Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal: Will the US Open 2011 Be a Watershed Moment?

The tennis world is constantly in change; the world is constantly in change. But greatness and grace lasts for longer, and perhaps for all time. For seven years up to now we had been graced by an era of tennis magnificence, as Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal pushed the limits of the game, playing with unparalleled elegance and effortlessness, and at the same time an insurmountable desire and determination for excellence.

Thus, it was one-man rule, then two-man rule. This year has turned out slightly differently. The long-time third, Novak Djokovic, has come to the fore, and compiled to date a win-loss record even Federer and Nadal would have dreamed of: 57-2. He will enter his first grand slam as the world No. 1 at the US Open, and, perhaps, for the first time neither Federer nor Nadal will be a clear favourite for the title.

If it is true that Federer and Nadal have dominated tennis for the last seven years, it is also true that it isn't as if they have won every grand slam. But few have come between them—Safin, Del Potro and Djokovic, now thrice. Nonetheless, it is memorable that one of the two has been, at least, a favourite at practically every slam dating all the way back to the Australian Open in 2004.

Last year, it was Federer who seemed to have the psychological upper hand, having won in Cincinnati, and as the defending finalist seemed poise to avenge his loss to Del Potro in the 2009 final. At the Australian Open this year he was a veritable favourite, having compiled terrific year end results, and seemingly in a class of his own—all until Djokovic stopped him in the semifinals.

At the French it was hard to bet against Nadal, for all the success Djokovic had had up to that point, and it proved too true, when he downed Federer in the final. There were doubts throughout, and even before, that tournament, but the faithful could still rely on the mirage of invincibility.

At Wimbledon, Federer's revival in form at the French seemed ready to lead him to a seventh title. Nadal was left slightly in the shadows, but as the defending champion, could well surprise everybody. Indeed, it was the latter that threatened to happen, when Federer fell to Tsonga in the quarters. Surely, and after he dismissed Andy Murray in four sets, there seemed little to stand in the way of a third title—not even the man of the moment, Novak Djokovic.

It is fair to say, however, that Djokovic's victory changed everything. It was not so much a changing of the guard as a supremely disorienting moment. Wimbledon was not ever supposed to have been this easy to win, and many expected Nadal to put up a brave fight. He did, but still found himself on the losing end of things. Here was the Spaniard, and king of tennis, dethroned. The Federer-Nadal dominance had come to a startling end on the turf it had thrived on, at Wimbledon.

Novak Djokovic's win at Montreal, and finalist showing at Cincinnati, have been but the ripples  the aftermath of a tsunami's passage. They have confirmed Djokovic's place at the head of tennis, and with Federer and Nadal's desultory exits a both events, something of a symbolic shift in power.

We ought not to place too much weight on what has happened in North American so far. Djokovic, yes, has revealed fatigue and mortality, but Nadal was in a similar state last year, and managed to pull himself together for New York. The truth is, of course, that it is the result at Wimbledon that will be most indicative of what might happen at the US Open. Over five sets it is not merely ability and skill, but class, that differentiates one from the other.

Djokovic should be the favourite at the US Open, and perhaps for the first time in many years Federer enters the tournament without the burden of favouritism. Many probably anticipate another Djokovic victory over Nadal in the final.

How Federer and Nadal go at the US Open this year may well say something about them, in a way it hasn't had to for some time. Will they halt the momentum of Djokovic, and rise above all, at the most critical and threatening point in their careers?