San Diego Chargers: Why They Should Win the AFC West in 2011

Yes, I'm aware that there's a lockout that is taking place that might not only wipe out a good portion of the season, but maybe even the entire season itself. I'm aware that if there is an NFL season, trades/signings may take place that change the shape and landscape of the NFL.

Let's be honest though; the Kevin Kolbs and Donovan McNabbs on the market aren't going to be traded to the AFC West; the Chargers are set with Phillip Rivers, one of the top QB's in the NFL at the moment. The Chiefs are set with Matt Cassel, who just had a Pro Bowl season and led the Chiefs to an unexpected AFC West title in 2010. The Raiders have Jason Campbell, who isn't a stud by any means, but led them to their first decent record since 2002. And finally the Broncos will in all likelihood start Tim Tebow, and if not Tebow, Brady Quinn or Kyle Orton.

So I don't think it's too premature to be predicting who will the AFC West in 2011. And quite frankly, I think it's an easy choice: It'll be the Chargers.

The San Diego Chargers have been a contender in the AFC since 2006, when Phillip Rivers took over the starting job from incumbent Drew Brees. Almost every season since, they have underachieved.

In 2010, the Chargers suffered from a large rash of injuries/off the field problems that pretty much decimated the team before the season even began. Marcus McNeill, the team's top offensive lineman and one of the top tackles in the league, held out before signing a deal in late September that enabled him to return to the lineup in Week 6. Vincent Jackson held out even longer, before eventually signing a one-year tender that would allow him to become a free agent in 2011, and only played in five games. The Chargers' rookie starting RB, Ryan Matthews, suffered through a high ankle sprain before the midpoint of the season that bothered him for the greater majority of the rest of the season, forcing converted FB Mike Tolbert to become the team's leading rusher.

The point is this: Everything needs to fall in place for the Chiefs to win the division in 2011. Overcompensating for a lack of talent, a la 2008 Miami Dolphins, the Chiefs played perfect football considering the team that they had. They committed only 14 turnovers all season long, ranking second in the league. That won't happen again. Matt Cassel threw only seven interceptions on the season; he already started showing cracks in the armor in his final two games of 2010.

Cassel had QB ratings of under 20 vs. the Raiders in the season finale and in the playoff game against the Ravens. He threw 0 TD's and 5 INT's and completed under four yards an attempt in the passing game.

With Charlie Weiss departing and teams having tape of those games that Cassel had, the Chiefs are doomed to have a reality check in 2011.

The fact of the matter is this; Cassel is an OK Quarterback. He is not a great QB, he is not even a good QB. He is a guy that can manage an offense and not screw up. His greatest asset is in fact that very thing: He doesn't screw up very often. He would rather take a sack than throw a pick; this was evidenced when he was sacked 47 times in 2008 with the Patriots; by comparison Brady was sacked 21 times in 2007 behind the same O-Line.

Cassel cannot win games for a team. If he is asked to lead a team to a shootout victory, that is not something that is in his grasp. He cannot carry an offense. What he can do is be a game manager. There's nothing wrong with that. Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson won Super Bowls doing the exact same thing. The only difference was they had the greatest defenses of the 21st century supporting them.

Cassel is an average QB who had his weaknesses masked in 2010 by a great coordinator in Weiss. The Chiefs ranked 30th in passing yards and 23rd in yards per attempt. When throwing the ball past 10 yards, Cassel's arm strength/accuracy is terrible. The Raiders and Ravens exposed those weaknesses.

The Chiefs have a good young nucleus, but it simply won't be enough to battle the firepower that the Chargers have. Despite the Chiefs winning the division, the Chargers could have been argued as being just as good a team as the Chiefs were in 2010, if not better. The point differential for the Chiefs was plus 40, while it was plus 119 for the Chargers.

The Chargers killed the Chiefs 31-0 in Week 14, while they lost to the Chiefs by a TD in the season opener, in which special teams gaffes cost them.

In the final nine games of the season, the Chargers went 7-2. That's not a good sign if you're a KC fan.

As for the Raiders, the firing of Tom Cable will have a negative effect on the team. Most likely they'll still finish in 3rd in the division, maybe even 2nd if McFadden can continue his rapid progression as a RB and Campbell can contribute more than game manager statistics at the QB position. A lot also depends on the situation of Asomugha. If he leaves, the defense suffers big time. He is arguably the second best CB in the league, behind Darrelle Revis.

Denver will go through a lot of growing pains in 2011, regardless of who starts at QB. Tim Tebow gives Denver a better chance to compete, as his mobility creates and extends plays, something that is needed behind a porous pass blocking O-Line, and something that neither Kyle Orton or Brady Quinn can provide.

Even if Vincent Jackson and/or Malcolm Floyd depart in Free Agency, the Chargers will win the division in 2011, barring some sort of catastrophic injury to Phillip Rivers, Antonio Gates or Marcus McNeill.

It's their division to lose.