Which MLB Division Leader Will Choke?

Every season there is a team that always grabs a huge lead until the wheels completely fall off in August and September.

Sure, your team may have been the best in baseball back in May, but it does not matter how great your team was playing in the spring or for the early parts of the summer. If your team squanders a huge lead, they need to ride the ship and avoid giving their fan base a nightmare of an offseason.

So, what team will choke away their lead and fail to make the postseason? 

NL East-Philadelphia Phillies

Whether you are a diehard Phillie fanatic or just can't stand them, I hope we understand they have been nearly unstoppable this season. They are an impeccable 35 games over .500 at 75-30!

Their starting rotation is the reason they are the best team in baseball. Their rotation leads baseball in the following statistics: wins (56), ERA (2.95), shutouts (15),CG (14), and Ks (644).

Also, the return of Chase Utley at the end of spring and the trade for Hunter Pence at the trade deadline was a nice shot in the armor. The rich got a lot richer as now Ryan Howard is protected by Pence which is enabling him to put up MVP numbers (.252 AVG, 24 HR, 89 RBI).

I think it is safe to say they will hold their 8.5 game lead ahead of the talented, but injury laden, Atlanta Braves.

Predicted Finish: Phillies 101-61 over Braves 91-71 (Note: ATL wins Wild Card)

NL West- San Francisco Giants

It was the 13th of May and the Giants were tied for first place with the Rockies. The Arizona Baby Backs were 5.5 games back and were in second to last place!

Oh my, have times changed with the sweet, swinging Justin Upton. J-UP has arguably been the best OF in the National League not named Matt Kemp. 22 HRs, 68 RBI, 16 SBs, and 31 doubles has helped the D-Backs inch closer and closer to the defending World Series champions. 

AZ is only half a game back which is amazing when you look at their starting rotation. The rotation is 20th in baseball with a ERA of 4.16! Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Jason Marquis, Josh Collmenter, and Joe Saunders are not exactly Cy Young candidates which makes it that much more of a miracle for Kurt Gibson and pitching coach Charles Nagy.

The Giants have been struggling mightily offensively as they are hitting .221 and have averaged only 2.2 runs per game the past 18 games (6-12). Also, newly acquired OF Carlos Beltran has not been going bonkers like most experts predicted. Beltran is hitting just .268 with zero HRs and only two RBI since being acquired on July 29th.

To make matters worse Beltran is currently dealing with a strained wrist and may be forced to miss a few games. The Giants lack a true power hitter among many things. They have been abysmal and will need guys like Aubrey Huff and  Nate Schierholtz to perform well in crunch time.

Prediction: Giants 88-74 over Diamondbacks 86-76 (AZ fails to catch ATL in Wild Card) 

NL Central- Milwaukee Brewers

Many experts slated the Reds as the preseason favorites and thank goodness I never listen to those "so called experts". I had the Brew Crew as my NL Central darlings, but finishing off the St. Louis Cardinals is not going to be easy. Nine games are yet to played between these two and six of them are in St. Louis.

Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun have been a two man wrecking crew, but they have received plenty of help from Corey Hart and Nyjer Morgan. Remember Milwaukee is playing without their All-Star second basemen Rickie Weeks who should be back in September for the home stretch.

The Brewers are eighth in baseball in batting average hitting .262 and are 10th in runs scored with 512. St. Louis has been even better hitting .270 (third) and scoring 552 runs (fourth).

The stats are scary between the Brewers and the Cardinals because of how close these two teams are. The starting rotation's ERA are literally identical at 3.91 (14th). The bullpen's are nearly the same as well with the Cardinals at 3.77 (18th) and the Brewers at 3.82 (19th).

Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman have combined to form one of the best three man wrecking crews in baseball. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Rickie Weeks (when healthy) have been filthy as well.

The experience of Tony LaRussa and the Cardinals may give them the slightest of edges, but the Brewers have had that magical touch and remain my dark horse to knock off the Phillies in October.

Predicted Finish in Division: Brewers 90-72 over St Louis 88-74  

AL West- Texas Rangers

On June 10th, the Halos were playing five games under .500 and were actually six GB! They were playing just like I thought they would based off my my preseason predictions, but then Jered Weaver just continued to pitch like a man possessed.

