Batting Average... Does It Really Matter?

Historically, the batting average of a MLB player has been a significant statistic by which to judge relative offensive performance. Fans, announcers, journalists and sports historians have always pointed to that statistic when comparing current players against each other, and when comparing one generation of ballplayer against another.

In modern times, on base percentage (OBP) and on base plus slugging percentage (OBPS) have taken on a more prevalent position, although batting averages are still considered an important measuring stick.

I must admit to focusing on this statistic myself. However, after careful review it has dawned on me just how marginal a difference a player’s batting average makes in the larger offensive scheme.

Take Mark Teixeira, for instance. The New York Yankees first baseman finds his average hovering in the .240 range as we approach the end of July.

For a career .285 hitter, this drop in average is not something that goes under the radar. Why, its 40-plus points, you say, and darn-it, that sounds like a heck of a lot!! 

Well, it does, in fact, sound like a lot. But when the numbers are broken down and all offensive categories are taken into account, the 40 point drop being experienced by Teixeira does not qualify as a catastrophe by any measure.

Based on Teixeira’s 2011 statistics to date, through 101 games he is averaging roughly 3.78 official at bats per game. His 93 total hits give him a batting average of .243 through July 27^th. The combination of his 52 walks, hit-by-pitches and other instances of getting on base have his on-base-percentage (OBP) at .343. Other vitals include 28 home runs, 76 RBI and 58 runs scored.

Projected out over the reminder of the season—presuming Teixeira misses just one more game—he will end the year with roughly 571 at bats, 139 hits, around 42 home runs, in the range of 115 RBI, about 87 runs scored, an OBP of .343 and an average of .243.

Comparing these numbers to his historical averages of 578 at bats per year, 163 hits, 34 home runs, 113 RBI and 98 runs scored, we see that Teixeira will produce a very typical year for him outside of two categories—OBP and average.

If he continues on his current path, as we pointed out earlier, his batting average will be roughly 40 points less than his career average and, additionally, his OBP will be roughly 33 points below. These drops, of course, will manifest in his projected-to-be-lower runs scored total of 87, which represents an 11 run differential when up against his career mark.

This all gets really interesting when you strip away the averages and percentages, and start looking at the actual totals.

As we said, Mark Teixeira has typically totaled in the range of 163 hits per year. In 2011, that number is projected to be 139 if all holds true. The statistical difference between the two numbers projects to that unsightly 40 points we referenced earlier.

However, it amounts to just 24 total hits over the course of the entire season. Would Teixeira take those 24 hits? Of course he would, as would any sane ballplayer concerned about his performance.

In the larger scheme of things, though, those 24 hits equate to just 4 extra hits per month. If the average month contains roughly 28 games, it means that to equal his career average in total hits (163) prior to this season Teixeira would have to produce just 1 additional hit every seventh game. Or, put another way, just one additional hit per every 26 or so at bats.

As far as his OBP is concerned, he can anticipate getting on base 26 fewer times this year. That equates to roughly the same per month, per game diminishment associated with his batting average.

What this analysis demonstrates is just how small the margin is between the player that goes to the Hall Of Fame and the player that has a nice statistical career.

If, for instance, Teixeira were to play 18 total years and produce 167 hits per year, or just a few more hits per year than what he’s been averaging thus far, he is a first ballot Hall of Famer with 3,006 hits, over 500 home runs and a boatload of RBI.

If, on the other hand, he had been averaging 139 hits per year to this point—his projected total this year—he would come in at just over 2500 hits to go with his other numbers. With those numbers he is remembered as a great ballplayer, of course, and with his Gold Gloves he more than likely gets into the Hall, but there would be undoubtedly be a debate as opposed to the clear path that 3,000 plus hits would create.

As we’ve all heard, baseball is a game of inches. It appears, however, that more than anything, baseball is a game of fractions.

By Joseph Browne