Sweepstakes for Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck: Which NFL Loser Wins Big?

When Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck graduated high school he was the 47^th overall recruit in the country. When he leaves college he’ll have made quite an increase in his stock. The no-doubt most talented quarterback in next year’s draft and highly likely number one pick overall, Andrew Luck is without question the real deal. The big loser during the 2011 season will most certainly win big in the “Luck Sweepstakes.”

So, which team has the best shot at being number one in the 2012 draft?

Washington Redskins

John Beck and Rex Grossman would like you to believe that the QB position isn't as bad as it looks. I, on the other hand, see through the quarterbacks’ talkative offseason. The Washington Redskins have needed a franchise quarterback like no other team in football for some time now. Names like Danny Wuerffel, Patrick Ramsey, Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell and, most recently, Donovan McNabb have never satisfied the thirst for Skins fans. The Washington Redskins need an offensive leader to make changes in DC.

Since the 1999 season in which the Redskins were the 2^nd rated overall offense in the league (Skins fans may remember this season by the botched field goal snap in the playoffs), the Skins have had two playoff appearances. Since '99, Washington has been ranked in the top half of the NFL offensively just once (13^th in 2005).

Simply put, the Redskins need a sure-fire quarterback like Andrew Luck. If things get ugly this year for Shanahan’s squad, they may just have a shot at a little bit of Luck next April. 

Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks had a great season last year, including a playoff win over the former Super Bowl champion Saints. So why would they be involved in the “Luck Sweepstakes?” Simply put, I’m not buying what Tarvaris Jackson is selling. What has this guy done to warrant a starting job in the NFL? Lost in the Favre nonsense for years, he was always the backup plan. A career QB rating of 76.6 to go along with a near 50-50 ratio for TD’s and INT’s (24/22). Seattle lost long-time QB Matt Hasselback in the offseason, and I don’t see Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst or Josh Portis leading this team to many wins this year. It doesn’t help that division rivals Arizona (Kevin Kolb) and St. Louis (Sam Bradford) now have their franchise QBs in place. 

A tough year might just bring Pete Carroll a familiar Pac-12 face as his new franchise quarterback when next year’s draft rolls around.

Denver Broncos

There's a lot of talk in Denver over the Orton versus Tebow debate. Which QB is the right guy to start?  Well, I’d like to ask: What if neither is the right guy? People who praise Kyle Orton need to wonder why the team went 3-10 in games started by him last season. It’s also no secret that QB Tim Tebow has been severely scrutinized (just ask Merril Hodge about him). Seems like the people of Denver forgot they also have former first-round pick Brady Quinn as well. One has to acknowledge the severe question mark surrounding the starting quarterback position in the Mile High City.

I’m sure I don’t have to remind Bronco fans that they had the league’s worst defense last year. The Broncos were dead last in rush defense and total points allowed. Denver drafted Linebacker Von Miller with the second overall pick in this past year’s draft, but how much will that help this year. The defense will also be glad to have Elvis Dumervil return from last season's injury. The Broncos are also dealing with integrating a new head coach in John Fox. Denver has lost 20 out of their last 26 games, don't expect much different out of them this year.

It’s also important to note that John Elway is running the Broncos these days. The Hall of Fame quarterback’s Alma Mater is none other than Stanford University. John Elway was quoted saying Andrew Luck was the “best football player in draft.” This was, of course, before Andrew Luck announced he’d be returning to Stanford for another year.

Miami Dolphins

There is an ugly situation brewing in South Beach regarding QB Chad Henne. It seems he’s almost as unpopular as Nevin Shapiro in Miami these days. Chad Henne has been booed regularly throughout his career, but never this loudly by his own fans! A career QB rating of 75.3 and 27 TDs to 33 INTs will never gain you much popularity. What Henne’s main problem just might be is that the fans see him at his worst. The Dolphins were 1-7 at home last year compared to 6-2 on the road. Fans asked for Tyler Thigpen over Henne towards the end of last year….Yuck!
           
What also helps the Dolphins in the “Luck Sweepstakes” is that they lost their leader from last year's really good defense with Channing Crowder’s retirement. Expect a lot of tan yet unhappy faces in South Florida to be looking for some Luck come next April.

San Francisco 49ers

Is the end of the Alex Smith era upon us?

QB Alex Smith has never lived up to the hype after being selected number one overall in the 2005 NFL draft. Smith has played in 54 games, thrown 53 picks, fumbled 28 times and tallied a 72.1 career passer rating. In the past he’s been benched in favor of the likes of Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill and even Troy Smith. Though he’s been better over the last two years, a struggling 49ers ballclub may just be looking for a fresh start after Smith’s 6^th failed season.           

The 49ers have not had a winning season since 2002. Jim Harbaugh is the fourth coach since that season. If San Francisco struggles this year and finds themselves in the thick of the “Luck Sweepstakes,” expect coach Harbaugh to select his pride-and-joy/brainchild QB Andrew Luck. After all, they had quite the connection at Stanford University, resulting in a 12-1 season last year before Harbaugh bolted to the NFL.          

Cincinnati Bengals

There are a lot of similarities between this 2011 Bengals team and the Carolina Panthers of last year. After drafting Jimmy Clausen in the second round of the 2010 draft, the Panthers went on to have a 2-14 season, hired a new head coach and drafted QB Cam Newton with the number one overall pick. If my analogy holds true, Coach Marvin Lewis may be on his way out after back-to-back abysmal seasons.  Cincinnati should be looking for some new faces.

If I’m a Bengals fan, I have very low expectations for the 2011 season. Coming off of a 4-12 season last year, I’d expect equally frustrating results this upcoming season. The Bengals acquired stud WR A.J. Green and TCU QB Andy Dalton in the first and second rounds of the past draft. But what talent is around to help and teach these guys?

After an ugly year in which Cincinnati endured a 10-game losing streak, many familiar faces will be missing when week one rolls around. The Bengals lost CB Jonathon Joseph to free agency, traded away WR Chad Ochocinco to the Pats and shouldn’t plan on seeing “retired” QB Carson Palmer who refuses to wear black and orange anymore. There are very few bright spots on this team; I expect a long year for these guys and a serious bid in the Luck Sweepstakes. 

The Cincinnati Bengals are my favorite to lose big during the 2011 season but win big during the 2012 draft.

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