College Football 2011: A Way Too Late Preseason Ranking, Projection: Stanford #1

We have all seen "Way Too Early" college football rankings. They come out in January immediately following the season or in June after Spring camp.

Well, here is quite possibly the first ever edition of the "Way Too LATE" Pre-Season Rankings and Projections.

Week one has come and gone. Robert Griffin, III, im-pressed, the state of Oregon is de-pressed, and Boise State's defense simply . . . pressed. The latest uniform incarnations featured Ghost Horses, Power Rangers, and the flag of Lord Baltimore.

I wish I could claim "fashionably late" superiority. The truth is that I just joined Bleacher Report and need to catch up.

So, let us establish a baseline for the rest of the season. In the weeks preceding Thursday, 1 September's opening kickoff between Murray State and Louisville, I processed every FBS team's season. I included projected wins and losses as well as potential ranking.

The following slides are that projection, unchanged, as yet, by week one. Each week, we will look at how those projections have been effected by the previous weekend's results.

Throughout the year, I will generate two sets of rankings.

1. Based upon the original benchmark established in the pre-season rankings. (Most human polls seem to work this way, already.)

2. Based upon season-to-date team performance regardless of original pre-season placement.

The Top 25 + 1 rankings will be for everything before bowl games. These are NOT predictions for how the BCS system will rank these teams. This is my prediction of how I will rank them in December. BCS Bowls, National Championship Game, and final Top 10 projections appear at the end of each week's edition and are roughly based on the BCS system.

Remember to check back each week to compare your rankings with mine. Feel free to share your opinions for why your team should be ranked higher . . . or lower.

College football's 2011 season is underway, and so are we!

2011 Pre-Season Top 25 + 1: Andrew Luck & Stanford Cardinal Top Crimson Tide

These pre-season rankings are based upon a game-by-game projection of wins and losses for each team. Each week, the +1 team will be a team who has not quite earned a ranking but has played above expectations and is getting closer each week.

Pre-Season Top 25 +1              Losses & [Key Wins]

	Team	Record	Losses	Key Victories
1.	Stanford	(13-0)	None	[Oregon, USC, Notre Dame, Utah in PAC-12 Champ.]
2.	Alabama	(13-0)	None	[Georgia (or S.Car.) in SEC Champ.]
3.	Nebraska	(12-1)	Wisconsin	[Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin in B1G Champ.]
4.	Boise State	(12-0)	None	[Georgia, TCU, Air Force, Nevada]
5.	Florida State	(13-0)	None	[Oklahoma, VT in ACC Champ.]
6.	Texas A&M	(11-1)	Missouri	[Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Texas]
7.	Wisconsin	(12-1)	loses to Nebraska in B1G Champ.	[Nebraska, Michigan State]
8.	Oregon	(11-1)	Stanford	[LSU, USC, Nevada]
9.	Georgia	(10-3)	Boise State, Florida, Alabama in SEC Champ.	[upsets S.Car. the week after losing to Boise]
10.	TCU	(11-1)	Boise State	None
11.	Virginia Tech	(12-1)	Florida State in ACC Champ.	None
12.	Michigan State	(10-2)	Wisconsin, Nebraska	None
13.	Oklahoma	(10-2)	Florida State, Texas A&M	[Oklahoma State]
14.	Oklahoma State	(10-2)	Texas A&M, Oklahoma	[Missouri]
15.	South Carolina	(10-2)	Georgia, Mississippi State	None
16.	Missouri	(10-2)	Oklahoma, Oklahoma State	[only team to beat TAMU]
17.	LSU	(9-3)	Oregon, Auburn, Alabama	[Arkansas]
18.	USC	(9-3)	Stanford, Oregon, Arizona	[Utah]
19.	Houston	(12-1)	East Carolina	[UCLA, defeats UCF in C-USA Champ.]
20.	Hawai’i	(11-1)	Washington	[BYU, Nevada]
21.	BYU	(9-3)	Texas, TCU, Hawai’i	[Utah]
22.	Utah	(9-4)	USC, Arizona, BYU, Stanford in PAC-12 Champ.	None
23.	West Virginia	(9-3)	LSU, Pitt, UNC	None
24.	Air Force	(10-2)	Boise State,TCU	[Navy, Notre Dame, San Diego State]
25.	Arkansas	(8-4)	Alabama, TAMU, South Carolina, LSU	[Miss. State, Auburn, UT]
+1	Nevada	(9-3)	Oregon, Boise State, Hawai’i	[Texas Tech, Fresno State]
	Others “receiving votes”:
	Notre Dame	(7-5)	South Florida, Mich. St., Air Force, USC, Stanford	[Michigan, Pitt, Navy]
	Central Florida	(9-4)	BYU, Tulsa, So. Miss., Houston in C-USA Champ.	None
	Southern Mississippi	(9-3)	Navy, SMU, ECU	None
	Tulsa	(8-4)	Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Houston	None
	Arizona	(8-4)	Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona State	None
	Michigan	(8-4)	Notre Dame, Mich. St., Nebraska, San Diego State	[Ohio State]
	Ohio State	(8-4)	Mich. St., Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan	None
	Northwestern	(8-4)	Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Mich. St.	None
	San Diego State	(9-3)	Boise State, TCU, Air Force	[upsets(?) Michigan, Washington State]
	Toledo	(9-4)	Ohio State, Boise State, Syracuse, Western Michigan	[Miami (OH) for MAC Champ.]
	Miami (OH)	(9-4)	Mizzou, Cincinnati, Toledo, Toledo in MAC Champ.	None
	Ohio	(10-2)	Temple, Miami (OH)	None
	Northern Illinois	(10-2)	Wisconsin, Toledo	None
	Auburn	(8-4)	Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, Alabama	[manages to defeat a one loss LSU team that goes on to lose to Alabama, the following week]
	Florida	(7-5)	Alabama, LSU, Auburn, South Carolina, Florida State	[delivers only conference loss to Georgia unless S.Car. can beat Georgia]
	Mississippi State	(7-5)	Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas	[South Carolina]

