2011 Buffalo Bills Season Preview

The Buffalo Bills defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars in overtime 35-32 at Ralph Wilson Stadium last Saturday.

It was their first win of the preseason in their new home uniforms as well as their first while playing on the new home field surface. There are some new faces on the 2011 Buffalo Bills team, and many old ones as well.

The results so far in 2011 have either been encouraging (Jacksonville) or disturbing (Denver), and given the strange backdrop of limited coaching and shorter practice time due to the new CBA, the results should not be all that surprising.

We will address the 2011 Bills team by analyzing what appear to be the strengths and weaknesses of the team as they head in to their second season under head coach Chan Gailey.

How Will the Offense Fare in 2011?

The Buffalo Bills offense in 2011 is probably going to be a mixed bag.

On one hand, you have a quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who has a gunslinger mentality and is not afraid to either throw his body around as a blocker or to throw the ball up and let his receivers make a play for it. The fans love Fitzpatrick's style, work ethic and passion, but the results are sometimes disturbing when he commits key turnovers in close games.

As many close games as the Bills are involved in (they seldom were blown out under Chan Gailey in 2010), those key turnovers at crucial times can be the difference between winning and losing. With this in mind, the option of inserting either Brad Smith or Tyler Thigpen at quarterback is something to keep in mind.

After the Bills released Trent Edwards in 2010, the job was Fitzpatrick's for the rest of the year. The level of play between Brian Brohm and Levi Brown is night and day compared to the new backups in Thigpen and Smith. Fitzpatrick knows that he will have to stay on top of his game, so this could be his best year in Buffalo as a result.

The reason I said "could be" in the previous sentence depends on some factors that Fitzpatrick will not be able to directly control.

One factor is the offensive line play, the second is the health of the young wide receiver corps and the third is running back C.J. Spiller. At this point, you have a pretty good idea of the solid level of play you are getting from Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson. Everything else after that is a mystery.

Who steps up to replace Lee Evans?

Will it be Donald Jones or Marcus Easley? What if neither one does and Steve Johnson's game suffers as a result? Will the Bills be willing to bring in a player like Terrell Owens again to jumpstart the offense? Can the offensive line hold up for Fitz? Will Spiller grow in his second year?

Let's address these questions on the next slide.

Answering Questions About Bill's Offense

The Bills have already demonstrated that they are willing to use Brad Smith in a number of different ways. Smith will be causing matchup nightmares for opposing head coaches all season.

The Bills will be harder to defend on short third-down conversions this year because Smith can either run or pass. His ability to find a hole and exploit it quickly will lead to the Bills' ability to sustain a greater percentage of drives this year. The longer the offense is on the field, the better rested the Bills' defense will be, as well.

C.J. Spiller has shown some flashes of more confident running already this preseason. That is a positive. The Bills have lined him up as a wide receiver, and that is something I would like to see more of. I also want to see the Bills actually throw it to him more on the outside rather than line him up as a decoy.

You might recall the touchdown he scored against the Patriots as a rookie, when he was split out wide. Despite the early success, the Bills never really went back to Spiller again like that for the rest of the year.

Spiller also showed that there are still some holes in his game. He completely failed in his blocking assignment on a play at Denver, and Fitzpatrick paid the price for it. He also turned a great screen pass play in Denver into a meaningless three-yard flop because he couldn't figure out how to use his blockers.

The offensive line might not be making any more personnel changes unless they are forced to because of injuries. On the surface that is a scary proposition, because we all witnessed how bad the blocking was in Denver. That same group didn't allow a single sack against Jacksonville, but then again, the Jaguars are the only NFL team without a sack in the preseason, so I'm not sure how much praise comes from the improved effort.

The fact that Gailey is willing to rotate guys in and take starters' jobs away from them is hopefully all the motivation the line will need to be sharp and focused in their play.

Many people were hoping to see a step up in Demetrius Bell this year, but the Denver game showed that he can still be pretty bad. The fact remains that Ryan Fitzpatrick will need to be ready for anything on every play this year. Also, the fact that the Bills have adequate backups that they can insert when needed provides some degree of comfort.

Wide Receivers: A Strength or a Weakness?

Coming in to the second week of preseason, the Bills organization believed that the wide receiver corps was a definite area of strength. Flying back home from Denver, the team must have been privately wondering if they have enough players to finish out the season.

