UFC 135: Early Breakdown of Jon Jones vs Rampage Jackson

With UFC 134 in the books, all eyes are pointed toward Jon Jones' first title defense at UFC 135.

He was originally slated to face Rashad Evans at UFC 133, but that fight was scrapped when Jones thought he had to have surgery on his hand.  Evans ended up signing up to fight Phil Davis instead, and Jones signed up to fight Rampage just two events later.

Will Jones handle Rampage the same way he handled Rua and Bader before him, or will Rampage put an abrupt end to the Jon Jones hype train with his first knockout in years?

Striking

Rampage is one of the best technical boxers in the light heavyweight division, and his effectiveness is further augmented by his one-punch knockout power. Of his 32 career wins, 14 came by knockout. He's also good at dealing damage from the clinch.

Jon Jones' striking is nothing like Rampage's.

Jon Jones uses his 84.5 inch reach to control the range, and uses a variety of kicks, knees, and elbows to catch his opponents off guard. While some have called his style overly flashy, he has yet to take punishment for it.

Rampage is the better boxer and appears to have more knockout power, but I see him being frustrated by the reach and dynamic attacks of Jones. I give a slight edge to Jones.

Advantage:  Jones

 

Submissions

Rampage has seven submission victories to his name, but they all came early in his career, mostly to weak competition. He only has one loss by submission.

Jones has three submission wins, all of them by guillotine.

I give Jones the advantage. The fight almost certainly won't end by submission, but I could imagine Jones submitting Rampage more easily than I can imagine Rampage submitting Jones.

Edge: Jones 

Takedowns/Wrestling

Jackson has some of the best takedown defense in the division.

He easily stuffed all of Matt Hamill's takedown attempts, and Rashad Evans had a hard time getting Jackson down.  He rarely uses his wrestling offensively, since he prefers to keep fights on the feet.

Jones has never been taken down, and has never had trouble getting his enemies to the ground.

He is also very good with trips and throws from the clinch.  I think Rampage's takedown defense won't be quite good enough to stop Jones.

Advantage: Jones

Cardio

Jackson has gone the distance far more than Jones has, and has also looked good in the 4th and 5th rounds the two times he's been there.

Jones has rarely gone the distance, and looked exhausted against Stephan Bonnar and Shogun Rua.

In this category, it is clear who has the edge.

Advantage: Jackson

Mentality

Heading into this fight, it is unclear if either fighter's head will be in the right place.

In recent years, Rampage has had a string of disappointing performances. He has been accused of not having his heart in the cage anymore.

Jones may have let being a champion get to his head. While he originally came off as humble, he has been seen as cocky recently. His disdain for replica belts is particularly bizarre.

Jones may not be as humble as he has been, but inside the cage he has always been focused. And Rampage has seemed more motivated as of late.

I don't think Rampage's perceived lack of heart or the champ's perceived arrogance will affect this fight.

Advantage: Even

Winner: Jones

Honestly, the only thing I think Rampage has going for him is his cardio.

He's had trouble dealing with strikers who aren't primarily boxers, and he has the added disadvantage of giving Jones an 11.5 reach advantage.

To make matters, worse, his skills on the ground don't compare with Jones'.

I can only see Jackson win if he can keep the fight on the feet until the later rounds. If he can stand with Jones for the first few rounds, his cardio could come through and he might be able to take out Jones when he tires.

But don't count on that. Expect the fight to look a lot like Jones' last fight. Jones will hurt Jackson with his striking from afar, and then use his wrestling or trips to get Jackson to the ground and pound on him.   Jones by third round TKO.