2011 Conference Champions & Championship Games Projection

Our projected rankings include December's conference championship games. Here are projected championship game competitors and championship winners.

Roughly geographically from west to east . . .

Pacific 12 Conference: Stanford's Cardinal over Utah's Utes

PAC-12

Stanford (12-0)
v.                                    
Utah (9-3)

Stanford (13-0) 

Stanford's schedule looks relatively easy and it should win the new Pac-12 North. If it can get past a rebuilt Oregon, the Cardinal have a shot at the National Championship Game.

Even if USC is the best team in the division, the Trojans cannot win the Pac-12 South due to ineligibility. Utah looks to make an impact during its first season in its new conference.

Stanford should have no trouble dispatching a good but not great Utes team.

Western Athletic Conference: Bryant Moniz and Hawai'i Warriors Repeat

WAC
Hawai’I (11-1)

Hawai'i's chances to repeat as WAC champions increases with the departures of Boise State and Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, Vai Taua, and Dontay Moch.

Mountain West Conference: Boise State Broncos and Kellen Moore's Left Arm

MWC
Boise State (12-0)
Boise State has a tradition of winning. They join the MWC for 2011, but the result should be the same. Their toughest conference opponents should be Air Force, San Diego State, and TCU. They are all competitive teams, but the Broncos are methodically efficient under Chris Petersen's steady command.

Big XII (XI, X, IX) Conference: The Aggies of A&M Win on the Way Out

Big XII
Texas A&M (11-1)
Ryan Tannehill and Texas A&M found a rhythm to finish strong in 2010, defeating Oklahoma, Baylor, Nebraska, and Texas. Their strong offense could be more potent this year. The Big XII should be one of the toughest conferences to win in 2011. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri could challenge. Texas may even recover from last year's debacle of a season. Perhaps this is the year Oklahoma and Texas finally lose their duopoly. 

B1G (10, 11, 12): Nebraska Cornhuskers Win 1st B1G Championship in Indianapolis

B1G
Wisconsin (12-0)
v.                                    
Nebraska (11-1)
Nebraska (12-1)

Like Boise State, Nebraska has a definite shot at winning their new conference title this fall. The B1G showed strength and parity at the top in 2010. Adding the Cornhuskers should reinforce that strength. Bo Pelini will have to adjust his use of quarterback Taylor Martinez who ran roughshod over and around opponents but eventually ran into injury trouble by year's end.

Wisconsin will be hard to beat, especially with new quarterback and North Carolina State transfer Russell Wilson. Rose Bowl competitors from last year, the Badgers might be the only team to defeat Nebraska in the regular season.

Look for Pelini's Blackshirts to repay Wisconsin the favor in the inaugural B1G Championship Game in Indianapolis.

Conference USA: Case Keenum 6th Season & Houston Cougars' Magical Year

C-USA
Houston (11-1)
v.
UCF (9-3)
Houston (12-1)

Last year, UCLA took out Case Keenum in game three. This year, the Cougars get a shot at payback in week one. After that, Houston can focus on being the winning program it could have been in 2010. The Cougars will probably find a way to lose a close game to a conference opponent, but will look sharp most of the year as long as the defense can play consistently.

Central Florida celebrated a remarkable year in 2010, finishing with an 11-3 record, a C-USA championship over SMU, a bowl victory over Georgia, and a 21st-place ranking in the final AP poll.

Both teams will be competitive this year. However, if Keenum's rebuilt knee and the rest of the Cougars stay healthy, they may be headed for a conference championship or more. If they can manage to win all the close games, they could gain attention as a potential BCS Buster. Defense will be key.

Mid-American Conference: Toledo Rockets, Miami Redhawks, NIU Huskies, & WMU

MAC
Miami (OH) (9-3)
v.
Toledo (8-4)
Toledo (9-4) 

This conference is tough to call. Four teams look capable of taking the MAC title this year. Toledo, Miami, Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan may provide a challenge for each other. The MAC may be a more difficult conference to win than the Big XII.