The Denver game was a disaster, right on the heels of trading Lee Evans away to the Baltimore Ravens. If the Bills thought they had a surplus, it looked overnight that it was anything but.

Naaman Roosevelt and Donald Jones were thought to be gone for the rest of the preseason. Jones did return to practice this week, but he has not yet been cleared to play this week against the Detroit Lions.

Marcus Easley stepped up to have a positive game at home with the starters against Jacksonville. That had to be a big boost to his confidence. As for how much he can contribute in 2011, the sky is the limit. He could very well be in a position to have a breakout year, much in the same way that Steve Johnson emerged from obscurity with a monster 2010 campaign.

David Nelson has basically been the forgotten man in 2011. He has received few targets so far this year, and nobody is talking about why that is the case.

Roscoe Parrish has been missing in action due to a hamstring, but if he can come back to health and repeat his 2010 season, the Bills can still have a dynamic passing game with multiple weapons.

It remains to be seen if a drastic measure like signing Terrell Owens is needed. That would have to be the result of multiple injuries that knock out some of the Bills current depth at the position.

Will C.J. Spiller Emerge in 2011?

C.J. Spiller appears to have more passion this year, and that was evident in the Denver Broncos game after his helmet was ripped off during a run. Spiller has yet to break a long play from scrimmage, with the lone exception of a kickoff return against the Patriots way back in week two of 2010.

As long as Chan Gailey remains firm in his conviction to get the ball in Spiller's hands for roughly 15 touches a game, the likelihood that Spiller will break off a long play increases. It is a case of playing the numbers; the more opportunities, the greater the probability that he will make something happen.

At this juncture, there is still a big learning curve for Spiller as he tries to understand what defenses are doing and to appreciate the timing and limitations of every play that is called.

The more he tries to figure out what moves are needed so that he can break out in the clear, the more he will be frustrated at his lack of progress. He needs to let the game slow down and let his natural instincts take over. That happens on occasion, but not often enough yet.

If Spiller can emerge in 2011 as the home run threat that the Bills believed that he could become, the Bills offense can then take on a whole new dimension and be a threat to score from anywhere on the field.

Bills Defense: The New and Improved Front Seven

With the addition of a few new key pieces, the Buffalo Bills' front seven now is able to take on an entirely different look in 2011.

The defensive line is obviously bolstered by the incredible strength of Marcell Dareus. Lining up next to Kyle Williams, the duo are able to occupy multiple blockers while also pushing the linemen back into the backfield. Caving in the pocket and freeing up paths for the linebackers will do wonders for the ultimate bottom line of the Bills' defensive rankings in 2011.

If you have not yet heard the interview with NFL veteran linebacker Kirk Morrison in which he talks about signing with the Bills during the past week, you should try to listen. Here's a link to the interview that aired on BuffaloBills.com.

What was interesting to me was not only the recruiting powers of Shawne Merriman, but the detail that Morrison went into to describe the concept of playing clean behind Williams and Dareus. This is an entirely new defense for Bills fans to witness, and something that could be very entertaining in 2011.

The main result should be a much-improved run defense. The development of 2010 rookies Torell Troup and Alex Carrington can't be stressed enough, as both players look to take on a more significant role in the defense. Spencer Johnson has also been playing some of his best football lately.

Dwan Edwards looks to be solid, and Kellen Heard has been making a name for himself in preseason games. Michael Jasper at this point is more folklore than he is pure talent, and he will need to spend some time on the practice squad to be coached properly.

Then we come to the linebackers. There are so many of them that they deserve their own slide, so on we go.

Linebackers Have Plenty of Depth

The Bills linebackers have as much depth now as any unit on the team. In fact, they are on the verge of having too much depth, because some talented players are going to need to be placed on waivers as the team gets down to the final 53-man roster.

The Bills' depth includes: Shawne Merriman, Chris Kelsay, Andra Davis, Nick Barnett, Kirk Morrison, Antonio Coleman, Arthur Moats, Danny Batten and rookies Kelvin Sheppard and Chris White.

Reggie Torbor was placed on Injured Reserve last week, and we could also include Alex Carrington in the LB's group, as he is actually taking snaps as a linebacker in certain situations.

