Auburn Tigers Football: 9 Worst-Case Scenarios for 2011

Auburn’s coaching staff and players face a gauntlet this season as they inch closer to kickoff. Losing all but six starters to graduation and the draft will put Auburn in a tough spot this coming season. Add to that the difficult schedule that waits, and this could be a very bad year for the Tigers.

How quickly the Tigers adjust to the huge challenges that loom this season will go a long way in determining their success in 2011. The Tigers aren’t likely to make a return to the BCS title game, but they have a fair shot at a bowl game and a winning season.

If Auburn can’t hit the ground running, this could be a very bad year for the Tigers and their fans. This could easily be a repeat of the ’08 season but is more likely to mimic the ’09 season as far as record. If certain aspects of the Tigers roster are not ironed out by September 3, this could be a long and grueling campaign for Chizik and Co. in their third year.

There are some scenarios that could turn the season down the wrong path if they make it into reality this year. For the Tigers, these are nine scenarios that they don’t want to see come to be.

Frazier Starts Day One

There is no denying that Kiehl Frazier is the most athletically talented quarterback on the Plains entering the 2011 season. He has been in the Malzahn system his entire career in high school and should have a very easy transition into the system this coming fall.

With that being said, Auburn does not want to be in the position where a true freshman earns the starting nod at quarterback game one. Yes Frazier will most likely have a very productive career as a Tiger and will likely earn starts and playing time by the end of the 2011 season. Throwing him to the wolves in Week 1 is not the best scenario, however.

Granted, none of the quarterbacks on roster have had any significant exposure in a game setting, but they have been in a collegiate system for three years and have been a part of a national championship team. The preparation at the collegiate level is a leap above what Frazier was use to in high school. Getting acclimated to college life and the rigors of college football will be enough not to want to rely on an 18-year-old to lead the defending champions from day one.

The Tigers Start 1-2

Auburn is not likely to lose to Utah State in the season opener. However, follow that up with games against a much improved Mississippi State and a road game to Clemson, and the schedule hits a rough patch pretty quickly.

Mississippi State is the sleeper in the SEC West this season. They have a have a very talented offensive backfield and return the majority of their defensive starters. Clemson loses starting quarterback Kyle Parker to baseball but returns a very athletic and talented team. Clemson will be more than happy to hand the Tigers a lossm and so will the Bulldogs.

Auburn will need to gel on the offensive and defensive lines early if they are to survive these two contests. They need to find a quarterback as well. These two games will set the tone for the Tigers season early. Wins will be a huge boost; losses will be a crushing blow. If the Tigers start 1-2, hang on tight, Auburn, because the ride is going to be bumpy.

The Tigers Lose October

October is a huge month for the Tigers in 2011. With a five Saturday stretch and three away games, the Tigers have to be shooting for finishing above .500. With every game being a conference game in October, the stakes are extremely high for the Tigers.

Auburn needs to win at least three of the five games to stay competitive in the SEC West and also to maintain a manageable and winning season. The Tigers have a tough start, with Mississippi State visiting in Week 2 and an away game to Clemson in Week 3. Entering the middle of the season, the Tigers may already have a loss.

If Auburn does not survive October, it will haunt them for the last month of the season and can lead to Auburn having a losing season and missing a bowl game.

Blakely Not Cleared

The Tigers have gained a lot of talent at the running back position this offseason with the acquisitions of Mike Blakely from Florida and most recently Corey Grant from Alabama. The problem for the Tigers is that Grant will not be eligible until 2012, and Blakely may have to sit this season as well. As of now, he is not cleared to play in 2011.

Auburn only has three scholarship backs on the team as it stands today. The Tigers coaching staff has to be on pins and needles awaiting the answer on Blakely’s eligibility. If it is granted, then Auburn will have Dyer, McCalebb, Anthony Morgan and Blakely. With the assumption that Tre Mason qualifies this season, Auburn could have five backs.

If Mason somehow fails to qualify and Blakely is not granted his waiver, the Tigers will be one injury away from a critically low level of ball carriers in a run heavy offense. That is not a good problem to have.

Injuries at Running Back and Offensive Line

As previously stated, Auburn is not overwhelmingly deep at the running back position heading into the fall. One injury to Dyer or McCalebb, and the Tigers may be down for the count. An even mix of carries has to be used this season to keep guys on their feet. McCalebb has to show an ability to carry more often and inside the tackles for Auburn not to be worried about an injury scenario.

On the offensive line, Auburn has a ton of talent but a severe lack of experience. Last season, when A.J. Greene went down to injury, it seemed like a striking blow had occurred. Brandon Moseley stepped up his game and became a formidable starter for the Tigers.

If Auburn sustains an injury on the offensive line this season, however, there isn’t an upperclassman that can step in and help. The second string offensive line will be full of redshirt and true freshmen, so the Tigers will need to do all they can to keep legs fresh and guys ready to come off of the sideline. The more exposure that the younger players can get early against the lower tiered opponents will go a long way in helping shore up depth for the future.

Offensive Line Breakdown

The offensive line is one of the most glaring issues heading into the coming season. There are three seniors and a junior slated to earn starts and possibly a freshman or sophomore at center. After that, Auburn is talented but young.

The worst case scenario for the line is to have a major breakdown early. If the Tigers can’t find guys that can gel and play well together, it will make for a long season. Jeff Grimes does a great job at coaching up these players, but he has been dealt quite a talented hand the past two seasons.

Auburn wants to run the ball. The basis of the offense is to run first and open the pass and play action. Without a line that can dominate and control the line of scrimmage, the rushing yards won’t happen. If there is a breakdown mentally or physically on the offensive line this season, it will be a long year.

Defensive Line Is Porous

The most experienced interior linemen the Tigers will field this season are rising sophomores. That is a problem. Jeffery Whitaker and Kenneth Carter are extremely talented, but they are young and very inexperienced.

Add to that fact that Angelo Blackson and Gabe Wright, both true freshmen, are likely to contribute early and often for the Tigers. These guys are talented, but throwing around a high school junior is a little different than trying to throw around a college senior. How the young guys acclimate will go a long way in determining the success of the Tiger defense.

On the outside, Nosa Eguae is the most veteran starter and is a redshirt sophomore. The talent is overwhelming on the outside, however, and is not likely to be a weakness for the Auburn defense. If the Auburn interior can’t produce stops, look for the Chizik and Co. to get very creative with the formations to ensure the most productive talent is on the field.

Auburn Goes 0-2 Through Amen Corner

Losing to Georgia is bad for Auburn. Losing to Alabama is worse. Losing to them both in the same season is practically unmentionable in most Auburn circles. That being said, it could happen this year. Going in between the hedges is never easy, and the Bulldogs will be ready to return the favor of a loss to the Tigers.

Alabama will be poised and ready as they enter Jordan-Hare Stadium in late November. The Tide will likely be on their way to Atlanta to play for the SEC title and will look for the final victory of the season against Auburn.

If Auburn loses both of these games, it would be hard to assume they make it to a bowl game. There isn’t enough wiggle room with the schedule to lose these two to close the season. If this scenario plays out in 2011, it will be a very disappointing season for the Tigers.

The Tigers Don’t Go Bowling

This scenario is not too farfetched. There are some who believe that the Tigers missing a bowl this season is simply inevitable. Losing to your most hated rivals is one thing; missing a bowl game is a whole different story.

Auburn found itself in a losing scenario in 2008. The fans and players don’t want to repeat that terrible showing on the field, but it may happen. If Auburn loses more than three games in October, this may become a very real scenario. The Tigers like making history, but not returning to a bowl game the year after a championship is not the legacy that anyone wants to own.