MLB Cy Young Award Rankings: Quality Start Factor Provides New Insight

In an MLB era overwhelmed by quantitative analyses, the value and quality of a starting pitcher’s performance is no longer solely predicated on wins, earned run average and strikeouts. But even though sabermetricians have added depth and substance to statistical debates, part of baseball’s charm has been lost as well.

In a way, the game has become inaccessible to fans who love to participate in spirited debates on the elementary statistics. On-base percentage (OBP) and walks plus hits per innings pitched (WHIP)—once viewed as cutting-edge, modern statistics—astonishingly have almost become passé.

What has made the game endearing to generations of fans is the fact that everyone could easily calculate baseball statistics and thoroughly understand them as well.

With the exception of a select few outstanding starting pitchers, the complete game has become an all-but-extinct art form throughout Major League Baseball. Since we will probably never again see a starting pitcher eclipse 20 complete games in a season, the quality start statistic has assumed a role of greater importance.

Just like sabermetricians have added significance to countless baseball statistics, we now must do the same for the quality start. But, it must be done in a manner that the average fan can understand and, most importantly, calculate.

The quality start factor is a stat that attempts to fill that need. 

What Is Quality Start Factor?

The quality start factor, or QSF, incorporates Nolan Ryan’s definition of a quality start—seven or more innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs allowed—and it includes pitch counts. Here's the formula:

(Three Earned Runs or Fewer) + (Total Pitch Count) / (Seven or More Innings Pitched) 

The desired range is essentially 10 to 20. The most desirable scores are closer to 10. For example, if a pitcher were to achieve a QSF of 10, that would mean a complete game was thrown and the pitcher didn’t allow a single earned run while only throwing 90 pitches.

On the other hand, a pitcher could earn a score of 20 if three earned runs were given up over seven innings while throwing 137 pitches. While the outing still qualifies as a quality start under the new definition, the QSF penalizes a starting pitcher for reaching the maximum limit for earned runs allowed, the minimum requirements for innings pitched and a pitch count that pushes 140.

Deviation Within QSF

On a rare occasion, a score might deviate from the desired range.

For example, if we were to apply the quality start factor to David Cone’s perfect game on July 18, 1999, Cone’s QSF would be an unfathomable 9.78. Besides throwing a complete game without allowing a single earned run, Cone only needed 88 pitches to vanquish the Montreal Expos.

Nolan Ryan provides another example of an anomaly that could occur while using the QSF. On July 31, 1990, the all-time strikeout king pitched 7.2 innings while giving up one earned run on 146 pitches in an 11-3 victory against the Milwaukee Brewers. Ryan’s QSF for this outing was a robust 20.42.

What’s the Significance of the Quality Start Factor?

For every Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez or Tim Lincecum, there are dozens of starting pitchers who exude mediocrity and are handsomely rewarded for pedestrian performances.

The current definition of a quality start unfairly lumps the exceptional performances of the aforementioned pitchers into a category with pitchers who either reached a predetermined pitch count or lack the ability to pitch into the final third of a ballgame.

The significance of the quality start factor is that it is intentionally exclusive, and it specifically monitors the balance between pitch counts, innings pitched and earned runs for starting pitchers who meet the basic criteria. 

QSF and the Race for the Cy Young Award

By no means should the quality start factor be used as a singular statistic when determining whether or not a pitcher should be awarded the Cy Young Award in either league. The totality of a pitcher’s body of work must be intensely scrutinized, and various tools and calculations are implemented in order to arrive at an informed decision.

No one just looks at one statistic and makes a judgment based off a single number, especially in baseball. The QSF consistently captures durability, effectiveness and efficiency. Also, it provides instant feedback and allows the user to identify trends and areas of improvement for starting pitchers.

In the following slides, the QSF will be applied to the 2011 performances of the top five candidates for the Cy Young Awards in both the American and National Leagues. One pitcher in each league will be selected as the winner if the season were to end today, using only the information obtained from the QSF.

This exercise is solely to test what the quality start factor can do, and how it can help in the evaluation process.  

AL Cy Young Candidate: Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox ace has rebounded nicely from an injury-plagued 2010 season and a 5.78 earned run average over 21 starts.

QSF Qualifying Starts

21

Record in QSF Starts

6-1, 1.18 ERA vs. 8 teams

QSF Opponents with .500-Plus Records

4 (Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels and Rays)

Best QSF Performance

June 15 vs. Rays, 10.78 QSF

AL Cy Young Candidate: Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have a dynamic 1-2 combination with Dan Haren and Jered Weaver. The well-traveled Haren (Cardinals, Athletics, Diamondbacks and Angels) seems to have finally found a home with Mike Scioscia and the Angels.

Haren’s natural niche appears to be as a No. 2 starter in a rotation, but he consistently exhibits qualities that can easily make him a ballclub’s ace. 

