Betting Guide to the 2011 U.S. Open: What Player Odds Offers the Most Value

Now that most of the pretenders have been weeded out of the U.S. Open and the Labor Day weekend is upon us, it seems like a proper time to take a look at the betting odds for the U.S. Open.

The Favorite

Novak Djokovic (1:1)—Djokovic is currently the best player in the world (no argument here), but even money is ridiculous. First, he has never won the U.S. Open. Also,  he has lost to both Federer and Nadal in U.S. Open Finals. Because he plays with such emotion, he is always one bad line call away from exploding and giving away a set and when the margin is this slim, giving away a set can be the difference in advancing and going home. I would definitely list Djokovic as the favorite, but at evens there is no way I am putting any of my semi-hard earned money on him this week.

The Contenders

Andy Murray (4:1)/Rafael Nadal (4:1)/Roger Federer (5:1)—The second tier of contenders features some much more favorable prices, but the one that stands out to me is Federer. He is a 5-time U.S. Open champion and has beaten both Djokovic and Murray in the Finals of this very tournament. Plus at 5:1 verse 4:1, you are getting 25 percent more value from him than from Nadal and Murray, and even the smartest tennis expert can’t convince me he’s not even money in a match against either of them. The only disadvantage to betting Federer is if/when he plays Djokovic, it will be in the semi-final and not the final. I think that allows Djokovic to be more relaxed and Federer’s experience becomes much less of a factor.

Between Nadal and Murray, I’d rather bet on Murray. He has had more success on hard court (relatively speaking) and Nadal’s knees could spontaneously combust into dust at any moment. Still, out of the contenders the pick has to be Roger Federer. If nothing else you can rest on the fact that you went down swinging by betting on the greatest tennis player of all time.

The Dark Horses

At 66:1, John Isner is a very intriguing play because he can control the game against any player in the world with his serve. It takes at least a set to fully adjust to his 6’9 frame pounding 140 mph serves at you with no remorse. At this point in the tournament, any player with a 1-0 set lead can beat anyone in the world. Plus, if he were somehow to end up in the final, which happens to be on the 10 th anniversary of September 11 th, the American crowd would be so incredibly supportive it may overwhelm his opponent (unless it’s Federer).

Speaking of Americans feeding off the beauty of the American spirit, what about some love for Andy Roddick at 50:1? He has won this tournament before, has a dominant serve and for a 21 seed, has a fairly easy draw. He next match is verse an unranked Frenchmen, followed by David Ferrer (most likely) who is No. 5 in the world but is very beatable and then Nadal. If you had to face one of the "Big 4" at the U.S. Open, Nadal is the one you would want to face. Again, if he were to sneak into the Final the outpouring of patriotic support would be so tremendous that it could carry him to victory.

I’m not telling you Roddick is going to win the U.S. Open, I’m just saying that at 50:1 why wouldn’t you throw down $10 on him along with your bet on Federer? This seems like the perfect tournament for him to strike lightning in a bottle and give us an excuse to show racy photos of Brooklyn Decker.