Jim Thome Traded to Cleveland Indians: 10 Reasons They Still Can't Catch Detroit

Jim Thome accepted a trade to the Cleveland Indians Thursday, leaving the Minnesota Twins less than two weeks after hitting career home run No. 600 in that uniform. In doing so, he rejoins the team for which he hit 334 of those bombs and will try to push them past the Detroit Tigers and into the postseason.

It's a great story, but it's not going to happen. For a fistful of reasons, the Indians will not and cannot catch the Tigers over the final five weeks, and although Thome is an all-time MLB good guy, he will have to come back for a 22nd season in order to pursue his missing World Series ring. Here are 10 reasons Thome doesn't solve everything.

1. The Gap

The Tigers have 32 games yet to play. The Indians have 35 left on the schedule. In that stretch, the 6.5-game edge the Tigers have right now is hugely significant. Cleveland trails by only five in the loss column, but still, the deficit would be tough to overcome under any circumstances. Consider:

• If the Tigers go 16-16 from here, Cleveland needs to go 24-11.
• If Detroit goes 18-14, the Indians must go 26-9.
• If Detroit wins 20 of their last 32, Cleveland must go 28-7 down the stretch.

And all of that is just to force a one-game playoff. Obviously, Detroit could easily go 12-20, but even then, the Tribe must win 20 of 35 games to tie. Not an easy road to hoe.

2. Kipnis Is Hurt

Jason Kipnis should be back from the DL by September 1, and he cannot come too soon for Cleveland. Kipnis was tearing the ball to shreds with a .603 slugging average before hitting the shelf, and his bat energized the lineup in a big way. His defense at second base also didn't hurt, so the sooner he gets back, the better. But it may be too late for Cleveland, especially if their sometime top prospect is rushing back before fully ready.

3. Ubaldo Jimenez's Struggles

Look, Ubaldo Jimenez is a good pitcher. He's had a rough stretch and really a rough season, but his 7.29 ERA as an Indian is less indicative of his skills than his 22:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 innings. He'll pitch pretty well in three or four of his remaining starts.

But Jimenez doesn't have an on/off switch. He's not that kind of pitcher. He's not about to reel off 30 consecutive scoreless innings or rediscover the caliber of stuff that made him so dominant in the first half of 2010. Jimenez might well get that stuff back, but not until 2012. The good news: The Tribe have him under contract through 2013. The bad news: He's not going to be a game-changer in what still passes for a pennant race.

4. Grady Sizemore, Stuck on the Shelf

Grady Sizemore has been an asset in center field for the Indians when healthy this year. Of course, that "when healthy" is a dangerous qualifier in Sizemore's case, and indeed, he is currently on the DL for the third time this season. He hopes to begin a rehab assignment next weekend, but if he cannot, he might not be back at all in 2011. It's a mess, and what's worse, Cleveland's solution has been to plug Kosuke Fukudome into Sizemore's spot in center field. Fukudome's a futile player for his on-base skills, but hardly a true centerfield defender.

5. Travis Hafner Done for the Year?

Coincidentally, Hafner was the young slugger who made Cleveland feel it could part ways with Thome after 2002. It's a coincidence, because Hafner's foot injury has now opened the door for Thome's return. Pronk is out until at least the second week of September and might well not be back at all. Not only is the team without him, then, but they lose the luxury of giving Thome selected days off to stay fresh.

6. Doubleheader Death

Ask Shin-Soo Choo about playing doubleheaders. They're vicious, especially when a team needs to win both halves of them. Choo bashed a walkoff three-run homer in the first game of the Indians' twin-bill with the Mariners this week, but the Tribe lost the second contest and gained no ground. Given that the team absolutely must win 20 of their final 35 in order to stay afloat (at a bare minimum), they can hardly afford environments like the ones they will face September 20 and 24, when they play two games apiece against the White Sox and Twins.

7. Justin Verlander Pitches for the Other Guys

People usually talk about starting pitching as a critical component to playoff success, but they overlook the fact that one dominant ace can change a team even in the regular season, assuming a short window of important games.

Justin Verlander's starts have netted the Tigers a 20-8 record this season. In all other games, the team is 51-51. That's good news for the Indians if Verlander goes down, because it means Detroit is very vulnerable. But since Verlander has a rubber arm and is a fantastically durable pitcher, expect him to make seven more starts this season. The Tigers will probably go 5-2 or better in those games, meaning they would need to go just 11-14 in the other 25 contests to put severe pressure on the Indians.

8. It's Not That Jim Thome

Thome truly defied Father Time last year in Minnesota, bashing his way to a supernal 1.039 OPS. He's performed nicely this year, too, but his OPS has dropped (predictably) to .842. Thome is not the guy who slammed 52 home runs for the 2002 Tribe. He could help the team, but he won't turn the offense on its ear or anything.

9. Matt LaPorta Is the Starting First Baseman

Teams without slugging star first basemen make the playoffs sometimes. It happens. But usually it happens because those teams get big production fro other spots on the diamond. And that non-superstar first baseman is usually a veteran with a steady glove and a good clubhouse aura.

Matt LaPorta's a fine kid who's had some big hits this season. He could blossom into an above-average hitter and defender at first. He still has both time and tools, but he is not there yet; not by a long shot. If you're ranking baseball's starting first basemen, LaPorta probably sits somewhere in the bottom five. It's hard to overcome that without some other elite hitter in your lineup.

10. The White Sox Could Play Spoiler

The Indians lead the White Sox in the AL Central, but the White Sox are more talented, honestly. Adam Dunn's and Alex Rios' horrible seasons may never turn around, but the Sox claimed Jason Kubel (probably a better all-around player than Thome right now) on waivers. Meanwhile, they have a stronger starting rotation than Cleveland and some underrated talents in Alexei Ramirez and Sergio Santos. The Sox likely still believe in themselves and will view their eight games with Cleveland as chances to pass them up and gain on Detroit.