College Football 2011: West Virginia Mountaineers and BCS Predictions

West Virginia has been home to one of the premier college football programs in the country for quite a while.

But over the course of the last few years, the Mountaineers have moved in the direction of disarray, at least at the management level.

Coach Rich Rodriguez skipped town in favor of Michigan four years ago just ahead of NCAA investigators, but he didn’t last long with the Wolverines. Coach Bill Stewart followed with some success, but when he got word he had to take on an heir apparent, he reacted by allegedly asking reporters to dig up dirt on the new guy and was later forced to resign.

So new head coach Dana Holgorsen takes over a turbulent situation in Morgantown.   

West Virginia had 16 starters back in 2010, and they were considered among the favorites to win the Big East again, even though they had to break in a new quarterback. The Mountaineers started 3-0, but needed a touchdown and two-point conversion in the final half-minute before beating Marshall in overtime. They then lost at LSU, won a couple games in a row, then got upset by Syracuse and Connecticut (in OT).

The team rallied to win their last four, which included a blowout victory over Pitt in the Backyard Brawl, but they finished on a down note, losing to North Carolina State in a minor bowl.

So that's three-straight 9-4 seasons for West Virginia, which is a downgrade from its three-straight 11-win seasons from 2005-2007.

The Mountaineers managed to go 7-5 ATS last year and 2-0 ATS as underdogs. West Virginia went 5-8 on the "over/unders," as Mountaineers games—thanks mainly to their stingy defense—averaged just 39 total points per contest.

This year West Virginia returns 11 starters, but only four on defense, so their new offensive-minded coach has work to do on that side of the ball.

Coach

Holgorsen takes over in awkward circumstances; once the coach-in-waiting for one season, he instead steps in a year before scheduled. Holgorsen was most recently the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State, where he helped create an offensive monster, and before that, he was the OC at Texas Tech and Houston.

The Mountaineers will transition from a team that averaged 300 yards per game on the ground a few years ago to a team that throws the ball 40 times each game.

Offense

Seven starters are back on offense this year, including QB Geno Smith (65 percent completions last year, 24/7 TD/INT), WR Tavon Austin and three offensive linemen.

But they lose leading rusher Noel Devine, who accounted for 4,900 yards from scrimmage in his college career, and they took a hit when senior G Josh Jenkins was lost for the season after hurting his knee in the spring game.

West Virginia ranked third in conference play last year in yardage at 366 YPG and first in rushing at 162 YPG. But, of course, those numbers don't mean a whole lot now with the change in system that is coming.

Defense

Just four starters return to a unit that ranked first in total defense in Big East play, allowing just 249 YPG and giving up only 12 points per game. The Mountaineers also led the league in yards per points allowed and in sacks.

West Virginia gets back just two on their front six, but fortunately one of those is DE Bruce Irvin, who ranked second in the nation with 14 sacks last year.

While there are many holes to fill on this side of the ball, West Virginia should still field one of the better defenses in the Big East.

2011 West Virginia Mountaineers Football Schedule

The Mountaineers begin with five non-conference games, starting with Marshall—whom they needed OT to beat last year—before they visit Maryland and host LSU.

They then start the Big East season with a revenge game at home with UConn, visit Syracuse and Rutgers, get Louisville at home, visit Cincinnati, then end the season with the other two Big East favorites, getting Pitt at home and visiting South Florida.

If the Mountaineers can win all the games they're expected to win and beat LSU (a national title contender), they could be undefeated heading into their home stretch. 

2011 West Virginia College Football Odds

WagerWeb is listing West Virginia at +225 to win the Big East title this season, and Bodog is offering West Virginia at 25-to-1 to win the BCS Championship this season.

2011 West Virginia Mountaineers Football Predictions

One might expect the Mountaineers' offense to go through some growing pains with the change in systems, although it looks like they've got a quarterback who could handle the situation.

However, the loss of Jenkins will hurt, and the defense is a bit "iffy." So we'll call for nine regular-season wins.