rome but eventually succumbed. There were even instances in Grand Slams: he lost having match points against Marat Safin in 2005, and was two points from victory against Juan Martín Del Potro at the US Open in 2009.

Of course, in any career, especially one as prestigious as Federer’s, there are going to be matches like this. The problem is that they are becoming more and more frequent. Federer has gotten out of some incredible deficits (see this), but recently he has blown some incredible leads.

Facing set points against Djokovic in the Final of the US Open in 2007, Federer was fearless. He was constantly the aggressor, rocketing shots as Djokovic (back then) was too passive in the deciding moments. Djokovic double faulted to give him the break he needed, and Federer managed to pull through in straight sets.

In the past two US Opens where they have met, it has been the opposite. Djokovic nailed two untouchable forehands in their 2010 meeting to escape match points, and his return this year was one of the most daring and impressive I have seen. Federer even double faulted to give away a game.

Federer and Djokovic’s roles have reversed, with Djokovic taking on the number one ranking while Federer fell to third (where Djokovic used to reside). The only difference between the two players in their most recent US Open match, as they both said in their press conferences, was confidence during the biggest points. If Federer wants to beat Djokovic and gain more grand slam titles, he needs to play the big points like he did in the US Open in 2007, not like he did on Saturday.