Caroline Wozniacki's Loss to Christina McHale in Cincinnati: What It Means

Caroline Wozniacki has been having a rough stretch the past few weeks, losing four of her last five matches. Putting aside for a moment her retirement against Sofia Arvidsson in Båstad (shoulder issues), these aren't losses to big names either. Even for a counterpuncher like Wozniacki, the punches of Dominika Cibulkova, Roberta Vinci, and now Christina McHale shouldn't be intimidating enough to push Caro around the court and leave her flustered. 

But in those three losses, that is exactly how she has looked: flustered, like she had left her game somewhere in the locker room. She was even tearful after the most recent loss, which is something you don't expect from the cool-headed Dane.

Let's look at the pre-McHale losses first. Apologists might say Caro has never loved grass and Cibulkova simply was playing out of her skin at Wimbledon. Or, they'll say the windy conditions in Toronto favored a crafty pro like Vinci. 

But that brings us to the McHale match—pretty good conditions for tennis and an opponent rising in the rankings who can hit well enough, but who possesses no real mental or physical weapons. Watching the match, neither player was dominating, and until the end you had to still like Wozniacki's chances. So what went wrong?

Confidence versus caution

Somehow, McHale was the one with confidence, especially at the bigger moments. She only won five more total points in the match, but she played the big points better. Earning one more break in each set was all it took.

Why was McHale so confident? It wasn't simply the impetuousness of youth. It was because defense and speed by themselves aren't intimidating—unless you're using them to set up offense, or they're paired with a gritty, never-say-die attitude. McHale, and most players, walk on the court against Wozniacki thinking of her as their best chance to notch a victory against a No. 1.   

It didn't help that Wozniacki was so cautious that she lost all her timing. Match play is critical for Wozniacki, who is as much a rhythm player as any of the many (many) baseliners in the game today. As she goes deeper in tournaments and plays every week, she moves inside the court more easily and takes the ball earlier.

Wozniacki has never gone into a grand slam without extensive lead-up match play, so New York should answer some questions about her mental conditioning.

Those answers might not be positive ones.

A Boost for Christina McHale

In tennis, and most sport, self-belief plays a huge role. After her struggle (read: complete meltdown) against Sara Errani at Roland Garros, you could have excused McHale for fading away the rest of the season. But she hasn't, and instead has earned some big wins and suffered only quality losses. With this latest upset, McHale could ride the momentum into the third round in Flushing Meadows and set herself up for a strong 2012.  

People have been searching for the next big thing in American's women's tennis for a while now, and the U.S. Open regularly offers a Cinderella story to get us all hoping. In the old days we'd see a precocious Jennifer Capriati, Venus, or Serena make an early mark there and then go on to greatness, but more recently we've watched Melanie Oudin or Beatrice Capra sparkle briefly only to fizzle soon after. Maybe McHale can finally give us a reliable, young, Top 20 presence. Maybe.      

A Silver Lining for Wozniacki? 

Some thought the losses to Daniela Hantuchova in Paris or Cibulkova at Wimbledon would serve as wake-up calls, but I sense that the very non-competitive, first-round losses to Vinci and McHale are more of a shock for Wozniacki. Before, she always seemed willing to accept that the other player simply was too good or that she simply had an off day.

If these kinds of shock losses are necessary to finally force Wozniacki to adopt a more aggressive style or get a new coach, then I'll welcome it for the sake of her tennis future.

The other upside of her poor showing in Toronto and Cincinnati? She now has a stretch in 2012 (besides the majors) where she can pick up ranking points. Only eight other women have been No. 1 longer than Wozniacki, who will stay No. 1 into September at least. The ranking might seem like cold comfort without a slam, but if she gets back into form and even raises her level a little bit in 2012, Wozniacki could hold that spot for many more weeks.

Sometimes in sports, the computers don't match common sense. It might be the one thing college football and women's tennis have in common.