Rafael Nadal: Why His US Open Title Defense Is in Jeopardy

The last two days at Flushing Meadows have brought frustration, despair, and disappointment for all the wrong reasons. The US Open has been afflicted by a problem too often associated with its Wimbledon counterpart across the Atlantic—bad weather.

Play has been suspended, or cancelled, for the last two days, and the men of the bottom half of the men's draw have played a grand total of ten games for their fourth round matches. Increasing doubt is now being placed on the ability of any of these men (Nadal, Murray, Roddick, Ferrer, Muller, Isner, Simon, Young) to win the US Open.

Much more so than the four men in the top half, who are already in the quarterfinals, and will have an extra day's rest, should play resume as planned tomorrow.

For Nadal and his crew it will take four straight days of play—assuming, again, play resumes tomorrow—if the tournament is to finish on time. Four straight days, moreover, of best-of-five set matches. It would be tough enough in a Master Series best-of-three set format, but this must be simply impossible.

Most of all, this will affect the hopes, one feels, of Rafael Nadal. Seeking to defend a title he worked so hard to win last year, the Spaniard has not only been uneasily disturbed by a familiar foe (leg pain and cramps), he is now faced with an increasingly uphill battle.

What's more, he resumes against big serving Gilles Muller, who is currently up 3-0 in the first set.

If he should negotiate his way past Muller, he will face either one of Ferrer or Roddick—the former his Australian Open conqueror, and the latter someone who will always be tough to face at Flushing.

Winning that, he will face anyone of Isner, who very nearly beat him on clay at his favourite Roland Garros, Simon, who's beaten him before, Young, an upcoming American who would surely be hard to beat if he were to get to the semifinals, and, most likely, Andy Murray, who defeated him three years ago when he was at the peak of his powers.

Should Nadal get past all these obstacles—injury issues notwithstanding—he seems poised to face Federer or Djokovic. The former, of course, will always be tough at the grand slams, and the latter, someone he would rather not face for some time to come.

This is, of course, only if he isn't already too fatigued by the time finals day comes along. Winning at the US Open has always involved, more so than at the other slams, an element of stamina and endurance.

'Super Saturday', as it has come to be known, with the men's semifinals and women's final in consecutive matches, is followed the day after by the final Sunday. Last year, Djokovic had the benefit of an extra day of rest (due to rain of all things), after an exhausting match against Federer.

Andy Roddick managed a title in 2003 when he had to play three straight days, but it is no consolation. Andy Murray has already admitted that winning from the position he and the other guys on his half face is practically impossible, and Nadal might do well to take on such a mindset.

But champions are champions, and he will surely do everything in his power to overcome what seems an almost insurmountable set of circumstances. For now, the best he can pray for would be more rain: a delay, and suspension tomorrow, might ultimately force a Monday or even Tuesday end to the tournament.

It seems that Hurricane Irene will wreak the heavenly-ordained climatic destruction on the US Open, which seemed so blissfully bygone on Day 1. At least, it already has, on Rafael Nadal’s US Open title hopes.

He is a superhuman, we all know that. But winning from here, and playing four straight days of five set matches just seems a bit too much even for the mighty Rafa.