QSF Qualifying Starts

15

Record in QSF Starts

8-1, 1.42 ERA

QSF Opponents with .500-Plus Records

5 (Blue Jays, Rays, Indians, Rangers and Tigers)

Best QSF Performance

July 30 vs. Tigers, 12.67 QSF

AL Cy Young Candidate: CC Sabathia, New York Yankees

Without question, one of the most intriguing storylines of the upcoming offseason will involve the New York Yankees ace and whether or not he opts out of his seven-year, $161 million contract. If he does decide to opt out, Sabathia will be walking away from four years and $92 million.

Even with the recent missteps against the Red Sox and Rays, Sabathia is still having one of his typical stellar seasons.

QSF Qualifying Starts

13

Record in QSF Starts

11-1, 1.07

QSF Opponents with .500-Plus Records

5 (White Sox, Rays, Angels, Brewers, Blue Jays)

Best QSF Performance

July 10 vs. Rays, 12.56 QSF

AL Cy Young Candidate: Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

The former Long Beach State phenom has blossomed into a bona fide star that possesses a minuscule earned run average (2.13) and has once again added the complete game to his repertoire (four).

QSF Qualifying Starts

16

Record in QSF Starts

11-0, 1.08 ERA

QSF Opponents with .500-Plus Records

6 (Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers, Yankees, Rays, Indians)

Best QSF Performance

April 25 vs. A's, 12.67 QSF

AL Cy Young Award Winner: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

Any time Justin Verlander’s name is mentioned in a sentence, one word immediately comes to mind: dominance.

Besides being the driving force for Jim Leyland’s pitching staff, Verlander has unquestionably joined the elite ranks of pitching excellence in the game.

Using only QSF, he would be the Cy Young winner if the season were to end today.

QSF Qualifying Starts

21

Record in QSF Starts

18-2, 1.47 ERA

QSF Opponents with .500-Plus Records

8 (Rangers, White Sox, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Indians, Diamondbacks, Angels, Rays)

Best QSF Performance

May 7 vs. Blue Jays (No-Hitter), 12.56 QSF

NL Cy Young Candidate: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

Without question, Roy Halladay has thrived in the City of Brotherly Love. With the Phillies' ascension to the ranks of baseball’s elite in recent years, Halladay was the missing ingredient for a potential Phillies dynasty.

With teammates Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, the Phillies have one of the most potent triumvirates in all of sports.

QSF Qualifying Starts

17

Record in QSF Starts

12-3, 1.88 ERA

QSF Opponents with .500-Plus Records

4 (Braves, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays)

Best QSF Performance

April 30 vs. Mets, 12.00 QSF

NL Cy Young Candidate: Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

After a disappointing 12-11 campaign last season, Cole Hamels has reversed his fortunes and has become a viable candidate for this year’s Cy Young Award.

QSF Qualifying Starts

17

Record in QSF Starts

12-3, 1.58 ERA

QSF Opponents with .500-Plus Records

3 (Braves, Diamondbacks, Giants)

Best QSF Performance

May 3 vs. Nationals, 12.11 QSF

NL Cy Young Candidate: Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks

Almost out of nowhere, Ian Kennedy has become a legitimate threat in the race for the National League’s Cy Young Award. The afterthought in the famous three-way deal between the Diamondbacks, Tigers and Yankees, Kennedy has an .833 winning percentage by way of a 15-3 record.

QSF Qualifying Starts

12

Record in QSF Starts

8-0, 1.38 ERA

QSF Opponents with .500-Plus Records

3 (Phillies, Giants, Brewers)

Best QSF Performance

April 25 vs. Phillies, 12.67 QSF

NL Cy Young Candidate: Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee was the prized possession of this past offseason’s free-agent bonanza; however, Lee’s performances to date haven’t been as captivating as the other pitchers mentioned.

Still, he is consistent and masterful in so many ways. His 12-7 record is deceiving, just like his fastball.

QSF Qualifying Starts

13

Record in QSF Starts

10-1, 0.77 ERA

QSF Opponents with .500-Plus Records

5 (Braves, Rangers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Giants)

Best QSF Performance

April 14 vs. Nationals, 11.00 QSF

NL Cy Young Award Winner: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s unfortunate that the trials and tribulations of Frank McCourt and the Los Angeles Dodgers have overshadowed the spectacular season of Clayton Kershaw.

The young southpaw has emerged from chaos and uncertainty, and he has become a beacon of light for a dismal franchise.

QSF Qualifying Starts

13

Record in QSF Starts

11-0, 0.96 ERA

QSF Opponents with .500-Plus Records

5 (Giants, Braves, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Angels)

Best QSF Performance

Aug. 1 vs. Padres, 12.22 QSF