In 2010, the NIU Huskies lost in heartbreaking fashion to Miami in a back and forth contest. In 2011, Chandler Harnish and the Huskies should return to form, but may lose a key contest much like Temple did in losing to Ohio in 2009 and missing the championship game.

Miami and Toledo's season include several difficult non-conference opponents, which may lead to key injuries. If they can stay healthy, they will be the most battle tested of the competitive teams in the conference.

The Redhawks of Miami may have to face Toledo twice in 2011. Toledo's Rockets return both starting quarterbacks from last year, and have the offensive ability to match Miami.

Southeastern Conference: Alabama Crimson Tide Roll, Defense and Trent Richardson

SEC
Alabama (12-0)
v.
Georgia (10-2)
Alabama (13-0) 

Alabama took a back seat in 2010 as they suffered a let down following 2009's National Championship year. The Greatest Rivalry in College Football provided last year's National Champion, as well, the Auburn Tigers.

Alabama and Georgia both look to return to the SEC game in Atlanta after less than spectacular seasons.

Alabama regroups with first-year starter and Greg McElroy's backup, A.J. McCarron. Trent Richardson should shine in a run-first offense again this year, especially with the departure of 2009 Heisman winner, Mark Ingram.

Georgia finished 6-7 last year with a Liberty Bowl loss to UCF, 10-6. Nonetheless, if Georgia can defeat South Carolina, even after receiving a Boise State drubbing in the Georgia Dome to start the season, the Bulldogs will be in the driver's seat in a relatively weak SEC East. Aaron Murray gives the Dawgs a shot every time, as long as his rebuilt offensive line comes together.

Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks may beg to differ. The result of their 10 September clash will depend on which UGA or USC teams show up in Athens. Both teams have a recent history of self-inflicted wound behavior in big games.

Either way, coach Nick Saban will have a disciplined team ready to take all comers in 2011. The Tide should give the National Championship Game a good run.

Sun Belt Conference: Troy Trojans Six-Peat, Corey Robinson's Sophomore Season

Sun Belt
Troy

Troy University has won at least a share of the Sun Belt championship each of the last five years, a conference record. In 2008 and 2009 the Trojans won outright. They look like strong favorites to win again in 2011.

Atlantic Coast Conference: Florida State Seminoles Face Hokies Again

ACC
Florida State (12-0)
v.
Virginia Tech (12-0)
Florida State (13-0)

Jimbo Fisher has the Seminoles on the right track. Also, a relatively easy schedule sets up the possibility of a match-up of two undefeated teams in the ACC championship. FSU is relying on E.J. Manuel, a fast offense, and an improved defense to win the day.

Virginia Tech lost star quarterback Tyrod Taylor and running back duo Darren Evans and Ryan Williams, but Logan Thomas and David Wilson should prove to be sufficient substitutes.

Florida State is ready for a return to relevance on the national stage, and an undefeated season could put them in National Championship conversations in November and December. The ACC could go either way, but no other team seems to be a challenge.

Big East: West Virginia Mountaineers Might Be the Beast in the East

Big East
West Virginia (9-3)

Dana Holgorsen took a 61st ranked offense at Oklahoma State and made it the number one offense the following year. He has a history of operating high-flying, high-scoring offenses, just what West Virginia needs.

As Bill Stewart's replacement, Holgorsen should be able to capitalize on the strength of quarterback Geno Smith and a capable defense.

Still, the Big East will likely be weak again this year, so, a 9-3 record may not be so difficult to beat.

Projections: BCS Bowls, Winners, National Championship Game, and Final Top 10

My prediction for BCS bowls (winner):
(These projections are based on how I think the BCS will rank these conference winners and runners-up.)

Rose Bowl (PAC-12 at-large v. B1G champ)
Oregon v. Nebraska

Sugar Bowl (B1G at-large v. ACC champ)
Wisconsin v. Florida State

Orange Bowl (ACC at-large v. Big East champ)
Virginia Tech v. West Virginia

Fiesta Bowl (BCS at-large v. Big XII champ)
Boise State v. Texas A&M

BCS Championship (BCS 1 v. BCS 2)
Stanford v. Alabama

End of Season Top 10: Stanford Cardinal Stay on Top, Boise State Leaps to Second

Final Top 10
1.  Stanford (14-0)
2.  Boise (13-0)
3.  Alabama (13-1)
4.  Wisconsin (13-1)
5.  Oregon (12-1)
6.  Florida State (13-1)
7.  Virginia Tech (13-1)
8.  Nebraska (12-2)
9.  Texas A&M (11-2)
10. TCU (12-1)

Your Turn!

Add your comment to the comments section!

Share your opinions about each week's rankings and projections. Make a case for why your team should be included, ranked higher, or even ranked lower. Also, feel free to ask for a single-team season projection or specific game projection.

Enjoy the season everybody!