Alabama Football: What Are Alabama's Worst Case Scenarios for 2011?

Last year proved that you could still have a 10-win season and have it be a very disappointing season. The Tide was picked to repeat, yet it was solidly beaten by South Carolina to start a series of stumbles that mired what could have been a good season.

The best news for Tide fans is that worst case scenario is perhaps another 10-win season. There's just too much talent on this team to have anything less, but how that scenario plays out is the subject on conjecture here and spells out the possible scenarios that could ruin Alabama's season, not the improbable ones and give you the odds of these scenarios happening.

An Early Stumble Against Penn State

Penn State and Alabama have a storied rivalry, Joe Paterno still has a few tricks up his well worn sleeves and the excitement from the big "White Out" event could propel them to play over their heads and upset the visiting Crimson Tide.

Since Alabama whipped them like red headed step children last year, there might be a little complacency in approaching this game. That would be a mistake. Momentum could be a monster and the Tide doesn't need it to rear it's ugly head at a loud and emotional opponent's home field.

Another early season stumble like last year's South Carolina game could set the stage for another let down year in Tuscaloosa.

Odds that this could happen? 30 percent

Getting Upset in the SEC Opening Game Against Arkansas

Last year the Tide had to come from behind with 10 points in the fourth quarter to get by Arkansas at Fayetteville. They did this one the legs of Mark Ingram and a stout fourth quarter defense than finally cooled off Ryan Mallet.

This year neither team has either star that led the team on that day, but the battle should be just as intense. Bobby Petrino is showing why he's worth the big boy money he's making and he's building a solid team at Arkansas from the ground up.

They say you never know what you have until you play another SEC team and both teams will find out after this game where they stand in the SEC power curve.

A loss by Alabama here could not only end their hope of an SEC title, but certainly kill any BCS Championship talk as well.

Odds that this could happen? 40 percent

Being caught by surprise by the NEW Florida Gators

Last season, it appeared that not only Urban Meyer was tired and headed to retirement, but so were the Gator team themselves.

Alabama simply embarrassed them 31-6 and could have made it look much worse had Saban not called off the dogs. That sets up two situations that could play against Alabama this fall in a rematch between these two teams.

1. That Alabama be over confident with the Gators this year after such a thumping, and...

2. That Florida is focused on revenge for such an embarrassing loss.

Also keep in mind that this is not the same Gator team that Alabama played last year, still fumbling with the Tebow offense without Tebow. Charlie Weis will have the offense much more suited to the talent at hand and they will put points on the board this year.

Plus Will Muschamp will have a tougher defense to contend with instead of the one that Alabama run through like damp toilet paper last year. Also keep in mind that this year's game is in the swamp where other opponents have been caught napping.

Odds that this could happen? 35 percent

Losing to an Undefeated LSU at Home

LSU could and should be undefeated coming into Bryant Denny Stadium for a November fifth showdown with the Tide. This game may not only settle who will be the SEC West Champion, but the SEC Champion as well as the team who may be picked to play in the BCS National Championship Game.

This is a game where everything is on the line for the Tide if they too make it this deep in the season. This will be the undisputed game of the week or even for the month of November. Many may even call it the real national championship game.

Losing this game, at home, in a year with so much riding on it, would be a disaster for Alabama and will leave them mulling this loss over for years in the "What could have been" category. With the head to head match up being the tie breaker, a loss here would spell doom even if LSU is tripped up somewhere else along the way.

Odds that this could happen? 49 percent

Not Taking the Mississippi State Bulldogs Seriously Enough

Odds are that when the invite the Crimson Tide down to Starkville for this November 12th contest that the Dogs could be rated and therefore harder to simply overlook.

The team should forget that they beat this team handily last year and remember that this team won nine games and had losses that were oh so close to the eventual national champions Auburn, and a heart breaking overtime loss to Arkansas.

This game is in the Dogs yard and they return the nucleus of the team that simply got better as the year went on until they simply destroyed Michigan in the Gator Bowl 52-14 and could have easily made that score look much worse than it was.

The Bulldogs have a history of being able to bite the Tide when they're not giving it everything they've got and they should well remember this.

Plus, should the Tide win an emotional game over LSU, they might be a position to relax after such a win and with State being next in line just seven days later, than would be a huge mistake.

Odds that this could happen? 35 percent

Having an Auburn Team Teetering on Being Borderline Terrible This Year Beat Alabama

Losing this game to Auburn after clearing all the other hurdles would simply be wrist cutting type time for many of the Alabama faithful.

If knocked Alabama out of any chance of playing in the BCS National Championship Game, then wrist cutting might be a little light. Should Bama be beaten by a team that is undergoing this type of rebuilding year and struggling with all the issues they'll be undergoing all season long.

Odds that this could happen? 10 percent

Having Alabama get all the way to the BCS National Championship Game and Lose

Finally, a worst case scenario for Alabama fans would actually be a best case scenario for almost any other team in college football and that would be to simply have a season worthy of being in the title game.

But Alabama fans aren't most fans.

Getting this far and not taking home the crystal ball would be a bad season and another worse case scenario for Alabama.

Odds that this could happen? 50 percent

Other Worse Case Scenarios for Alabama Might be... And the Odds of it Happening

Trent Richardson to be injured early in the year and be unavailable....20 percent

A quarterback controversy that splits the team.....5 percent

A slew of 4 or more key players being injured.....10 percent

Saban leaving for the NFL.....0 percent