Novak Djokovic: Is He Really the Hard-and-Fast US Open 2011 Favorite?

A sport, and the world in general, is run on a simple principle. It is that of contrasts, of oppositions, of primal conflict—violent or nay. Tennis predictions run on much the same principle. In their case, they are the battle between instinct and reason, passion and carefully conceived thought.

We have seen it so many times, but perhaps in 2011, the former for the moment seems to be having the upper hand. The US Open 2011, for many, has been so far run the way it should have: with Novak Djokovic trouncing his opposition, as he has 60 out of 62 times already this year.

Along with this are the very natural tagging on of championship favouritism. It is almost inconceivable that Djokovic might not win this tournament. The partisans of short sight, in favour of fulfilling the pleasures of the moment, would be well pleased. Could anyone have possibly imagined a less dominant first three rounds at a Grand Slam tournament?

Only three games lost and before the third round. Mind you, his third-round contest against Nikolay Davydenko—who ought to really have been the toughest test he was seeded to get before the semifinals—wasn't much of a match for the most part.

Admittedly, his rivals haven't really proposed too many aggressive statements of intent in their matches. Rather, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray have been playing as if under the insidious and oppressive cloud of a new regime.

Federer struggled for some parts against Marin Cilic, and while his victory over Dudi Sela in the round before had been marvellous, it was to pale in comparison with Djokovic's even more remarkable 6-0, 6-0, 6-2 win over Carlos Berlocq that evening. It's no good sign for Federer that even his master classes are no longer absolutely surpassing.

Nadal, too, has been struggling and has earned a rare bit of YouTube fame just in the last few hours for all the wrong reasons. His knees are playing up again, and it all seems a bit of 2009 deja-vu at the moment. He hasn't lost a set yet, but the defending champion is certainly vulnerable in the physical sense, at least.

Andy Murray also hasn't been too convincing, and nearly losing to (the admittedly big-serving and highly-talented) Robin Haase would not have been too promising for US Open hopes.

But the significant issue is that all three other contenders are progressing, and as Federer himself indicated in his presser, the most important thing is progress—whatever the cost may have been—through the draw. Winning impels tennis players in so many intangible, and for us observers, inscrutable ways. For 15 years, typically, it will be a lifeline for any tennis player.

It's probably too bad for them that Djokovic doesn't just have it as an instinct in him at the moment—it is the very air that he breathes. Thus are the world No. 1's.

As incontrovertible as his eventual victory seems, however, certain unchangeable facts will remain so, at least, until next Sunday exist. For one, Djokovic is a two-time losing finalist at the Open. On the first outing, he squandered some six set points, and on the other, just couldn't find a way past the human wall that is Nadal. Could there be doubts in his mind? There would at least be memories.

Djokovic, moreover, is 1-3 against Federer, and 0-1 against Nadal at Flushing Meadows, while he lost his most recent meeting with Murray on a similar surface at the Cincinnati Masters (in mitigating circumstances, however). His one victory over Federer in 2010 was hardly entirely convincing, as hard-fought as it may have been. Federer did have two match points in the fifth.

Finally, is the fact that no one will ever be able to look past Federer or Nadal at a Grand Slam, Novak Djokovic's 2011 or not. Legends will always be legends.

Djokovic, for all his dominance, hasn't yet comprehensively surpassed his close rivals in the way Federer did in 2004 and 2005. They are all still very pertinent threats—which is why indeed Djokovic's seemingly adamantine stranglehold over US Open favouritism may well find itself hard-pressed in the days to come.