Fantasy Football 2011: Jamaal Charles and 5 Stars You Should Avoid Drafting

Every year, there's always that person in your fantasy league who overdrafts for a hyped name. You know who I'm talking about. If you don't, then that probably means you're that person.

If you are, don't worry. I'm here to help as much as I can.

I've written quite a few fantasy columns, and I often find myself preaching a method that has gotten me much success over the years. Drafting low-risk players is just as important as drafting high-reward ones, if not more so.

I say that now, because I'm going to address a few star players that have done wonders in fantasy football over the years. This year, however, is a completely different story for some players, regardless of their talent or hype. They still could produce much, but pose a much bigger risk than I'm willing to take on.

Let's examine a few of those interesting situations while I present five-star players you should avoid drafting:

1) Jamaal Charles, Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs

There may not be a more electrifying player in the league right now than Jamaal Charles, but you will not catch me wasting a top-five pick on him come draft day.

You might be expecting to hear the well-documented lament of how Todd Haley doesn't give him enough touches. Well, that's true, and is a valid concern, but there's something much more troubling than that.

As one of my favorite bloggers, R.C. Fischer of fantasyfootballmetrics.com notes, the Kansas City Chiefs have a schedule of doom this season. This includes a murderous stretch of games beginning in Week 11 against the New England Patriots, and then is followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears, New York Jets and Green Bay Packers.

Does that sound like a stretch of teams you want your running back to face during fantasy-league playoffs? 

Now, you may be wondering "So what?" or "the Bears don't scare me,"  or "It's Jamaal Charles. They should be more scared of him than vice versa."

Well, it should be noted that Charles' statistical performance took a dive against teams with a winning record. Charles averaged a mortal 73 yards rushing per game against winners, which is a 20-yard drop-off from when he plays losing teams. The receiving yards and touchdowns also suffer a drop.

Those aren't terrible numbers. But for my money, a top-five fantasy pick should be elite down the stretch rather than "not terrible."

2) Dwayne Bowe, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs

If you were scared by Jamaal Charles' numbers in the previous slide, then get ready for a horror story. Dwayne Bowe has not only underperformed against teams with a winning record, but disappeared entirely.

In 2010, Bowe feasted on teams with a losing record, averaging just under 83 yards per game and just over a touchdown. Phenomenal.

But against teams with a winning record? 1.3 catches and 16.3 yards.

No. Thanks.

3) Frank Gore, Running Back, San Francisco 49ers

Pretty much every year, I avoid drafting Frank Gore.

I'll also admit that I've never had a good reason for doing this other than a "gut-feeling," usually resulting from my fear of him getting injured. But for successful fantasy owners, gut feelings are inexcusable. Despite that, I've still fared pretty well.

2010 was almost the year I kicked myself extra hard for passing up on San Francisco's backfield beast. He scored double-digit points in every single game he played last year (note: I'm in a standard PPR league), and was almost impossible to match up against.

Then, as my gut predicted, he got injured.

Gore's commendable fierceness has always come at a price. He has not played a full season since 2006, and it's never a positive experience for fantasy owners to have to keep checking injury reports to see if their top-10 pick will even take the field.

Now, evidence has emerged that Gore is unhappy in San Francisco. It's hard to include the human element in fantasy football projections, but if there is a disgruntlement factor on top of an injury concern, I would look to snag a different stud in the top end of the draft.

4) Shonn Greene, Running Back, New York Jets

As it stands now, Shonn Greene's average draft position according to goaheadscore.com is 46th overall, which would typically place him as the second running back on a roster.

I have just one question to all Greene owners. What has he done to restore your faith from such a terrible 2010?

It's true that he had a remarkable playoff run in 2009, and ever since then he has been at the top of many draft boards. Didn't James Starks of the Green Bay Packers have just as good of a postseason? He certainly did, and he is barely cracking the top 90. Which is exactly where he belongs.

So I'll ask further, didn't Greene have the stage set for a big campaign in 2010? Yes.

Was there upside in drafting him? Certainly.

Was the starting job his to lose? Yes.

And he did.

Why do you think he'll be better in 2011?

The same circumstances appear in this preseason as they did in 2010, so why is there this automatic faith that he'll deliver for your fantasy team? Why the reprieve?

It's also worth noting who clearly doesn't have the utmost faith in Greene, and is perhaps the most telling aspect of all.

That's New York Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum, who drafted Bilal Powell in the fourth round, crowding the backfield even more so.

And it wasn't to play fourth-fiddle behind Joe McKnight. I believe this is additional Greene insurance.

So yes, Greene will have his carries in Rex Ryan's offense, but is the perfect example of how opportunity doesn't mean everything.

5) Michael Turner, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons

Michael Turner is burning towards the age of 30 much faster than he's approaching another elite fantasy year.

Turner had a magnificent 2010, but slowed down significantly over his last four games, averaging a discouraging 3.4 yards per carry.

The wearing down and the drafting of Jacquizz Rodgers should indicate that they are trying to extend Turner's lifespan. This is fine, except that it comes at the expense of precious carries.

Turner's still the guy in Atlanta and should get plenty of goal line touches to give a bonus to his fantasy owners. There's still much to like about The Burner, but much less than previous years including less upside. And not nearly enough of it for me to pick him as my No. 1 back.