UFC Live Main Event Breakdown: Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle

On August 14th 2011, UFC Live will be featuring a three-round main event fight between an always entertaining pair of fighters, Chris "Lights Out" Lytle and Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy. The fight will be a sure-fire crowd pleaser with both performers looking to walk away with a much needed victory as they approach a crossroad in each of their respective careers.

For Hardy, this could be the match that seals his fate with the UFC if he loses. He is currently riding a three fight losing streak and a fourth could send the Brit back over the pond. A win would likely save his UFC career as his go-for-it fight style and brash attitude are traits that Dana White and many fans love to see from a competitor.

Lytle is looking to redeem himself after a upset loss to Brian Ebersole which ended his four fight winning streak and shut the door on Lytle's hopes for a title match with Georges St-Pierre. Lytle, at age 36, might be looking to go out with a win before he retires. Lytle may get back on track if he can display a dominant performance, which may allow him to make a final push for a championship run.

So lets get started with the toe-to-toe breakdown between these two Octagon warriors.

Size and Reach Advantage

This is a pretty self explaining slide as there isn't any question about who is at the advantage and dis-advantage.

Chris Lytle stands at a height of 5'11" and has a reach of 68 inches.

Dan Hardy stands at a height of 6'0" and has a reach of 74 inches.

Breaking down the math, that gives Dan Hardy a one inch advantage in height and a six inch advantage in reach. Meaning if the match stays standing where Hardy will want it, he should hold a decisive size advantage over Chris Lytle.

Advantage: Dan Hardy

Chin

This will be a debatable factor between these two fighters because both Hardy and Lytle have excellent ability in taking a shot to the coconut.

Hardy has only a single loss in 33 professional fights resulting from punches and that was against Carlos Condit. Hardy was caught by a hook as he was attempting the exact same punch but the problem occurred when Condit's hook landed first which resulted in a knockout loss.

Chris Lytle has never been knocked out of a fight from punches alone. In his two TKO losses, both stemmed from doctor stoppages. Not too bad from a guy that has fought in 53 professional fights.

Edge: Chris Lytle

Speed

Speed will be a necessary element for both fighters as they look to implement their game-plan against one another.

For Hardy, speed will play a very important role because he should want to work the jab and keep Lytle away from getting inside where he has potential to drag this fight to the ground.

For Lytle, speed will be necessary to get inside the range of Hardy to either mix-it-up or get close enough for a take-down.

I am personally going to choose the younger, fresher legged Dan Hardy to have the overall speed advantage.

Edge: Dan Hardy

Striking

This is one of the easier predictions.

In the 53  professional bouts that Chris Lytle has had, only three had come by form of knockout. This does not say by any means that Lytle is a slouch on his feet as he is a very scrappy, tough as nails, forward moving fighter.

Dan Hardy, on the other hand, has 11 wins by form of knockout. He is known primarily for his stand-up striking skills which are what brought him to the table and kept him there. Hardy will trade with anyone in the world and isn't gun-shy when it comes to throwing punches.

This will be a battle between two hard-headed individuals but the precision striking and power striking advantages both belong to one participant.

Advantage: Dan Hardy

Submissions and Submission Defense

Dan Hardy may have been focusing on his ground game over the past few years but is it enough to keep the fight standing for an entire fight? Chances are more than likely that this, like any other mixed martial arts contest, eventually will touch the canvas.

Hardy has one win by submission that was an actual result of a submission hold. He also has three submission losses but they occurred very early in his career. Hardy survived multiple submissions by Georges St-Pierre that appeared to be locked in very tight, yet he refused to tap. Even though he has improved his ground game by leaps-and-bounds, Hardy wants to remain on his feet throughout this contest.

Lytle's bread-and-butter is his submission game. Lytle holds a 2nd degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has an astonishing 21 victories by way of submission. Another great Chris Lytle fact is that not only has he never been stopped by punches, he has never been submitted either. There really isn't a lot more to say about his credentials.

Advantage: Chris Lytle

Stamina

I do not believe that either of these fighters will run out of gas during their match-up and for that I would likely say it will be a push. Frankly though, I hate word "push" in a break-down of fighters so allow me to further analyze this.

Chris Lytle will be four days shy of being 37 years of age when this fight takes place. Adding to that fact is that Lytle has never participated in a fight that has went over three rounds.

Dan Hardy is 29 years of age and has went five rounds in a championship match with Georges St-Pierre. Simply saying that his cardio is never in question.

Edge: Dan Hardy

Predicted Winner

In a classic way of thinking you have the age old match-up between a stand-up fighter and a ground specialist but this isn't a classic style of match at all.

Chris Lytle will surely want to please the fans as always and will do so by exchanging with Dan Hardy for at least a round.

This will be Dan Hardy's best opportunity to win the fight in my opinion as he holds a distinct advantage in the stand-up and reach department. If he can punish Lytle early, Lytle might never establish himself to have the ability to get inside of Dan Hardy's offense and be punished for three rounds, resulting in a decision loss.

That is not how I see this fight going though. I fully expect some big exchanges in the first round and partially into the second round. I firmly believe the chin and toughness of Lytle will prevail through the striking that takes place early in this fight. Eventually though, Lytle will get this fight to the ground and find a way to end Dan Hardy's night early. Lytle has excellent BJJ and can finish any fighter if given just a moment to lock in a submission.   

Winner: Chris Lytle by 2nd round submission (rear-naked choke)