Saints vs. Packers: New Orleans' Offensive Game Plan for Thursday Night's Opener

The regular season is finally upon us! Thursday night the Saints and Packers will line up across from each other in a real football game—a game that matters.

Of course there will be tons of hoopla. And I do not want to dismiss that aspect of this game. But I want to point out the more schematic elements related to the Saints' success—or possibility of it.

Today I am dealing with the more interesting and dynamic matchup between Sean Payton and Dom Capers' units—the Saints offense and the Packers defense.

As with any game plan, there are multiple elements. I want to highlight the game plan in three main elements—base offense (first and second down), nickel (third down) and red zone—but not before outlining a basic scouting report of the opponents' defense—this week the Packers.

Green Bay's Dynamic Defense

Green Bay didn't win the Super Bowl only with a wonderful offense. They also had one of the finest defenses in all of football a season ago.

What makes them so fine is that they have blue-chip players at all three levels of the unit. B.J. Raji has quickly developed into one of the best nose tackles in football, while Clay Matthews is a fierce pass rusher and run defender. Charles Woodson is 'ole Mr. Reliable in the secondary.

But it is all put together by the old school chalkboard and clipboard Dom Capers, their defensive coordinator.

Capers has always run a 3-4 scheme, though the scheme he is now employing in Green Bay is slightly different from the versions he previously ran. It is similar in that Raji as the nose tackle is not asked to simply plug the middle, but is allowed to rush the passer with his strength and athleticism. In that sense, Capers' version of the 3-4 is different from say the Steelers—who use the three defensive linemen as decoys, or space eaters.

Capers has become more versatile though, as he now plays primarily nickel packages to keep up with primarily nickel offenses (three or more receivers). For Green Bay, this means generally switching a defensive lineman out for a nickel corner. This puts the Packers in a 2-4-5 alignment.

Capers is fine doing this for two reasons. First, he still has the element of surprise in place as to who will be blitzing, and second, it allows him to play a lot of coverage—up to eight guys giving him a huge numbers advantage against four or five receivers.

But Capers is not afraid to rush only three guys when in the 3-4 alignment, because his defensive linemen—especially Raji—are capable of getting pressure on the QB. Obviously having three linemen in the game gives the Packers better leverage against the run, so this still remains their preference.

But if Green Bay gets in the lead they become dangerous because they will play the nickel defense, and that allows them to play their best players and actually be the most creative and diverse in their schemes.

Base Offense (1st and 2nd Down)

Though the Packers are not afraid to play their nickel defense on the majority of snaps, they will likely start the game—and most series—in the 3-4 setup. Therefore, I expect Sean Payton to try to spread the field on first down. If I were Payton, I would come out in four receiver sets. This will spread the field, and cause the Packers to expect pass.

From these spread sets, look for a lot of screens, draws and quick-hitting runs from the tailback. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles are both very effective with these types of runs.

Spreading the field will also enable the Saints to have more success throwing the ball over the middle to Lance Moore and Marques Colston. I say this because I would line up tight end Jimmy Graham out wide, forcing Charles Woodson to cover him up the sideline, leaving safeties and linebackers to cover the Saints' best inside receivers.

After a few series of effectively throwing the ball to the inside on base downs, the Packers will then likely go exclusively to the nickel package, allowing the Saints to run the football against two down linemen.

And once Sean Payton has identified Capers going to his nickel package on base downs, Payton can also start using base offensive packages which are "21" (two running backs and a tight end), "12" (one back and two tight ends) and "22" (two backs and two tight ends). This will enable the Saints a huge advantage in the running game as they will have David Thomas and Korey Hall going against defensive backs.

Overall, first and second down are of great importance against Green Bay because of their ability to create pressure and thus turnovers when offenses are in third and long.

Nickel (Third Down)

I feel that the Saints are going to have to kind of work backwards offensively in this game—kind of like the pitcher who instead of throwing fastball first pitch against a fastball-craving lineup will throw breaking balls for strike one. For the Saints that means they're going to want to throw on early downs, often from spread sets, but also run from many of those same spread sets.

That will give them an opportunity to get into third-and-short situations, whereby they can run the football. But third-and-short will allow the Packers the opportunity to play their base defense. If true, I would counter that again with a lot of the base offensive packages—especially two tight ends. I would line up in one of my favorite formations—two tight ends to the left and two stacked receivers to the right. From that I would run a lot of play-action.

Good play-action routes would be the deep post for Robert Meachem, the crossing route for either Thomas or Graham and the chip-to-flat for the wing tight end.

Then I would make sure in these third and shorts to get Mark Ingram a number of carries running off right guard on trap plays. The rotating fullbacks—I'm assuming Thomas will still get reps at that spot—will be key on third down. Thomas is going to be key in protecting Brees on third down—especially if the Saints are in long-yardage situations.

Because the Packers like to play a lot of press man-to-man coverage, I would stack a lot of receivers helping create confusion amongst the corners, and often creating natural separation for the pass-catchers. This will cause the Saints to be able to complete some quick throws inside, and then to the outside on wheel routes and stop fades.

Finally, the screen game to the backs is going to be huge, in both eliminating pressure and (because of the pressure) getting the ball to the outside with room to run. While I normally wouldn't expect Darren Sproles to play a huge role in the New Orleans' offense, it's hard to imagine him not in this game, in large part because of the frequency that Green Bay will play its nickel package.

Red Zone

It may seem a little obvious to say that Marques Colston will have a large role in the red zone. After all, Colston and Brees have hooked up nearly 50 times for touchdowns in five seasons. But against this Green Bay defense, Colston will get a favorable matchup in the red zone as long as the Saints remain in their base package. 

If so, Woodson will likely remain assigned to Graham, though it's completely possible he could draw Colston as well. If he does, that means Graham will have a huge mismatch—one that Drew Brees is almost sure not to miss. Either way the Green Bay defense is more susceptible to being beat on the outside in the red zone, thus the back-shoulder passes to Colston and Graham seem to be the money throws in this game.

Running the football will be more difficult against a unit that will essentially become a 4-4-3 with Charles Woodson as a safety. They will pretty much load up to stop the run, thus allowing for some good play-action opportunities in the red zone to Jimmy Graham, David Thomas, x fullback/running back or perhaps even to Lance Moore or Colston on that quick-hit play-action Deep Slant concept the Saints run so successfully from about seven to 10 yards out.

That being said, the run game may be possible against this slanting front line out of two tight end sets. Payton must run to the side of the two tight ends and have them seal off the slanting linemen, allowing the back to get to the outside off tackle. That seems to be the primary run play that will have success  close to the goal-line.

Conclusion

Sean Payton may not want to admit it, but he will have a huge impact on the game Thursday night—both as a play caller and as a head coach. In both roles he needs to be a calming influence who exudes patience.

Green Bay has holes that with patience can be ripped open both via the pass and the run. It is Payton's job to make adjustments and put his players in a position where they can be most successful (really the definition of a coach in general).

Many people want to call this a chess match—and to some degree they are justified in qualifying it that way. But more so, it is an offense that is well set up to have success against this style of defense—if it executes.

Getting rhythm early by running a number of quick snaps will help, as would simply scoring early. Anything to take the crowd out of the game, and/or slow down the pressure.

But even if those things do not happen the Saints offense must remain focused, knowing that patience will be the key to winning this game—not a couple of quick strikes. Holding the ball, moving it and scoring will keep the other offense off the field and out of rhythm, making a victory much more likely.