Federer and the Top 4: Insider's Guide to Their US Open Round 1 Matches

To be fair, actually watching the matches below for competitive tennis is probably not in your best interest.

But you should keep an eye on these to know how the top 4 are doing during the first week of the U.S. Open. A week has passed since Cincinnati, and as burns healed and shoulders rested, we might find that a lot has changed.

The opponents likely won't provide much drama, so here is the guide to what the insiders will be watching. 

Novak Djokovic vs. Conor Niland

As we'd expect for the No. 1 player in the first round of a major tournament, the opponent is someone you've likely never heard of—even if you follow the ATP year-round. Conor Niland has a long career on the challenger and futures circuits, and it has few bright spots. 

The others in the Top 4 are at least facing players regularly tested on the ATP. Against Djokovic on the Serb's favorite surface, we'll be watching a real David versus Goliath match, and you might be wise just checking in on the score for this one.

But if you still decide to watch, focus on Djokovic's shoulder.

If it proves a lingering concern, he might be elect to utilize a more forward-moving, aggressive style of play to end points early.

Djokovic is a baseliner, but could use the early rounds to ramp up his mid-court and net play. He cannot afford to grind out wins. Also, check the speed on his serve. Djokovic usually has first serve speed average from 115 mph to 120 mph. If this is down around 110 mph, you'll know he's trying to save the shoulder for the second week of play.

Rafael Nadal vs. Andrey Golubev 

Don't let Golubev's 2011 win-loss record fool you. He's only 6-18, but that ghastly record is largely due to his terrible efforts on clay. He's clearly most comfortable on hard courts, so Flushing Meadows should suit him.

His only grand slam match win was in Australia last year, and solid post-US Open play at the tail end of 2010 vaulted him to a low 30's ranking.

Golubev has no major weapons to cause Nadal worry; but then, players do outside the ATP top four.

However, he must be thrilled to at least be facing Rafa on hard courts instead of clay, and might get some motivation from the atmosphere of a show court. Of all the first round matches among the top 4, this could be the most fun to watch.  

Be sure to observe Rafa, who may attempt to flatten out his shots and get some extra mph's on his serve.

This was the strategy he surprised everyone with at last year's Open, and it took him all the way to the championship. Nadal likes consistency, and it's unlikely he will be comfortable pulling out some new tricks in week two. With the easy draw he's facing, however, he'll have plenty of opportunities to experiment.  

Roger Federer vs. Santiago Giraldo

What do we know about Federer's Colombian competitor? We do know that he has won a couple first-round matches at Australia in the last two years, including a win against Tommy Robredo last year.

He's had a few impressive hard court victories this year against guys ranked around the middle of the top 100, which is where he is at too.

Overall, Giraldo is a solid player with a shot at taking down some of the lower seeds. Beating a top 10 player, much less Federer, is asking too much. Based on what I saw in Winstom-Salem, he likes to take big, flat cuts at the ball, but his movement is a weakness.

Federer should win in three sets, with maybe a close first set. Watch for the speed of Federer in getting to backhands that stretch him out wide, see how much he is willing to use slice against a big hitter, and watch his first serve percentage. It should be around 75 percent. Giraldo is a good warm-up for Federer after an up-and-down summer, especially considering the rest of his quarter.

Andy Murray vs. Somdev Devvarman

Devvarman is one of those middling players who is pretty good about beating the guys ranked below him (roughly 60s or lower), but has yet to consistently break through against top 50 players. Like all four of our first round opponents, he's thankfully best on hard courts.

Devvarman did play against Rafa earlier this year at Indian Wells, and if you caught that match then you know he had nothing in the arsenal to trouble Nadal and won't bug Murray either. Still, it was a good tournament for him and that match might help prep Devvarman mentally for playing against a big-time player. Hopefully he'll make it competitive, which would be good for Murray too.

What to really watch for is Murray's mindset. The pressure on him rose a little with the Cincinnati win and the perceived weaknesses in the Top 3 men, and he needs to keep the perfectionism in check right from the start. Murray really needs to cruise through a match like this.