Carrying 10 linebackers on the surface seems like a lot. When you consider how badly that position has been banged-up in the past, it is necessary to have strong depth. Just from the current group, Merriman, Davis, Barnett and Batten know what it is like to be placed on IR, and in summer camp, the two rookies have missed more practices than they have made.

But going back to the Morrison interview, this group will be allowed to play clean behind the Bills improved defensive line. That means that they should have a free and clear path to the ball carrier (at least compared to what they had in 2010).

They are getting more comfortable in understanding their roles in their second year in George Edwards' defense. Inside linebackers coach Dave Wannstedt brings solid knowledge to the group as well.

If any of the starters go down, there are some clear hungry backups ready to strap on the helmet and go to war. This group will be expected to make plays, ranging from sacks, forcing fumbles, coming up with tackles for losses and some interceptions as well.

The linebackers will be as responsible for creating "three-and-out drives" as any unit on the team. Right now it looks like they are up to the challenge.

Defensive Secondary

The Bills have good depth in the secondary this year as well.

Bringing back Drayton Florence was a smart move, and rookies Aaron Williams and Da'Norris Searcy also offer up some hope that the secondary unit will be improving.

The Bills have enough talent to bring out a veteran group for nickel and dime packages. From Terrence McGee, Florence, Leodis McKelvin and Reggie Corner, the depth is solid. This allows the Bills to work in Aaron Williams, and possibly Justin Rogers as the season goes along, since they had so little coaching so far as rookies.

From the safety position, the Bills do not appear to be losing a beat when Donte Whitner left for the San Francisco 49ers. Jairus Byrd and George Wilson will be asked to make some plays and come up with interceptions as a result of a better pass rush. Bryan Scott, Jon Corto and Da'Norris Searcy are ready to come in when needed.

Roster Bubble

As the Bills edge closer to their final preseason game against the Detroit Lions this Thursday (which has been blacked out), the final round of roster cuts to get down to 53 players is due this Saturday at 6:00 pm.

The Bills have some tough roster decisions to make. Of course, if any key players go down to injury over the next four days, that will change the future of some of the others.

The way I see it, there is a "bubble" of roughly 11 players from whom could make an argument why they should be kept, as well as an argument for why they should be gone. Half of these 11 will make up the final five roster spots.

The 11 on the bubble for me are (in no particular order): Kellen Heard, Geoff Hangartner, Ed Wang, Cordaro Howard, Mansfield Wrotto, Justin Rogers, Antonio Coleman, Chris White, Mike Caussin, Shawn Nelson and Jon Corto.

The players who I see being cut are: Levi Brown, Josh Nesbitt, Bruce Hall, Jehuu Caulcrick, Kamar Aiken, Craig Davis, Ruvell Martin, Felton Huggins, Zack Pianalto, Michael Switzer, Colin Brown, Jason Watkins, T.J. Langley, Lionel Dotson, Michael Jasper, Robert Eddins, Brandon Hicks, Jammie Kirlew, Doyle Miller, Sidney Glover, Chris Hazley and Danny Aiken.

The Bills will probably be looking to fill their practice squad primarily from the above group, as well as the guys who are still eligible from the bubble group.

Season Prediction

As bad as the Bills looked against Denver, they looked like a completely different team against Jacksonville. That serves as a reminder that the Bills are capable of both putting up some great games as well as clunkers. That is one of the things that happens with young teams.

I keep reminding myself that the Jacksonville game needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The Jaguars played without Maurice Jones-Drew and Aaron Kampman. Still, the Bills moved the ball very well, Fitzpatrick had a perfect game from a quarterback Passer Rating perspective, and the line blocked much better.

The other thing that is unknown is the prospect of a waiver wire scenario where a lineman becomes available who would immediately upgrade the offensive line. It is not out of the question that this could occur.

The Bills are facing the second hardest schedule in the NFL in 2011. That alone means that there will be very few "gimmies," and the Bills will have to play like a winning team most weeks if they want to actually become one.

With a better run defense and an improved pass rush that should result in more interceptions, the defense should be fresher throughout the year. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be in his second year with the offense and should improve.

The wild cards are Brad Smith and C.J. Spiller. If they can excel in Chan Gailey's offense this year, the Bills could actually become a .500 team in 2011.

What I don't know is how well the offensive line will play, and how long Shawne Merriman will hold up. Based on all the information available to me today, I am going to predict a 7-9 finish for 2011.

The Bills are making progress, but the job is not nearly done yet.