Phillies Trade Rumors: B.J. Upton Is Not a Good Fit

Earlier today New York Post writer Joel Sherman tweeted the Philadelphia Phillies have shown interest in the Tampa Bay Rays' B.J. Upton. Unlike players such as Hunter Pence and Carlos Beltran, who Phillies fans have been pretty split in trading for, I am pretty sure the vast majority will agree about B.J. Upton.

While the casual fans may not like Upton because of his consistently poor average, .229 so far this year, and his "propensity to be lazy," even those who prefer more advanced statistics are not a fan of his offensive contributions.

By now, it's obvious he's not the player his rookie year, or even his second year, suggested. Benefiting from a ridiculous .393 BABIP, he posted a .300/.386/.508 line with a .387 wOBA.

Instead, focus on 2009 to present. With his BABIP settling around .300, his offensive lines have been pretty consistent.

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
2009	.241	.313	.373	.310	86
2010	.237	.322	.424	.337	111
2011	.229	.310	.395	.318	102

Offensively, right now he is more along the lines of a right-handed Raul Ibanez. John Mayberry Jr. and Domonic Brown both would top his production. Offensively, the Phillies do not improve.

His splits against left-handed pitching also are nothing to gush over. Even though he shows a tendency to walk at a much higher rate against lefties over his career, his .330 wOBA and 110 wRC+ seem pretty in line with what to expect. It is a good balance from his extremely polarized 2009 and 2010 splits. In 2009 he had an awful .269 wOBA but rebounded in 2010 with a terrific .397 wOBA.

As a player, what separates him from that group is his above-average fielding at a tougher position, center field. While I do think fielding needs to be upgraded, particularly in left field, I know Charlie Manuel will not bench Raul Ibanez full time. 

He's still in his prime years, turning 27 in August, with a year left under team control. Given his pedigree, age, team control and defensive ability, the asking price probably would be slightly less than Pence, which, in my opinion, is still too high for not providing an upgrade offensively. I'd expect a package similar to Brody Colvin, Domingo Santana and another fringe prospect would do it, but I feel there are more prudent options available.

I doubt an Upton-to-Phillies trade will come to fruition, even less than acquiring Beltran or Pence, but if it does, do not expect an offensive improvement.