2012 NFL Draft: 11 Prospects Everyone Will Salivate Over, but Shouldn't

While I hesitate to use the word "overrated," there are several players being mentioned among the top players in the talent-rich 2012 draft that aren't likely to live up to the lofty expectations placed on players drafted in the first two rounds.

It is still a bit early, and I readily admit I have a lot of footage left to review.  There is also an entire season ahead of these young men to refine their craft and hone their skills.  

However, the following list provides some things to keep in mind during the upcoming college season when projecting what players might be the perfect fit for a fan's favorite team.

A few of the following players did make my initial two-round mock draft, but that is based more on other projections.

Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State

Yes, I know.  Terrelle Pryor has already entered the NFL.  However, the Raiders did give up a much needed draft pick in 2012 for him, so a bit of creative licensing is being taken.

Pryor has immense athleticism and a lot of talent.  However, that doesn't always translate into success in the NFL.  He is on the forefront of a new style of NFL quarterback, but there is no guarantee the mobile passer is going to catch on, particularly when accuracy isn't a close friend.

Cyrus Gray, RB, Texas A&M

Cyrus Gray put together a great season last year.  Coinciding with Ryan Tannehill taking over at quarterback, Gray began receiving the bulk of the carries and put together seven consecutive games with 100 yards rushing.

Gray rushed for a season-high 223 yards the final week of the Big 12 against Texas.  These performances have shot him up draft boards.

Gray is a talented runner with good speed and is a good receiver out of the backfield.  He is also solid with picking up pass rushers.  

With all these accolades, how can Gray miss in the NFL?

At this point, Gray doesn't look the role of a primary back in the NFL.  His size and speed were both a little suspect last season and would be lacking in the NFL.  

Gray could be a solid complementary back and be heavily used on third down.  However, current billing as a late first-, early second-round pick is a bit inflated, as there are several other running backs that stand out more than Gray.

All that said, I won't be surprised if I have to eat these words in four months.  There have been reports that Gray added 10 pounds during the offseason and improved his 40 time.  If those are true he could turn the corner on the top backs in this draft.

Devin Taylor, DE, South Carolina (Jr.)

What's not to like about Devin Taylor?  He is a fast edge rusher with great athleticism for a defensive end.

The problem with Taylor, though, is he currently lacks the size to play end in most systems.  He could possibly convert to a rush linebacker in the right 3-4 system, but converting from a 4-3 end in college to a 3-4 linebacker isn't a guarantee, and a 4.76 40 time won't turn a lot of heads in the first round.

My biggest issue with Taylor isn't his size, though.  An elite collegiate talent should fire off the ball, and he just doesn't.  While by design in certain stunts, Taylor routinely comes off the snap slowly.  

In the NFL, offensive tackles will be able to get in and under his pads, controlling him at the line of scrimmage.  

Taylor might be best suited to wait for the 2013 NFL Draft.

Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

Andre Branch is another player that will need to find a home in the right system.  He is 260 pounds with a projected 40 time of 4.77 seconds.

While there are defensive ends in the NFL that have similar statistics, Branch's football speed looks materially slower.  He doesn't move well off the snap of the ball and was often manhandled in rush defense.

Branch's stats were somewhat inflated last season as a result of working opposite Da'Quan Bowers.  

Many draft boards have Branch as a first-round talent, but scouts should pay close attention to see how he fares this season.

Billy Winn, DT, Boise State

At 6'3" and 295 pounds, Billy Winn would have great size as a defensive end, as many sites list him.  However, he typically lines up at defensive tackle and lacks the speed to play end in the NFL.

Boise State fans will be upset to see Winn's name here, as he is a solid defensive tackle.  He made some great plays in 2010, and will certainly do the same this season.  

However, he is not a first-round talent and shouldn't be receiving second-round consideration.  This draft is simply too deep, and Winn can disappear in rush defense at times.

Kheeston Randall, DT, Texas

Kheeston Randall is a quality defensive tackle.  The problem is some draft analysts are talking about him being a first-round draft talent.  

Randall had the advantage of playing alongside Sam Acho last season.  He still struggled one-on-one with opposing offensive guards, though, and needs to show he can impose his will on an opposing offense.

Randall could grow this season, but as of now he looks to be a third-round talent.

Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers (Jr.)

I've gone back and forth with Mohamed Sanu's positioning for the 2012 draft.  In a moment of weakness I've even placed him as a day one prospect, as it is fun to pull for small-school athletes.

At this point, though, Sanu had a very good freshman season against lesser talent.  He wasn't able to build on that performance as a sophomore, though.

Sanu is entering his junior year and has a lot to prove relative to his ability to make the big step up to the NFL.  Shy of a record-breaking year, Sanu would be best-served returning for his senior year to demonstrate he can produce consistently.

Travis Lewis, LB, Oklahoma

Travis Lewis gained a lot of recognition his freshman season.  He had four interceptions and 144 tackles, 12 for loss.  Big things were expected of him.

Attitude issues followed Lewis, though, and he wasn't able to put up the same production after Gerald McCoy moved on to the NFL.  He is also undersized at 6'2" and 233 pounds.

Lewis was being discussed as a possible first-round talent for the 2011 draft at this time last season, but his production just wasn't there.  Expect more of the same this season, but he won't have the luxury of returning to college next year.  Lewis could be available on day three.

Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Dre Kirkpatrick has the height (6'3") that will get the attention of NFL coaches, but he is less than 200 pounds.  He struggles with press coverage and can be overmatched and bowled over by stronger receivers. 

Kirkpatrick is better in zone coverage, but I've noticed he will release receivers off the line too early.  At times it pays off, as one of his interceptions came after releasing his receiver and closing on a drag route.  At other times, though, it left his man prematurely open on an medium out route.

The 2012 draft is heavy with cornerback talent.  Kirkpatrick has the skills to attract attention, but his draft status will likely improve if he returns to Alabama for his senior year in 2012.  He needs to continue to add strength and work on his press skills.

Kirkpatrick also needs to demonstrate that his recurrent shoulder issue won't cause problems in the NFL.

Ray-Ray Armstrong, S, Miami

Ray-Ray Armstrong is a big safety at 6'4" and 215 pounds.  He can be effective in run support at the line of scrimmage, but struggles in the open field.  He surrendered several touchdowns last season when he failed to stop a running back coming through the middle of the line.

Armstrong also struggles with coverage skills.  Time and again he bit on play action, allowing the receiver he was to be covering to slip by him.

Armstrong is being called a second-round talent, but I see more Taylor Mays than Bob Sanders.

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford (Jr.)

Less than a year ago all the talk was about Andrew Luck being the grand prize for the worst team in football.  Surprise—Luck opted to return to finish his engineering degree.

Luck is being called perhaps the best quarterback prospect to ever enter the NFL, and Matt Miller, Bleacher Reports Lead NFL Draft writer, has ranked Luck ahead of Peyton Manning as a collegiate prospect.

The 2011 season has been all about "suck for Luck."  Some teams have even been accused of purposely not adding talent to allow them to get the prize next April.

However, all this hype could all be for not.  I currently show the Cincinnati Bengals ending the season with the worst record and having the top pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.  

Should this happen, look for Luck to pull another inverse Favre and go back to Stanford for his senior season.  I'd imagine he could finish a two-year master's program in a year, even at the West Coast's best university. 

If Luck does come out, the teams that are likely to be sitting atop the draft will have so many holes that Luck will likely waffle in mediocrity for several years anyway.