10 Reasons the Detroit Tigers Will Win the AL Central

Going into the second half of the season, the AL Central was wide open.  A few weeks in, the Detroit Tigers have rushed to the forefront of the race and separated themselves a bit from the pack, but the division is still wide open.  Realistically, four teams have a shot at making a run at the division championship, and no team is dominant or good enough at this point to be considered a clear-cut favorite to run away with the division. 

Although it may seem obvious at this point, due to the sizable four-game lead that the Tigers have, the AL Central race is by no means over. 

The Cleveland Indians led the division for a substantial portion of this season, made an uncharacteristically big name catch in Ubaldo Jimenez at the trading deadline, and boast a deep enough pitching staff to make a run. 

The Twins, who have been decimated by injuries all year, have played well enough the last two months after a horrible start to get themselves into reasonable striking distance.  If they are able to ever get fully healthy, there is no telling what kind of run they can go on—especially considering their recent successes against the White Sox, Indians and Royals.  The Twins have 19 games remaining against these teams. They will hopefully cancel out the 9 games they have remaining with the Tigers, against whom they have struggled.

The White Sox, despite the fact that they have not been able to catch fire and break free of mediocrity, are still within striking distance with a high ceiling of potential based on what they have on paper.  Their pitching and most of their hitters have under-performed in comparison to their career numbers, and have shown brief signs in most cases of coming to life at one point or another during the season.

Despite the fact that there are realistic scenarios in which all teams can win this competitive, but rather mediocre, AL Central, the Tigers should come out on top. 

Here are 10 reasons why.

1. The Detroit Tigers Have the Best Team

By and large, the Tigers have played the most consistent baseball over the course of this season.  They may not have gotten hot quite to the extent that the Sox, Twins, and Indians at some point have, but they have pretty much been in the race from the start.  They've also never really hit any huge ruts like the other teams have. 

Despite the fact that their rivals have the talent to make a run, the Tigers probably have the most balanced roster.

2. Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander is arguably the best pitcher in the American League, and certainly the best pitcher in the AL Central.  He is dominant enough that he has thrown multiple no-hitters in his career and had 14 games of eight or more strikeouts this year.  With him, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers experiencing the type of prolonged slump that would allow their rivals to overtake them in the division.

3. Twins Injuries

The Twins have simply suffered too much this season from their various injuries to key players.  Their early rash that cost them the likes of Morneau, Span, Mauer, and Kubel, put them in such a hole that they have been playing major catch-up ever since.  It would be hard to imagine them playing the type of baseball they played in June and early July again.  As well as they played, they are still 10.5 games back in the division and they are not good enough to be counted on to make up that difference.

4. Jose Valverde

Jose Valverde not only is a big game closer who seems to absolutely thrive in pressure-filled situations, but he has yet to blow a save this year.  This is as dominant as he has been in his career, and although there are other good closers in the AL Central, it helps to have a top-flight closer that thrives in the moment like Jose.

5. Indians Hitting Woes

While Cleveland has a very solid pitching staff and a remarkable bullpen, the Tribe have struggled to sustain any sort of offense this year.  While Travis Hafner has made a return to prominence and is smoking the ball all over the yard this year, and Asdrubal Cabrera is having a career season, the Tribe have THREE players batting over .250.  That is not going to be enough firepower to hunt down the Tigers down the stretch.

6. White Sox Mediocrity

The White Sox have struggled mightily this year to really string together enough wins to put pressure on the Tigers.  Every time they seem to click and get hot, they follow it up with an awful stretch of baseball to cool them down and break momentum.  Several times this year they have followed up solid stretches of good play with three- and four-game losing streaks.  Unfortunately, the Twins are usually involved, as they have always struggled against their hated rivals to the north.  They still have 7 games left with the Twins.

7. Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn is having what is shaping up to be one of the worst offensive seasons in MLB history.  Few players have been more predictable over the years than Adam Dunn.  He strikes out a lot, walks a lot, hits a ton of mammoth home runs, and produces a ton of runs.  He has had ONE year under 38 home runs since 2004 and averaged just under 34 home runs over the course of his career.  He also averages 90+ walks and usually record-breaking numbers of strikeouts.  

This year, the strikeouts have remained, but everything else that has been so consistent over the years has vanished.  He is batting a baffling .165 with 11 HR and 40 RBI well after the midway point of this season.  The walks are relatively close, but quite simply, if Adam Dunn was performing anywhere close to what the Sox reasonably expected from him this season, there would be no reason to think the Sox couldn't be leading this division.

8. Alex Rios

When Alex Rios plays to his capabilities and brings his five-tool abilities to the table, the Sox are a different team.  When he hit well last year, the Sox went on a run.  However, if not for Dunn’s puzzling performance this year, the focus would be on Rios’s struggles. 

Over the years, Rios has been a solid hitter with good pop and speed to make a difference on the bases and in the field.  This year, he has followed up an all-star season by batting at a .218 clip with 7 HR, 27 RBI and 10 SB. 

Quite frankly, combined with Dunn’s struggles, it seems pretty clear to me why the Sox have struggled to get off the ground this year and really make a realistic run at the AL Central title.  Especially compared to what they could have reasonably projected from two of their better players.  If almost any team in baseball had two of their stars perform like this, they would be doomed.

9. Jim Leyland

He’s a winning manager. He’s been to the playoffs several times, the World Series multiple times, and won one World Series championship.  It is pretty fair to declare him the most experienced and most successful manager in the division when it comes to the playoffs.  Gardenhire and Guillen are great in their own right, but given the lead the Tigers have, it’s reasonable to expect that the Tigers can hold on.

10. Star Power

All of the contending teams have plenty of stars, and each team could argue for their stars being the class of the division.  But not only do the Tigers have star power that can compare well against anyone else’s in the division, they have performed like stars this year, unlike their rivals. 

Former MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera is hitting .318 with 22 HR and 71 RBI, Jhonny Peralta is batting .314 with 16 HR and 62 RBI, and Vic Martinez is batting .323 with 64 RBI.  When your three best hitters are putting up numbers like that, and show no signs of stopping, you can feel very comfortable that the Tigers will sustain their lead.