U.S. Open 2011: Men's Draw, The Final Weekend Breakdown

You've all been waiting for it, and now the U.S. Open draw is finally out.

We already know the potential semifinals.

Andy Murray against Rafael Nadal, in what would be their third semifinal in a row this year but first on hard courts since the 2008 U.S. Open (won by Murray). And Novak Djokovic against Roger Federer, who have split semifinals this year (at the Australian Open and Roland Garros) and who had a memorable, five-set semifinal bout in last year's U.S. Open.

The Andy/Rafa, Novak/Roger match-ups in the semifinals are familiar territory, but should still make for some excellent matches if the draw holds.   

Who is favored in those match-ups? Who might play spoiler and sneak into a semifinal spot?  

Here is your guide to the later-round scenarios for the top four players.

For more details on each quarter, check these links:

Novak Djokovic's quarter

Andy Murray's quarter

Rafael Nadal's quarter

Roger Federer's quarter

Novak Djokovic

Most likely path to championship:

Roger Federer, then Andy Murray. 

Toughest late round match:

The semifinal against Federer. This would be their fifth consecutive meeting in New York (one final in 2007 and the rest semifinals).

Novak won a tight five-setter last year, but they're basically even on hard courts the last two seasons.

Federer raises his game the most against Nole, so this could be a serious battle and another five setter. Roger is a tactician who would know how to really test Novak's shoulder, too.  

X-factor:

The shoulder soreness from Cincinnati could flare up, and that would be disastrous for a guy who loves hard hitting baseline rallies, takes the ball early, and needs impeccable timing. 

Andy Murray

Most likely path to championship:

Rafael Nadal, then Novak Djokovic.

Toughest late round match:

No matter who he faces, it would be the final. Murray is perfect in hard court Grand Slams once he passes the fourth round (USO 2008, AO 2010, AO 2011), but his three losses in the finals have to be playing with his mind.

Murray will be playing himself in that match as well as his opponent.  

X-factor:

Murray's ability to handle the pressure in the later stages, since this U.S. Open is nearly a must-win for him.

Roger Federer

Most likely path to championship:

Novak Djokovic, then Andy Murray

Toughest late round match: 

A final against Nadal. With so little playing history between the two on hard courts, it's hard to use their past to predict the future on that surface.

But Nadal is inside Federer's head and can still do damage with his lefty forehand against Roger's one handed backhand.

Of course, Federer would have a tough battle against Nole in the semifinals, but he has proven that he knows how to defeat him, even on hard courts.

Just last year he held match points against the Serb in New York, and then had three hard court wins against him in the rest of the season. 

X-factor:

Federer is the picture of health, so that's a non-issue for him. The trickiest part at his age would normally be playing semifinals and finals on Saturday and Sunday, but maybe his conditioning can still allow him to bounce back quickly enough.  

Rafael Nadal

Most likely path to championship:

Andy Murray, then Novak Djokovic 

Toughest late round match:

His semifinal against Murray, if Rafa gets that deep in the tournament.

While Rafa dominates the overall head-to-head, he only leads 5-4 on hard courts and has lost their last two Grand Slam hard court meetings.

Andy is most confident on hard courts and clipped Nadal in 2008 at the U.S. Open semifinals when Rafa was the top seed.

X-factor:

Will those burned fingers still be a niggling issue for Rafa? It's possible, and it might be enough to keep him from getting the extra pace he needs on his backhand, one of his more vulnerable shots against Murray and Djokovic especially. Still, be glad it's his right hand. 

The Hottest Player and Best American: Mardy Fish

Mardy Fish

The best player of the summer hard court lead-up events has proven the last two seasons that he can stay with the big four on hard courts and occasionally topple them.

He played Federer in a very close Cincinnati final in 2010, took a set off Djokovic in the Montreal final this year, handed Murray three losses last year and a close Cincinnati semifinal this year, and just beat Nadal in the quarterfinals in Cincinnati.

Clearly, Mardy loves hard courts. 

The problem is that Mardy is in Federer's quarter, and also would have to get through Verdasco, Tsonga, and other tough customers.

It's a difficult road, to say the least.

Semifinal and Final Picks

Semifinals match-ups:

I'm a big fan of Fish, and I think he has a good shot at playing spoiler this year.

But he'll have to go through Federer, and I think that's too tall an order for him even assuming he gets to the quarterfinals. 

Nadal, who has looked the most vulnerable in the lead-up events, lucked out having No. 5 Ferrer put into his quarter as the biggest threat and highest seed.

Because of that, I have to believe that the top 4 will get through to the finals and repeat their effort from Roland Garros.

I think Novak Djokovic will get by Federer in another close semifinal, robbing Roger of one of his better chances to add to his 16 Grand Slam total.

My finals prediction: 

Andy Murray faces Novak Djokovic and finally breaks through to his first victory. Djokovic's shoulder will become an issue on the final weekend, when back-to-back matches will finally take their toll.