Jered Weaver has been simply insane this season posting an ERA of 1.78, a WHIP of 0.94 along with his four CGs and two shutouts. Dan Haren looks like a bum next to Weaver (kidding) posting an ERA of 2.81 with a WHIP at 0.97! This is by far the best duo in the American League and possibly the best in baseball!

Still, to contend with the Rangers you need to be able to rake. The Halos have done just enough ranking 20th in HRs, 24th in runs scored, 18th in BA, and 19th in extra base hits.

Those numbers are not convincing but at least LAA has flashed some leather for their pitching staff. Their 60 errors is the fifth best in baseball (CWS, PHI,TB, BOS, LAA) which makes up a fielding percentage of .986. The Rangers are dead last in baseball with 95 errors!

Thank the lord they can hit better than nearly every team in baseball: third in HRs (136), third in runs (589), and second in AVG (.277).  

Plus, there are ten games still between these two clubs (seven are at LAA) which will make this division come down to the final week perhaps (last three games of season TEX @ LAA).

I like the Angels chances of making this division go down to the wire, but the hitting of Hunter, Wells, and Abreu have not been convincing.

Predicted Finish: Texas 89-73 over Angels 86-76  

AL Central- Detroit Tigers

Trivia Time! How many division crowns do the Detroit Tigers have in the AL Central since it formed in 1994? Huh? It can't be! That's right Jim Leyland's Tigers have been eating bagels for the past 16 seasons.

Leyland led the Tigers to the World Series in 2006 as a Wild Card, a year where the Twins won the AL Central. Through the first 16 seasons in the AL Central, the Tribe have won the most crowns with seven whereas the Twins are next with six. Even the White Sox have found a way to win the division three times.

As far as who is going to win the AL Central, the race is still down to three teams. Tigers, Indians, and White Sox. I could not count out the Twins, but with all the injuries and after getting swept by the White Sox (still doesn't sound right) the Twin cities will be home putting on greens in October.

Starting with the Tigers, Justin Verlander has been arguably the best ace in the game. Detroit has had the lead in the Central since July 10th. They have the best hitting team in the division by far, hitting .268 while scoring 508 runs. Miguel Cabrera is an MVP candidate once again despite hitting fourth behind Magglio Ordonez.

The Tribe are staying alive despite ranking in the middle of the pack in every single category. They have had several walk-offs which explains their 18 one run victories (18 one run losses too). However, they threw in the kitchen sink for Ubaldo and I do not foresee them catching fire with the lack of any offensive punch.

The White Sox have been as topsy-turvy as any team in baseball. They have been consistently inconsistent driving the city of Chicago crazy. Some fans love Ozzie's antics, but at the same time they think he is among the worst managers in baseball. He still struggles to handle his bullpen and rotation, yet they are still hovering around .500.

If this were any other division in baseball, we would probably be talking about how the White Sox are 12 games out, if not more. Yet, the Sox are still alive and kicking.      

Paul Konerko has been one of the more underrated players in the game for years and the hot-hitting Carlos Quentin is on the verge of posting career numbers. Adam Dunn of course is having a career year in terms of all-time history. I could write a book on his struggles alongside Alex Rios. 

However, the Sox are finally catching fire winning four straight while winning six in a row on the road and hitting .264. John Danks, Jake Peavy, and Mark Buehrle have all been throwing gems as it is clearly up to the hitters to hit better with RISP (23rd).

The White Sox are the only team that have yet to completely catch fire which tells me they are beyond due. While most may look at the White Sox as a team who is just mediocre or even abysmal at times, there is no doubting the star power they have with Konerko and Quentin.

A stretch in which they have seven against the Orioles and Royals should determine just how serious Chicago is. Every season a team chokes away a division and I foresee the Tigers bullpen (29th) letting yet another division crown slip away.

Predicted Finish: Chicago 86-76 over Detroit 85-77 and Cleveland 82-80 

Note: I cannot seriously consider the AL East as a division where the winner or loser chokes since they will have the two best records in the American League with the Yankees and Red Sox likely facing off in the ALCS.