2011 NFL Predictions: 5 Reasons Why the Chicago Bears Will Surprise Critics

The assembled punditry has not been kind to the Chicago Bears this preseason. The NFC runner-up and defending NFC North champion has been the chic pick among critics to take a step back in 2011.

Just a small sampling of the many slights:

• Sports Illustrated sage Peter King predicts the Bears will finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs.
• None of the 12 ESPN.Com experts picked the Bears to make playoffs.
• Las Vegas sets the over/under for the Bears’ win total this year at a modest 8.5.

But none of that negative prognosis compares to the sledgehammer of skepticism levied by Sports Illustrated’s Andrew Perloff. Perloff beat the critical rush by calling for a 2011 Bears regression—while they were securing the NFC’s second seed last season.

Why the doom and gloom, gentleman? Are these Chicago Bears really the Cincinnati Bengals of a year ago? 

I say no, with emphasis.

Pick those chins up, Bears fan, and consider these five reasons why Chicago will stump the critics in 2011 and qualify for the playoffs.

Jay Cutler

Jay Cutler has been a lightning rod for anyone with an opinion about this team for the past two years. He’s either everything that’s wrong with the Bears or everything that’s right with them. 

So, in the most objective sense possible, how has he done? Let’s check the stats.

Year 1: 3,666 yards, 27 TD, 26 INT, 60.5% completion, 76.8 passer rating
Year 2: 6,940 yards, 50 TD, 42 INT, 60.5% completion, 80.9 passer rating

That’s a productive tally trending in the right direction under offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Cutler has been an above-average QB in the NFL for five seasons now and he’s just turned 28.

In a league where quarterback success largely drives team outcomes, the Bears have to feel pretty good about their position with Cutler at the helm. He’s had turnover issues in the past, but those are precisely the types of flaws that tend to diminish as players enter their prime.

Or, if you prefer another lens, look at Cutler compared to his peers. By my estimation there are only four established quarterbacks in the NFC that are clearly better than Cutler right now: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo and Matt Ryan. Cutler is clearly on that second level with top QBs like Michael Vick, Eli Manning and Josh Freeman.

Five of the six NFC playoff teams will likely come from teams led by those eight passers (with an additional team emerging from the flaccid NFC West). 

I think you could easily make the argument that Cutler is one of the top six quarterbacks in the NFC. By extension, the Bears should also finish in the sacred six.

The Defense

The Bears bring back the core of a defensive unit that finished second in the NFC in points allowed last season. The familiar names—Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman—will mesh with veteran add-ons like Brandon Meriweather to keep Chicago in most every game it plays. 

Briggs’ contract demands add unneeded drama here, but there’s little evidence to suggest unhappy players actively sabotage their teams’ seasons. As long he’s in uniform and the Bears win, Briggs will keep the cart moving forward. 

Just read those names again—Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers, Tillman—and try to pick against this defense. 

Soldier Field, late November, I’m taking that quartet.

An Improving Offensive Line

I haven’t been the biggest Mike Tice supporter in the past, but I like what he’s doing with the offensive line this year. In an attempt to stabilize a unit that suffered from capricious micro-management in 2009 and 2010, Tice has done his best to keep the same five starters together through training camp and the preseason in order to establish continuity. 

In the end he nearly pulled it off, making just one small adjustment to the offensive line—Chris Spencer for Roberto Garza—during the preseason. 

Wisconsin rookie Gabe Carimi lends the idea of an even-handed approach some legitimacy, with his early play proving that he’s a permanent fixture up front. 

If the Bears can make even incremental improvement to offensive line, their offense could move above league average. Because of protection problems, the Bears had to rely on quick drops and yards-after-catch production from their wide receivers in order to move down the field. It worked decently, but it made the offense predictable. 

If they can open up their deep game a bit, this unit gets a lot more dangerous. Weapons like Earl Bennett and Devin Hester give Chicago all sorts of vertical capability.

Depth at Running Back

The Roy Williams acquisition got more attention, but I thought the Bears’ deal with another ex-Cowboy, Marion Barber, was the more important pick-up. Matt Forte has established himself as a top-tier rusher, but the NFL is a two-back league now, and Chester Taylor’s touches hurt the offense last year (finished dead last in yards per attempt among the 68 backs with 50 or more attempts). 

Taylor never developed into the prime third-down back the Bears expected when they signed the ex-Viking in 2009. It was no surprise when Chicago parted ways with the veteran during final cuts this preseason. 

A rejuvenated Barber steps into Taylor’s role and brings with him great potential for improvement. Barber is a hard runner who can continue to punish defenses when Forte needs a blow. So far in the preseason he’s shown some of the hard running that made him a star in Dallas. 

It’s just preseason, but any sort of upgrade at the second running back position will help this offense establish long drives and score points.

If Barber’s current calf ailment isn’t a major deal—and word indicates it isn’t—I expect a big year out of him.

A Division in Flux

The Packers are clearly an elite squad, but after them the NFC North picture gets murky. 

The Vikings appear rudderless, and bullish expectations for the Detroit Lions rest mostly on the assumption that quarterback Matthew Stafford will both improve and stay healthy for the first time in his career. 

The Bears have more proven talent than either of those teams and they should keep the Lions at bay another year. In a division without an obvious hierarchy, the Bears can easily see a way to the top two. And if you’re in the top two, you’re in the playoff picture. 

The Bears will stay in that picture all year, and, eventually, punch their second consecutive ticket to the NFL’s big dance.